BLOW FOR FAVOURITE BACKERS: It’s been a pinstickers’ week. Just four outright favourites all told scored at Doncaster, Newbury, Worcester and Yarmouth yesterday. It was a different story at Sandown but Daqman tells you why the meeting there tonight looks weak.
BUT ASCOT HITS THE BULL’S EYE: The Ascot King George meeting starts with a strong claim on the Brown Jack Stakes and tasty BETDAQ bull’s-eye bets in another handicap two races later on the card.
VARIAN’S DOUBLE INDEMNITY
WHO goes where? With jockeys now confined to one meeting, where the top players go on a day like today is more than ever relevant to punters.
My ranking of leading riders obviously includes the winningmost on percentages (Oisin Murphy and William Buick 23% each), on returns to punters (Silvestre De Sousa +27 to a level-stake) and on those surging this season: Rossa Ryan, Billy Loughnane and Tom Marquand.
Today they are all at Ascot barring Rossa Ryan at York (he’s between Sandown Thursday and Ascot Saturday) and Billy Loughnane at Thirsk (between Yarmouth Thursday and Ascot Saturday).
When it comes to Sandown, not one jockey is on my ‘follow’ list. That tells me that it’s a meeting to ignore unless I can find a ‘signpost’ in a handicap.
In fact, only two riders in the top 20 for winners have rides there tonight: Callum Shepherd (6.30 The Feminine Urge, 7.35 Galactic Charm, 8.10 War Chant,) and Jack Mitchell (6.30 Kokabah, 7.05 Jaramillo, 7.35 Lone Piper, 8.10 Indemnity).
⭕ 8.10 Sandown Roger Varian has won this handicap three times in the last nine seasons, and was recommended by James Doyle to find a fast track for Indemnity.
⭕ 7.50 York Cheekpieces will help Jack Mitchell on Indemnity tonight (Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.0 taken), while Doyle combines with Varian’s Frankel filly Ejaabiyah up at York, a three-year–old in a race second-season animals have won seven times in nine seasons.
MURPHY MASTER TACTICIAN
⭕ 2.25 Ascot (Brown Jack Stakes, 2m) STATS: Young horses (3yo and 4yo are 8-10) are dominant in this and have cornered the market with a strong trio today.
All three of their yards have won it in the decade with the right age group, making their runners look even stronger here: Andrew Balding (Tactician), Sir Mark Prescott (True Legend) and Charlie Johnston (Attila The Honey).
A slow learner all about stamina, Tactician has won (Goodwood) and been second (here at Ascot) over 1m 6f this summer. Oisin Murphy can take him further forward
True Legend’s Spring form was in preparation for the Northumberland Plate, in which he finished a very unlucky fifth, ‘not clear run repeatedly’ from two out.
It’s a worry that he might be making his own trouble. Newcastle was certainly deja vu, after a similar saga at Glorious Goodwood last year: second ‘denied a clear run repeatedly from 2f marker.’
Attila The Honey has climbed 20lb this year, with three wins from five races since March, making all at Newbury the last day (1m 5.5f). Will this grey filly get a soft lead again here, carrying a 6lb penalty?
DERBY RUNNER TALKS AT 10.0
⭕ 3.35 Ascot (1m 4f handicap) Three-year-olds have failed to play any part in this whatsoever in the last four seasons but suddenly are mob-handed with more than half the field.
All are getting more than a stone from the top weight, Burdett Road, a course winner here over two furlongs shorter on firm but a dual hurdles scorer last backend, including at Grade-2 level, after switching from Michael Bell to James Owen.
Owen’s last three Flat runners have all won handicaps, two of them ridden by Silvestre de Sousa, who partners Burdett Road in this, an 8.0 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
Of the three-year-olds, Mutaawid was impressive when going clear at Kempton the last day, with Mount Atlas third, giving 6lb.
The handicapper thinks it necessary to create such a turnaround that Mount Atlas now receives 7lb! I don’t want to stand between them while they punch it out.
Wonder Kid runs off the same mark as Mount Atlas but surely the ‘hidden’ three-year-old must be Tabletalk, a cool 10.0-plus on BETDAQ.
It’s the last word on jockeys today that Tom Clover has called on Oisin Murphy for the eased-down AW winner at Chelmsford whose next stop was the Derby.
Slightly outclassed he was (!), 10th at 100-1, but he certainly provides something to talk about in this, the most interesting, field on the Ascot card.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Ascot (win 12)
BET 12pts win TACTICIAN
3.35 Ascot (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7pts win BURDETT ROAD
BET 5pts win TABLETALK
7.50 York (supernap)
BET 20pts win EJAABIYAH
8.10 Sandown (win 20)
BET 4pts win INDEMNITY
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