DAQMAN LUCKY SEVEN CLASSICS? Look out for some Classic tipping from Daqman, with the Guineas season starting at Newmarket on Saturday before Chester and York May trials for the Epsom Derby in the following two weeks. Here are Daqman’s six Classic successes last season. You missed the English 1,000, Daqman; try harder!
WON 4-1 Gleneagles (English 2,000)
WON 2-5 Gleneagles (Irish 2,000)
WON 11-2 Pleascach (Irish 1,000)
WON 3-1 New Bay (French Derby)
WON 13-8 Golden Horn (Epsom Derby)
WON 10-11 Jack Hobbs (Irish Derby
2,000 GUINEAS ABC GUIDE: Start the Classic season right with Daqman’s 2,000 Guineas ABC today, in which he analyses stats and facts for all those currently left in.
CHAMPION BETDAQ-SPONSORED HURDLE: After his 8-1 Sandown Gold Cup scorer on Saturday, Daqman will be looking for more big-race success at Punchestown (Tuesday-Saturday) featuring the BETDAQ Punchestown Champion Hurdle on Friday. Everyone’s a winner that day!
2,000 ABC GUIDE: 15.0 MARCEL A FALSE PRICE
Marcel is the ‘wrong’ price in the Guineas. Equine collateral form is unreliable between their two-year-old season and their second term but form is the only way to bet and, strictly, Marcel is well in front of Stormy Antarctic on a line through Johannes Vermeer.
Yet Stormy is 9.4 in a magnificent Betdaq orange totalling only 110%, and Marcel is 15.0.
They say ‘don’t be afraid of one horse’ but, if Air Force Blue continues at the level of his Phoenix, National and Dewhurst Stakes hat-trick, then he is a giant, and has to be your saver on the day.
Herald The Dawn ticks all the boxes but his stable is in dire form, with 4-64 (that’s 6%) this season and is, currently, on 23 consecutive losers.
A Won a Group race (10 out of 10)
B Rated 112 plus (8 out of 10)
C Won over 7f or a 1m (8 out of 10)
D Sire’s stamina index 9.1 plus (10 out of 10)
E Won two or more races (9 out of 10)
F Winner trained Aidan O’Brien (5 out of 11)
X Stable in form
ABCDE Herald The Dawn
Son of Epsom Derby winner New Approach whose brother, Dawn Approach, won the Guineas. The second and third in his Curragh Futurity (Group 2) have since been well behind Minding and Stormy Antarctic.
Herald The Dawn was beaten three lengths by Air Force Blue in the National Stakes and a similar distance by Ultra in the Grand Criterium (Prix Lagardere). But he has a stamina edge in his breeding over the other market leaders (84.0 Betdaq; 20-1 to 33-1 bookmakers).
ABCEFX Air Force Blue
Winner of the Dewhurst, Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes, in which he beat Herald The Dawn three lengths and, though beaten by Buratino in the Coventry, he turned the tables on that one in the Phoenix Stakes and was given a ‘my best ever two-year-old’ accolade by Aidan O’Brien (1.67 Betdaq; 4-7 bookmakers).
ABCE Marcel
By French Derby winner Lawman, he beat Johannes Vermeer and Foundation in the Racing Post Trophy. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Epsom Derby winner, Authorized, won the same two-year-old trophy (15.0 Betdaq; 14-1 to 16-1 bookmakers).
ABCE Stormy Antarctic
Runner-up to Johannes Vermeer in the Saint-cloud Criterium after winning the Haynes, Hanson and Clark. Impressive in the Craven Stakes, beating Racing Post Trophy third, Foundation three and a half lengths. May need some cut in the ground (10.0 Betdaq; 8-1 bookmakers)
ABEX Buratino
Beat Air Force Blue in the Coventry but left the same horse behind in third in the Phoenix Stakes nine weeks later. Buratino’s sire has a sprinter’s stamina index (13.0 Betdaq; 12-1 bookmakers)
ABX Ribchester
Mill Reef winner (6f) but stayed the Maisons 7f well on heavy when swerving away his chance at the finish in the Prix Djebel (74.0 Betdaq; 33-1 bookmakers).
ACE Blue De Vega
Back-to-back wins in the autumn, including a Group 3 at Leopardstown. By French Guineas and Derby winner (196.0 Betdaq; 12-1 to 16-1 bookmakers)
ACEX Galileo Gold
Group-2 winner at Goodwood as a two-year-old, before Lagardere third to Ultra (36.0 Betdaq; 33-1 bookmakers)
ACE First Selection
Solario Stakes success in August was his fourth win but his front-running in the Lagardere at Longchamp failed to last out behind Ultra (Galileo Gold, third, Johannes Vermeer fourth, Shogun sixth, Herald The Dawn seventh).
BCD Massaat
His quality is merely a reflection of Air Force Blue’s supremacy at this stage. They were first and second in the Dewhurst (10.5 Betdaq; 10-1 bookmakers)
BCEFX Washington DC
Runner-up to Round Two, with Buratino third (Marble Hill Stakes), and to Air Force Blue (Phoenix Stakes). ‘Oozed class’ when strolled home on reappearance on Polytrack. Not to be underestimated but perhaps too much speed for a mile at the highest level.
CDE Seven Left
Front-running two-year-old with back-to-back wins at Limerick and Naas but failed to step up to Listed class.
CDFX Bravery
Galileo colt but has won only a Polytrack maiden and relatives not cap Group-3 level.
CDFX Shogun
Has finished behind Herald The Dawn (Futurity), Ultra (Lagardere) and Stormy Antarctic (Craven Stakes). A nearly horse who carries his head awkwardly.
CD Kentucky Connection
Won first time out but has struggled since, always a bad sign. Some 12 lengths behind Emotionless (doubtful runner) in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
CD Prize Money
This son of Authorized (so may need some cut in the ground) is a dark horse after one run, one easy win at Newmarket in the autumn (74.0 Betdaq; 33-1 to 40-1 bookmakers)
CFX Air Vice Marshal
Not seen since runner-up in a Group 2 in July last year. Same sire as Air Force Blue.
CX Taqdeer
The potential is there (‘has a cracking attitude’, says jockey Paul Hanagan) but not much else has been seen to date. Could be anything (56.0 Betdaq and 33-1 to 50-1 bookmakers)
C Zonderland
Better than the bare form, having run only on slow ground as a youngster, and had a minor injury before failing to land a gamble at Newbury at the backend.
DE Round Two
Son of Jim Bolger’s luckless Teofilio, won the Marble Hill Stakes but was ill at ease on the firm ground in the Coventry won by Buratino from Air Force Blue (74.0 Betdaq; 33-1 bookmakers)
E Log Out Island
Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy winner (6f), seemingly well exposed after 10 juvenile starts.
E Zhui Feng
Half-brother to Group-1 winner, scored twice over 6f as a juvenile, and should improve on smart seasonal debut.
X Adventurous
Seems exposed with 10 runs as a juvenile, including seven lengths off Air Force Blue.
– Lustrous Light
Galileo colt, half brother to Group-1 sprinter, Alfred Nobel.
SIR MICHAEL AT HIS ARISTOCRATIC BEST
AYR: Linda Perratt’s last winner came before Jinky (2.50) packed up for the 2015 season 195 days ago, but he won this race off a similar mark after a 200-day absence last year when firm ground like today’s was in his favour.
In fact, Jinky led home a 1-2-3 for Linda that day, and her other runner here, Amber Crystal, also likes the going on top. I could get 10.5 and 16.0 respectively in a 107% total orange.
CHELMSFORD: A new trip and grade and a 7lb hike in the weights might just stop Giovanni Di Bicci (2.00), despite Jim Boyle’s calling in Frankie Dettori to help.
Frankie’s had only one winner on this track. Oisin Murphy’s had 17 and it’s interesting that Hit List returns to the scene of his first time in the frame last September before he won at Salisbury.
Ryan Moore is 3-4 for the in-form Sir Michael Stoute and has a 50% record at Chelmsford. Coronation Stakes entry, Aristocractic (3.00), looks good for him at 2.62 on BETDAQ this morning.
Particularly so, when the second favourite War Story runs for a stable having its first starters of 2016 at the meeting here today, and has a very modest record on the course.
A saver is required just in case it’s Kokoni (4.00 Chelmsford) who keeps Ryan’s 50% record. And a small-stakes double in case both win!
SOUTHWELL I’ve tried to stop one sequence winner, Giovanni Di Bicci at Chelmsford; now I’m after Moonshine Ridge (4.40), facing a drop in trip and a rise of 17lb inside a month.
Favourite Girl might take advantage for leading Southwell trainer, Michael Appleby, and the incredible claimer George Buckell, who is 67% (6-9) at Southwell) and 2-2 for Appleby.
One race earlier, Peter Chapple-Hyam may have found a lower-class slot for Pericles (I took 6.0 on BETDAQ in the 4.10). Peter had his first 2016 winner at the weekend and is 25% on this course, a man quite capable of training a Classic winner. Which is where I came in!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9, except ante-post bet)
BET 5pts win HIT LIST (2.00 Chelmsford)
BET 1pt win and place on each JINKY and AMBER CRYSTAL (2.50 Ayr)
BET 9pts win (nap) ARISTOCRATIC (3.00 Chelmsford), with 3.7pts win (stakes saver) KOKONI (4.00 Chelmsford) and 1pt win double the two.
BET 4pts win PERICLES (4.10 Southwell)
BET 4pts win FAVOURITE GIRL (4.40 Southwell)
ANTE-POST (BULL’S-EYE BET): 3.5pts to win 50 MARCEL (3.45 Newmarket, Saturday, 2,000 Guineas)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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