DAQMAN LANDS YORK ONE-TWO THREE TIMES: Daqman named winner and second yesterday in his verdicts on three York races: the Lowther Stakes (Lucky Kristale WON 5-2 and Queen Catrine 2nd 6-1), the Yorkshire Oaks (The Fugue WON 2-1 and Venus De Milo 2nd 9-4), and the Galtres Stakes (Our Obsession WON 3-1 and Say 2nd 4-1). His naps are currently 12112 and there is a banker today at Newmarket.
‘MOVIE’ CAN STAR IN THE NUNTHORPE: Daqman rates Moviesta’s improvement and opposes the favourites again today, finding massive value on BETDAQ, with one list of offers on a level playing field 100%, on a day when the meeting opened with 130% Total SP last year.
1.55 York This looks wide open, with 6.2 the field on BETDAQ but a 105% list of offers means that the orange is punter-friendly, and we should take an early position.
The plan, of course, is to find something that will close later in the day, so that you can lay off, hedge, or find a second shot. Over my cornflakes, I have to try to cover all eventualities.
There has been watering after firm ground spoiled several chances yesterday. Kiama Bay is going for a hat-trick in this, but his form on top of the ground this year is 14th, 13th, 3rd.
Chancery tried for his hat-trick last time but a rise of 19lb and a leap of two grades found him out and, at five, he is unlikely to make further improvement.
Ryan Moore reckons Gospel Choir (8.2 on BETDAQ), giving weight all round, may need the run after time off following injury, and White Nile is another whose fitness for this has to be taken on trust.
I’d rather chance it with Stoute (horses running to 70% potential) than Simcock. Stoute’s record in today’s race is 12102.
I prefer Simcock’s other runner, Castilo Del Diablo, though that one can’t beat Mark Johnston’s Scatter Dice on Spring form at Salisbury.
Scatter Dice (trading at 13.0) has been in poor form since then, until a good run – a real sharpener – at Chester six days ago, and is better off now with the winner, Kiama Bay, who was second in today’s race in 2011. Scatter Dice is a front-runner, suited by the way York has been racing this week.
Winterlude should come on for his Doncaster success but it was a poor class-2 with the second horse home – Come On Blue Chip – a class-4 animal. Same with the third.
Incidentally, my man in the long grass, with his Telescope out, reckons Psychometry (2.10) a good thing at Newmarket from the gallops, with Kieren Fallon whisked from York to ride. Stoutie’s other runner, Alex Vino (3.20), provides a stakes saver.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Gospel Choir, 2 Scatter Dice, 3 Winterlude.
2.30 York (Lonsdale Cup) Yesterday Our Obsession was clear in the BETDAQ market by 8 a.m. – a tip in itself – and this morning the early-doors wolves were gobbling up the offers about Simenon, though the orange remained a juicy 101%.
Simenon was only fourth in the Chester Cup but the handicapper reckons he improved half-a-stone on that to get within a quarter of a length of Estimate in the Ascot Gold Cup on firm ground.
Glen’s Diamond is expected to set the pace he needs. ‘Diamond’ made all at York over 1m 6f but, held up to get the 2m trip, he quickly lost interest in the Goodwood Cup, where Ahzeemah finished second after three good runs at Group level (figures of 122), including a Group 1.
Times Up (6.0 on BETDAQ as I write in a dead-on 100% list in the orange) won this race last year (Simenon 5th, Askar Tau 6th, Glen’s Diamond behind) – he’s also twice beaten Colour Vision – and has clearly had this as his target for some time.
Caucus was the ‘moral’ over Estimate in May just beaten when giving weight and loves today’s ground. Simenon’s poor York form puts me off a bet, and Ahzeemah is a perennial bridesmaid, who could again be placed without winning.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Times Up, 2 Caucus, 3 Simenon
3.05 York (Strensall Stakes) With Kieren Fallon at Newmarket, Andrea Atzeni comes in for the ride on Danadana. I’d had him in my notebook as a Cambridgeshire horse but he looks too high in the handicap.
That suggests Luca Cumani must attack the lower-grade Group races and this is ideal, just as long as there is no rain. Danadana loves to hear his feet rattle
It should enable him to to confirm Spring form with Gabrial, who ran well last time out, though the softish ground was against him. Also back to form is Robin Hood’s Bay, with Jonny Murtagh booked.
I can’t have Archbishop with Brian Meehan out of form (J Wonder flopped in the Lowther Stakes here yesterday).
Pavlosk would seemingly prefer soft ground, though the market says otherwise. As for City Style, I’ve already won big money in this column (laying Soft Falling Rain), because I opposed Meydan form.
I’ll take Danadana (8.6 on BETDAQ was too big this morning) and give Murtagh a chance on Robin Hood’s Bay (7.6).
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Danadana, 2 Robin Hood’s Bay.
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes) Pattern-race form, particularly a good run in the Group-2 King George sprint at Goodwood, account for eight of the last 10 winners of this.
Three-year-olds have won twice in the last three seasons and are the dominant age group (40% trike rate).
The three-year-old Moviesta (7.0 on BETDAQ as I write) has improved 30lb this season on official figures and won that key race, the King George. The mare Ladies Are Forever was unlucky that date, fifth after twice having to be switched
Those who opposed Shea Shea’s Meydan form were rewarded with successful lays in the Kings Stand (Sole Power reversed Meydan form) and in the July Cup (only fourth when Slade Power was third.
Shea Shea is back to his best trip, and they will say he was hampered behind Sole Power in the Kings Stand, but I’m not sure about the firm ground: his only run on such a sound surface was his July Cup defeat, albeit over 6f.
Slade Power and Sole Power will both like the ground and are locked together on 116 (official ratings). Swiss Spirit and Spirit Quartz – needs rain – are not far behind but I hope to see Moviesta’s continued improvement.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Moviesta, 2 Shea Shea, 3 Ladies Are Forever
DAQMAN’S BETS:
all main win bets to win 30 points, except the banker.
YORK LAYS: 10pts Simenon (2.30) 10pts Pavlosk (3.05).
GOLD VALUE BETS: 4.2pts win GOSPEL CHOIR, 2.5pts win SCATTER DICE and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) WINTERLUDE (1.55 York)
BANKER: 20pts win (nap) PSYCHOMETRY (2.10 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BET: 6pts win TIMES UP and 4.8pts win CAUCUS (2.30 York)
GOLD VALUE BET: 4.5pts win ROBIN HOOD’S BAY and 4pts win DANADANA (3.05 York)
BET 3.75pts win and place ALEX VINO (3.20 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BET: 5pts win MOVIESTA and 1pt win and place LADIES ARE FOREVER, with 1.6pts win (stakes saver) SHEA SHEA (3.40 York)
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