BETDAQ 10.0 IS 13-2 BULL’S EYE: Daqman’s winning 50-point Bull’s-Eye Bet, Stormy Clouds (WON 13-2 from 10.0 on BETDAQ yesterday), reads like an omen for today when the ground for the big York meeting could all change with rain that’s sweeping the country.
CLICKETY-CLICK! HE’S WON 66: Daqman drew 1-1 with Pricewise but won easily on value, the bull’s eye putting him 66-29 up. The rest of the results made it a nearly day, with best returns per race 1222, the most frustrating Mustashry’s late finish in the big-field handicap at 5-1.
COOKIE COULD PAY 860-POINT FORTUNE: Today and tomorrow, Daqman winds up his current Fortune Cookies, with massive returns if one of them can win this afternoon’s Nunthorpe Stakes. See: Cookie could pay 860-point fortune. His banker is in the Lonsdale Cup.
‘BIG’ BARSANTI NEVER RUNS A BAD RACE
1.55 York This won’t take much winning. It’s good to see a 24lb range in the handicap but, with the exception of Dawn Missile and Dominada, the bottom half are older horses with form at a much lower level.
Dominada seems to have slipped down the ranks from class 2 to class 4 and first-time cheekpieces would have to find him 10lb on form with Yorkidding.
Dawn Missile has shown temperament and I’m surprised not to see some kind of headgear from a stable that does so well at this meeting.
Luca Cumani’s Shakopee acts on any going and should improve for the trip. You can ignore his stinker at Goodwood behind Stars Over The Sea for Mark Johnston, who has a strong form hand with that one and Yorkidding (drifted badly this morning and seems to prefer a firm surface).
Barsanti, who has risen 30lb through the ranks from class 6 to Listed level inside a year and never runs a bad race, may not have stopped improving. His sire gets soft-ground winners.
Barsanti started winning when he left Cumani for Roger Varian, whose stable is on a high with Postponed’s success this week, and four-year-olds with more weight than 9st 10lb have won this twice in the last five years.
BETDAQ VALUE (105% overround): Though they are 6.6 and 8.6 respectively that’s big for Barsanti and ‘hidden horse’ Shakopee since, apart from the Johnston duo (one drifted badly), it’s a poor-quality class 2.
PARIS SETS THE GOLD-MEDAL STANDARD
2.30 York (Lonsdale Cup) Clever Cookie finished only half a length up on Curbyourenthusiasm in a race of this level, the Yorkshire Cup (1m 6f), here in the Spring.
Curb’s try at 2m was inconclusive, as he was held up out the back door in the Goodwood Cup on fast ground, when Pallasator (acts on any going) was runner-up, with Wicklow Brave (wins on heavy) and Quest For More behind.
Trip To Paris. 4.3 on BETDAQ at the time of writing, has been disappointing since his Chester Cup and Gold Cup double last year but that’s largely because of Mission Australia (fourth in the Melbourne Cup) and he’s a fresh horse, with just one run back over shorter in July.
This field has only two Group-2s among them, silver medals to Trip To Paris’s gold of Group-1 standard. He’s won on good to soft.
Curbyourenthusiasm, also only five years old, is 11201 under Jamie Spencer and can turn around the form with Clever Cookie but has work to do with Pallasator if he’s in the mood to tough it out.
BIRCHWOOD CAN HIT THE BULL’S-EYE
3.05 York (City of York Stakes) Seventh Heaven won yet another Group-1 for the Classic generation yesterday, and allowances for four three-year-olds here could be decisive.
Both Birchwood and Nemoralia are either Group-1 placed or Group-2 winners in this Group 3.
A lot depends whether the rain has arrived for Birchwood, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on yielding and won at Chester on soft. Forget his Goodwood runs (didn’t act there this year or last) and delete his Group 1s and his form is 113101
Nemoralia was third in the fillies’ Juvenile on the same Keeneland junket, and second in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot on the soft to Qemah, who has since won her second Group 1
Forge has to catch up on these two but there’s no saying a colt in the hands of Sir Michael Stoute can’t do that.
Librisa Breeze is Dean Ivory’s fourth runner at the Ebor meeting (two have won for 67%) and So Beloved is a late developer and a specialist at 7f whose trainer is emerging from a lean spell during stable rebuilding.
BETDAQ VALUE (102% overround): The older horses are most unlikely to stop Nemoralia – backed to win 20 points at 3.45 – and the well overpriced Birchwood, who is taken to win 50 at 13.5.
COOKIE COULD PAY 860-POINT FORTUNE
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes) If the rain that’s threatened arrives for the big race, Mecca’s Angel and Profitable could oust Limato from the favourite’s spot at the front of the BETDAQ market, which totalled 104% this morning, alongside the 125% Total SP when Mecca’s Angel won on good to soft last season.
COTAI GLORY (official rating 112) Failed by a neck to catch Profitable in the Kings Stand Stakes on the soft at Royal Ascot (Goken a length further back, third).
Well behind Limato over 6f but carried wide in the King George Stakes at Goodwood and better than the bare form, though has scored only three times and seems a nervy sort.
EASTON ANGEL (110) Three-year-olds won this back to back (2010-11) and a reproduction of his King George Stakes form has the grey filly a short-head off Goldream (fifth in this last year) and a head behind Washington DC, fifth to Limato in the July Cup. All senior success only on firm ground.
LIMATO (121) Second last year in the Commonwealth Cup (6f) to the flying Muhaarar and in the Prix de la Foret (7f), captured the headlines this season when he ran away with the July Cup (6f).
Will clearly need a strong pace, back to 5f. He’s never raced over the minimum and never with ‘soft’ in the going return
MECCA’S ANGEL (120) This race was the mare’s Group-1 breakthrough a year ago (4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 11th Sole Power, Goldream, Muthmir, Pearl Secret and Cotai Glory). Seven of nine successes all with ‘soft’ in the going return.
PROFITABLE (117) The handicapper says he’s impoved 9lb since being behind Mecca’s Angel in this last year. Has to give her 3lb today but did so by a neck in the Temple Stakes at Haydock in May (good to soft).
However, sequence ended after the hat-trick when encountering firm ground and an extra furlong in the July Cup, Limato scooted clear (Washington DC 5th).
Verdict: Today and tomorrow are the last two days of my Fortune Cookies experiment. The result of this Nunthorpe very much depends on the ground but it could be rich harvest if one of the three cookies oblige
Cotai Glory would win 860 points at this morning’s 44.0, Easton Angel is worth 270 at 14.5 offers and Profitable 132 at 7.6, all three with 20 points win level stakes
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless stated; banker at SP)
1.55 York
BET 5.3pts win BARSANTI
BET 4pts win SHAKOPEE
2.30 York
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) TRIP TO PARIS
3.05 York
BET 8pts win (to win 20) NEMORALIA
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 4pts win and place BIRCHWOOD
3.40 York (Fortune Cookies)
BET 20pts win on each COTAI GLORY, EASTON ANGEL and PROFITABLE
4.20 York
BET (to win 20) 1.5pts win and place MAX ZORIN
4.55 York
BET (to win 20) 2.5pts win and place BANKSEA
£25 IN FREE BETS
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