TRIALS WEEKEND HAS BEEN LOST: As we struggle with low-level racing, Daqman is grateful to the sender of this definition: ‘There is very little substance to it, very little connection with known form, and very little likelihood that the result will ever be repeated.’
❌ ABANDONED: Lingfield and Market Rasen today, leaving AW cards at Wolverhampton (ITV) and Newcastle.
🗓️ SATURDAY: Ascot and Haydock trials tomorrow have already gone. Taunton inspected this morning (BETDAQTIPS UPDATE: now also ABANDONED).
🗓️ SUNDAY: Lingfield Winter Million card inspects 2pm tomorrow
LOVES LIVERPOOL FENCES YET 31.0: More ante-post ideas today, as Daqman checks out a horse with huge experience of the Grand National who is changing his running style. Currently offered at 31.0.
BEACH OF A BET FOR THE NATIONAL
CAN Coko Beach still win a big race? I should cocoa! Could it be the Grand National? If you think so, get on before next Thursday with the Betdaq Betting Exchange Sportsbook (he’s 31.0),
He was eighth at Aintree in 2022, but pulled up last year, so what’s changed? Well, tactics have changed.
In his first Grand National (when only seven years old), he led or disputed the lead early on; and on his second attempt, he led much of the way until a mistake at the 18th. Two things have happened since.
Many horses subjected to such efforts over the big fences at Liverpool tend to either lose their speed or lose their way altogether; rarely are they the same again over regulation fences.
But Coko Beach (pictured below) came back in the autumn, third in the Munster National, still racing prominently; then he won the Troytown Chase – a career best performance – in both races giving lumps of weight to the other placed horses.
The last day, trainer Gordon Elliott effected a change which keeps him in line for the National. Coko Beach did NOT front-run in the Becher Chase in December.
He dropped out and did not make his effort until two out, going second at the last in the 3m 2f test over the National fences. Again, he gave a trench load of weight to the two others in the frame.
I am now hoping to see the revitalised and newly tactical Coko Beach run in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park a week today. It’s a race he won in 2021, but is officially a 23lb better horse and maybe more if held up!
POWER TO 14.0 BETDAQ OFFER
⭕ 1.40 Wolverhampton Legacy Power seemed to need further than the 1m 4f when second here in November and this extra quarter-mile may be the answer.
Palace Boy’s hurdles rating had him well in here just after Christmas and he obliged with a six-lengths victory over the CD.
It’s almost two years since Educator won a race but he hasn’t been far away in class 2 and 3 for William Haggas, though has since moved to Michael Appleby.
The grey Aqwaam won back to back at Chelmsford and Newcastle in November (Animato second in first-time cheekpieces, Haaland sixth) but fell short by a couple of pounds in his December starts at Southwell, and is raised again today to joint 10st topweight with Educator.
Similarly, the overall 7lb rise for back-to-back wins in September has seen a further 3lb rise for Artisan Dancer as he hit the bar seven times in a row: 3222323.
It’s more than two years since Moliwood made the winner’s enclosure and Marco Botti ‘got shut’ in August.
BETDAQ value: 14 Legacy Power
DOUBLE BOOST TO EDEN’S FORM
⭕ 2.15 Wolverhampton Al Farabi was giving weight to the winner in each of his length defeats since scoring at Kempton as a novice. Well drawn here as one who likes to be up with the pace.
Follow Your Heart and Johnny James were one-two over today’s CD in December, with the runner-up now 5lb better off to claw back the length between them that day. The one stall is offputting.
Eden Storm is 121 here, both wins over CD, and his stable is in form. His runner-up in late December, Smoky Mountain, won before and after that race, favourite for all three.
BETDAQ value: 9.8 Eden Storm
REACH FOR THIS WOLVER FAN
⭕ 2.50 Wolverhampton Down in the depths of class 6 again, where we have a 12-year-old among the topweights over 7f.
But, don’t laugh, Fieldsman is a CD winner, well handicapped despite a win and second at Southwell recently.
Snag is his overall form at Wolver: he lines up for his 127th race with course figures of 200010032440200; that’s 14-1, just how I see him, not the morning offer of 5.9, but this is not normal racing.
Off the same mark is another CD winner, eight-years-younger Outreach, currently 221 at Wolver.
Van Zant’s sole success also came over the CD. Sea The Buckthorn was unlucky behind him, fourth, twice ‘not clear run’. But he’s now 0-12 on AW, so it may be that he doesn’t want to see daylight!
BETDAQ value 4.5 Outreach, 5.6 Van Zant
DEVORE LOOKS BETTER CLASS
⭕ 3.25 Wolverhampton James Fanshawe hasn’t had a winter winner and his last runner was beaten at odds-on here at Wolver on Monday.
That may not stop Fast Affair but it stops me backing the filly, who was also a beaten Fanshawe favourite the last day.
Adrian Wintle has had winners this month with Pessoa and Soi Dao. Pessoa has been beaten since, and Soi Dao is unlikely to hold her form. Last time she won, 15 defeats were to follow.
Third behind Soi Dao, Noble Sovereign hung badly and Hollie Doyle is brought in to try to straighten her out. Ellexis has won only her maiden, always a bad sign.
Grant Tuer, who scored two days running at Wolver earlier this week, has P J Macdonald back on Catrake Force, who started the winter well, second on this course.
Mark Loughnane also had winners on two different days at Wolver last weekend, and Devore ran – and won one – in much better company for Johnny Murtagh in Ireland.
BETDAQ value: 21 Devore, 24 Catrake Force
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 1.5pts win and place LEGACY POWER
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) PALACE BOY
2.15 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win and place EDEN STORM (nap)
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) AL FARABI
2.50 Wolverhampton (win 12)
BET 3.5pts win OUTREACH
BET 2.5pts win VAN ZANT
3.25 Wolverhampton (win 20 plus)
BET 1pt win and place DEVORE
BET 1pt win and place CATRAKE FORCE
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