BACK-TO-BACK YORK NAPS FOR DAQMAN: After his maximum-stakes (20-point) banker on the opening day – Liber Nauticus (WON 4-6) – Daqman yesterday went 11.5 points win on his Day-2 nap at York, Dalkala (WON 2-1).
9-2 WINNING DOUBLE IS THE REAL McCOY: He doubled Dalkala with Tony McCoy’s first ride back after injury, Church Field (WON 1-2) at Ludlow last night, in a Daq Multiple worth 9-2, contributing to a profit on the day of 33.60.
1.30 and 3.05 Newbury Newbury could steal a march on the headlines at York with Championship’s appearance in this opener.
Reportedly on a par with Strong Suit and Canford Cliffs, two of several winners of this for Richard Hannon.
Hannon has his Queen Mary hope, Oriel, a short price for the 3.05 conditions race, with two stablemates to keep her company.
1.45 York You would expect Tom Dascombe (Quatuor) and Richard Fahey (Heskin) to box this one in, both having demonstrated a depth of two-year-olds.
But there are other possibilities, such as Champagne Babe, who looked pretty useful on the debut, albeit getting all her own way at Thirsk.
Beldale Memory also did well in a Bath maiden but you worry about Clive Cox’s abysmal 1-19 strike-rate. She’s on her own here.
David Evans’ 3-35 is not much better and Majestic Alexander (isn’t that calling a filly by a male name?) was easy to back this morning, though not as easy as Heskin, who was drifting like a dog on a raft before my very eyes, as I logged her at 12.0 but had no sooner moved my cursor than she was 13.5.
Quatuor may have difficulty holding off Hoku, if that one gets away on terms: Hoku got quite close to the winner despite being a slow starter when they were first and third at Windsor.
Quatuor, subsequently a fast-ground scorer at Chester, was stopping at the end of that Windsor race and Hoku is by a soft-surface stallion and should appreciate today’s cut in the ground. She was 8.4 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
2.00 Newbury (Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial): The first three home in last year’s so-called trial were a ‘trial’, indeed, for punters! They have appeared in 17 races since, without success.
But the winner the year before, Izzi Top, then ran third in the Oaks and won four in a row, culminating in the Group-1 Pretty Polly Stakes.
That poor 2012 winner was from the stables of Michael Bell, who now saddles The Lark, and Izzi Top was with John Gosden, today responsible for Winsili.
With one or two exceptions – Fencing, for example – this year’s Gosden camp has not been lighting any bonfires. And reaching for the hood to help today suggests renaming Winsili to read ‘Lose, silly’!
Officially, The Lark is 19lb behind Winsili, with the exposed Cruck Realta as top-rated, another pound higher.
But the one I like is Valtina, who overcame a bad draw at Haydock, is well related and is said to have come on a lot in the interim three weeks.
2.15 York Five-year-olds are six in a row and older horses rarely win though Crackentorp is now down to within a pound of the mark for his last victory on the Knavesmire and was beaten in a three-way photo for this race last year.
The winner that day, Easy Terms, is also back for more, though the one they want in the BETDAQ market this morning is soft-ground winner Sir John Hawkwood, despite his top weight.
But Sir John, along with King’s Warrior, Duke Of Clarence, Spanish Duke, Martin Chuzzlewhit and Pulpitarian have never won as far as today’s trip, which will take some getting in the ground.
King’s Warrior, Martin Chuzzlewhit and Spanish Duke have all tried this 12f before and failed.
Ryan Moore thinks Sir John will get the trip – he was positive on him at Chester – but is doubtful that he’s the type to put back-to-back wins together.
At the offers (total 106% as I write), I’m taking last year’s form at 8.4 Easy Terms and 20.0 Crackentorp.
2.45 York (Yorkshire Cup) Outsiders rarely, if ever, win Cup races. Only one horse has scored bigger than 13-2 in this in the last decade, none in double figures going way back.
Four-year-olds (2-10), such as Sir Graham Wade and CD-winner Guarantee, struggle to beat experienced older horses. Like Quiz Mistress, that pair are Listed level. And five times out of six you need a Group winner or Group-1 placed.
The defection of Cavalryman leaves it to penalised Canadian International winner Joshua Tree, who has Top T rip and Royal Diamond to beat.
Top Trip hasn’t won beyond 11f – most Dubai Destinations are milers – and, though Francois Doumen thinks he will, the soft ground is against him.
Royal Diamond is a specialist at the trip but I question his Irish St Leger success. Horses that should have run better were out of form and those in the places were Listed or Group 3 at best.
The 103% ‘book’ of offers in the BETDAQ orange adds appeal to the 5.2 Joshua Tree.
3.15 York (Michael Seely Memorial) You would expect the winner to come from the unexposed trio, How’s Life, Orpha and Pavlosk.
The one with the entries is Orpha and, like Dawn Approach and yesterday’s Dante winner, Libertarian, she is by New Approach.
With punters going for the obvious and making Pavlosk favourite, there is gold value in Orpha at 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning. If Pavlosk, who is stepping up in grade, is that good, she wouldn’t be 3.85.
5.20 Aintree (Betdaq 1st UK Commission Free Conditional Jockeys’ Mares’ Handicap Hurdle) The absolute bottomweight has won both runnings of this race and, with Alan King’s yard in hot form, Shady Lane appeals at 6.8.
5.55 Aintree (No Premium Charge At Betdaq Novices’ Hurdle) Punters have got this race right every year in the last decade: seven winning favourites and no winner above 7-2.
Rebecca Curtis has won it twice in three seasons and Don McCain with Thumbs Up just before that.
They are head to head here but also face cool-cat Nicky Henderson’s ‘Macavity’. Despite a punter-friendly 105% list of offers on BETDAQ, I was dithering, since there was only 0.95 points separating three runners.
6.30 Aintree (Betdaq New Customers Commission Free 1st Month Handicap Chase) Not a winning clear favourite in sight for nine years now: Bradley has been an unlucky horse and Night In Milan too often the bridesmaid.
I shall have a win and place on Triggerman, the Welsh National third, who was a nice 15.0 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
7.05 Aintree (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap Hurdle) Native Gallery races off a mark 7lb higher than when he won this last year but has only 4lb more on his back. And ran an excellent race at Punchestown last month. But can he stop Party Rock’s four-timer?
7.40 Aintree (£200 Free Bets At Betdaq Open Hunters’ Chase) The BETDAQ market says that I should out Rumbury Grey in my Daq Multiples with the Hannon hot-pots..
8.15 Aintree (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Handicap Hurdle) No horse carrying more than 11st 5lb has ever won this and I like the look of Tony McCoy riding a young improver, Scoter Fontaine, at 13.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.7pts win HOKU (1.45 York)
GOLD VALUE: BET 8.3pts win VALTINA (2.00 Newbury)
GOLD VALUE: 4pts win EASY TERMS and 1.5pts win CRACKENTORP (2.15 York)
GOLD VALUE: 7pts win (nap) JOSHUA TREE (2.45 York)
VALUE BET: 6pts win ORPHA and 2pts win (stakes saver) PAVLOSK (3.15 York)
VALUE BET: 5pts win SHADY LANE (5.20 Aintree)
BET 1.4pts win and place TRIGGERMAN (6.30 Aintree)
BET 3.5pts win PARTY ROCK and 2.4pts win NATIVE GALLERY (7.05 Aintree)
BET 1.6pts win SCOTER FONTAINE (8.15 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x1pt win trebles Championship (1.30 Newbury) and Oriel (3.05 Newbury) with Joshua Tree (2.45 York) and Rumbury Grey (7.40 Aintree)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: An above-average day, with all value bets staked to win 30 points (20 points otherwise). Value is when a bet is in a race with a sub-110% total probability in the orange offers. Gold Value is when, in opposing the favourite in a value race, his price as a percentage is theoretically removed from the total probability (see Daqman Library). To check out what offers Daqman took on BETDAQ, divide the target outcome (20 or 30) by the stake.
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