NUNTHORPE DAY TODAY AFTER 19.0 SHOT MISSES STRIKE BY A HEAD: Just painful glimpses of York cash for Daqman yesterday from gambled-on Wings Of War (3rd 9-2 from 7.6 on BETDAQ) and bull’s-eye-bet Magical Morning (2nd 12-1, beaten a head, from 19.0 on BETDAQ). The top of the tips stable looks like this for day three, Nunthorpe day:
DAQMAN 50, PRICEWISE 29
SUPERNAPS 13-17 (76%)
LAYS LOGIC 12-17 (70%)
FORTUNE COOKIES 9-21 (42%)
BIG BETDAQ OFFERS: 14.0 TO 40.0 AS DAQMAN BIDS FOR BULL’S EYE: When is a race not a betting race? When it’s a procession led by Snowfall or a 17-runner York handicap in which, officially, they’re all equal. But, undaunted, Daqman today tries a 30-point nap to cover expenses for a killing on some big, big BETDAQ prices: 14.0, 15.5, 16.5, plus 40.0 and more. Headlines:
A GOLDEN DAY FOR THE NUNTHORPE
THIS IS DARK JEDI’S PERSONAL EBOR
STRATUM PRIMED FOR THE LONSDALE
A STAR GIMCRACK OUTSIDER AT 40.0
A GOLDEN DAY FOR THE NUNTHORPE
⭕ 3.35 York (Nunthorpe Stakes) Older horses (aged five and more) have won 11 times this century, and it’s 10 years since a three-year-old scored. Yet here we are with FOUR three-year-olds at the front of the market; 20.0 next in the BETDAQ orange this morning, and he’s two-year-old!
So I shall treat this as two races: the Big Four against the Rest, one bet from each. The going: good. The odds: good on BETDAQ (103 total percentages this morning) but in the last two years – the Battaash years – the SP total was 120% in each case.
BIG FOUR: I put up Golden Pal in Fortune Cookies. We know him as runner-up in the Norfolk as a 2yo (softish ground). The winner, rated 107, has never troubled the judge again!
But Golden Pal has left scorched earth behind him in America on fast ground over half a furlong further than today, prompting trainer Wesley Ward to say: ‘could be the best I’ve ever trained’.
He replaced the same stable’s Campanelle in the Cookies list after the French authorities refused to allow her pony companion at Deauville, and she sulked and finished last.
I mention Campanelle, because she ran up to Dragon Symbol in the Commonwealth Cup so, if Golden Pal is better, as suggested, he will not fear that one. Nor will Suesa.
Suesa beat Dragon Symbol (‘no match for winner,’ says Raceform) in the King George sprint at Goodwood. That leaves Winter Power, who has won at York twice, but whose Group form is also on soft.
THE REST: That brings in Moss Gill, a length in front of Winter Power here last month but now 2lb better off, though a bit of a bridesmaid with this year’s form: 2022.
Same goes for Arecibo (224 above handicap company), fourth to Suesa at Goodwood (Liberty Beach 10th).
Chil Chil is a strong traveller but the three-year-old who was second to him at Newcastle (6f) was only ninth behind Suesa at Goodwood.
Starman doesn’t run but supplies some clues: he slammed Dragon Symbol in the July Cup, and was third in Suesa’s Deauville race. Came to prominence when the winner at York (6f) last September, getting 6lb from Dakota Gold.
Dakota is lightly raced this season, as is stablemate Que Amoro, but Dakota Gold needs rain to show his best, on all known form.
Que Amoro, a CD winner at York, was beaten only a length by Battaash in the Nunthorpe (good) a year ago. Trainer Michael Dods and jockey Paul Mulrennan won the race two years running with Mecca’s Angel (2015-16).
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE 4.0 Golden Pal, 60.0 Que Amoro
THIS IS DARK JEDI’S PERSONAL EBOR
⭕ 1.50 York That trend to three-year-olds continues here with Wink Of An Eye and State Of Bliss the market leaders for this 1m 4f handicap, but none of that age group has won it in the decade; it’s been a 9-1 win for four-year-olds.
Outright favourites have also drawn a blank but only one real long-shot has scored. Second in this a year ago, Dark Jedi has been the one for the money in the week, as Tim Easterby struck on the first two days with Copper Knight and Cruyff Turn.
Easterby planned for Jedi to win a stars war in the Ebor but he didn’t get in.
Throne Hall is 2-2 after a break and is a hidden horse after two tries at 1m 6f. Third in the Ebor trial here in May after being slow away.
BETDAQ value 14.0 Dark Jedi, 16.5 Throne Hall
STRATUM PRIMED FOR THE LONSDALE
⭕ 2.25 York (Lonsdale Cup) After back-to-back wins for Stradivarius, he missed last year’s race and Enbihaar won it for the same John Gosden stable from a staying-on Stratum, whose hurdles run at Ballybrit can be regarded as a primer.
Stradivarius was back to form in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot in the Spring but must now renew rivalry with Trueshan, who took his British Champions Long-Distance crown in October (Spanish Mission 7th, Stradivarius 12th).
A decision on whether mudlark Trueshan takes part will be made by trainer Alan King after he and some of the jockeys have walked the course. ‘Good ground would be ok,’ he said.
Gold Cup third Spanish Mission has his last UK outing before bidding for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup races, and I see a one-two Stratum and Spanish Mission.
BETDAQ value 4.0 Spanish Mission, 15.5 Stratum
A STAR GIMCRACK OUTSIDER AT 40.0
⭕ 3.00 York (Gimcrack Stakes) They don’t reckon to win this with a Group penalty but punters are relying on the experience of Lusail (July Stakes) and Berkshire Shadow who beat Eldrickjones and Vintage Clarets (a 5f horse) in the Coventry.
Eldrickjones has let the form down since and Berkshire Shadow was outpointed over a furlong further at Goodwood
The snag with Lusail is that trainer Richard Hannon has had a poor York so far, with strongly-fancied 11-4 and 11-2 shots both out of the frame.
But boosting Lusail is his yard’s defeat of Fearby in the Molecomb. American Star is a possible outsider, related to speed and stamina, and actually bought to run here and win this race.
BETDAQ value 4.4 Berkshire Shadow, 40.0 American Star
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 York (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 3.75pts win DARK JEDI
BET 3.25pts win THRONE HALL
2.25 York (win 50 bull’s-eye bet, win 10)
BET 3.5pts win STRATUM
BET 3.25pts win SPANISH MISSION
3.00 York (win 30 nap; win 50 bull’s-eye bet, 10 place)
BET 8.75pts win BERKSHIRE SHADOW
BET 1.25pts win and place AMERICAN STAR
3.35 York
FORTUNE COOKIES
BET 10pts win GOLDEN PAL
WIN-60 BULL’S-EYE BET (12 place)
BET 1pt win and place QUE AMORO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
