WHAT A PALAVER! 20-1 PLACE UP: Daqman was right up with the pace, with two thirds, including Little Palaver (3rd 20-1), before Lord George (WON 1-1) got him off the mark at Yarmouth yesterday:
WON 1-1 Lord George
3rd 20-1 Little Palaver
SURPRISE, SURPRISE! ONE IS 14.5: Daqman thinks there’s a standout bet at 3.1 at York, and that out-of-form trainers Luca Cumani and Marcus Tregoning could spring surprises at York and Sandown, one of them at 14.5 offers on BETDAQ.
IN THE DARK? BETDAQ ALLOWS TWO BETS
2.20 Sandown With the BETDAQ orange overround at 106% on this race and the next, I took early positions on the second favourites, saving on the favourites.
You have time to play the field but I have to state my case by 10 a.m. and, with those punter-friendly overrounds, my stakes savers shave off less than I’d lose if I tried to bet that way in a fixed-odds book with a big takeout.
Three horses behind Out Of The Dark for Richard Hannon at Goodwood and two behind Desert Haze for Ralph Beckett at Carlisle have won since.
Beckett is on fire right now and the market says Desert Haze, but Hannon is very selective as to his runners in this and has scored 2-2. I could get 5.7 Out Of The Dark on BETDAQ as a first position.
2.55 Sandown Layers this morning then discard the much-touted and well bred, Celestial Spheres, trained by Charlie Appleby, in favour of the Hannon horse, Wefait, even though Appleby is 33% with his two-year-olds at Sandown, won this last year, and has just had 11 out of 13 in the frame with his runners overall, six of them winners. I took 4.0 Celestial Spheres.
3.30 Sandown With the Beckett yard in such form, Master Of Irony should go on for his Windsor win, and could account for Croquembouche again, despite the worse terms.
However, Croquembouche has never been able to hack it above class 4, suggesting that Master Of Irony still has something to prove, raised 6lb.
At the offers, I fancy Marcus Tregoning’s River Dart at an enormous 14.5 for the form of the race, though not so ginormous as the 33-1 when he won first time last season.
Tregoning has a poor record at Sandown but so he has, too, at Goodwood, where he sprang one fresh at the end of May (won 14-1). He’s the type of trainer who could have one up his sleeve, wherever he plays and, when you have a horse that wins fresh, you try not to waste it.
ATZENI GOES PEARL FISHING AT YORK..
2.35 York Luca Cumani is another trainer who’s made a bad start (1-33) but it’s not unusual to see him come good after the Derby and prove how well handicapped are his horses, once they have had a run or two.
York is his favourite track for a strike (21% with a huge level-stakes profit of 40 points).
If that’s not intended with Laurence, why drop him in class and expose his potential, and book Andrea Atzeni. I could see only 5.5 but the market was still reforming after two withdrawals.
4.20 York Atzeni has an excellent success rate when teaming up with Roger Varian and Queen’s Pearl (8.0 offers) could bounce back in a very open contest, in which the easy-to-back favourite, Alqubbah is the one that beat her first run back.
4.50 York Sign of A Victory appears to be a sailboard among donkeys beached on the Knavesmire. Favourite, yes; but 3.1 is surely value.
7.20 Goodwood Of course Paling and Sam Missile will be hard to beat, but Celebration Day has probably been licensed to thrill here.
He’s run up against quality in his class like Red Verdon and Stargazer up to 1m 4f, occasionally front-running; now Simon Crisford has set him up in a visor to try to poach the firm ground up that final hill: 8.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.25pts win OUT OF THE DARK and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) DESERT HAZE (2.20 Sandown)
BET 4.5pts win LAURENCE (2.35 York)
BET 6.5pts win CELESTIAL SPHERE and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) WEFAIT (2.55 Sandown)
BET 1.5pts win and place RIVER DART (3.30 Sandown)
BET 3pts win and place QUEEN’S PEARL (4.20 York)
BET 6pts win (nap) SIGN OF A VICTORY (4.50 York)
BET 3pts win CELEBRATION DAY (7.20 Goodwood)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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