TODAY: HUNT FOR THE DERBY HERO: Trials at Chester this week and York next week with the big one, the Dante Stakes, could provide the Derby winner. Today Daqman looks at the reputation of the top trials.
TOMORROW: GREAT GROUP GRAB: Tomorrow Daqman starts a horses-to-follow list intent on landing as many Group races as possible, starting with the Derbys of Epsom, Chantilly and The Curragh, through Royal Ascot to the Arc De Triomphe.
START WITH THE WINNING TEAM: It’s sure to be another week of top tipping from the BETDAQ team, with Daqman starting off like this (since Flat turf began):
Ton-Up and Bull’s-Eye Bets: +52.00
Challenge: Daqman 22, Pricewise 8
Lays: 16 out of 18 (88%)
MIDTERM’S LAZY PATH TO THE DERBY
See how they won. Where do the Epsom winners come from? Here’s how the major trials of the next two weeks at York and Chester line up as guides to the top colts.
The two we are waiting for are Midterm and US Army Ranger (Aidan O’Brien). By Galileo (dam won the Irish Oaks), Ranger has won only his maiden on heavy ground.
Midterm is another Galileo, out of the magnificent mare, Midday. Whereas a laid-back horse usually scores 10 out of 10 for temperament, Midterm’s attitude has been a worry.
He does nothing at home. Impossible to get a decent gallop out of him. So nerves are on the edge when he goes to the track. Two wins out of two suggest that he innately conserves his energy.
Or, as trainer Sir Michael Stoute puts it: ‘He suddenly comes alive when you put a saddle on him. We still don’t know how much talent is under the saddle; only time will tell.’ Maybe that’s 11 out of 10.
CHESTER VASE (Thursday): This trial is much loved by Aidan O’Brien. He’s won it six times, among them:
Soldier Of Fortune Only fifth at Epsom but then won the Irish Derby, returning to Epsom first run back the following year to take the Coronation Cup.
Treasure Beach Beaten a head at Epsom after winning the Vase but made up for it in the Irish Derby.
Ruler Of The World Finally the double comes up. He was ruler of the Chester trial and he was ruler at Epsom. But he blew out in the Curragh version and never regained his status.
LINGFIELD DERBY TRIAL (Saturday): Has not produced the winner since High-Rise for Luca Cumani in 1998.
Its greatest winner in the second half of the last century was Slip Anchor who won by seven lengths in 1985. Slip Anchor was the only winner since Coronach (1926) to make all the running.
DANTE STAKES (York next week) Four more O’Brien winners but, strangely, only one of them won a Derby, but there would be Derby glory for four Dante-winning colts altogether this century:
Authorized Won the Epsom Derby and the International for Peter Chapple-Hyam after winning the Dante four lengths.
Cape Blanco The O’Brien Dante winner who won a Derby, but it was The Curragh Derby. He’d beaten Workforce at York but Workforce got his revenge at Epsom.
Motivator Unbeaten before the Epsom Derby, including the Dante Stakes, but never won again after Epsom.
North Light Perhaps the weakest colt to do the Dante and Epsom Derby double, beaten afterwards in the Irish Derby and achieving a rating of only 122.
AINIPPE THE NAP OF TWO BANKERS
3.00 The Curragh (Tetrarch Stakes) An old-fashioned Derby trial, down to Listed level, and last produced the Epsom Derby winner in 1984 (Secreto).
This is usually settled between Dermot Weld (seven winners) and Jim Bolger (six), but Bolger has been badly out of form, and it’s showing in the market. His last four runners have started 20-1 (three times) and 25-1, as if there’s no imminent hope of a recovery.
Round Two, seventh in the Coventry, is a ‘straightforward horse who won first time as a juvenile.’ So, in the normal course of events, he ought to be on the front line.
Blue De Vega swerved the Newmarket Guineas for the Irish version. He is by Lope De Vega, a son of Shamardal, who is the sire of Embiran.
Embiran was confidently ridden to victory at the Curragh over a mile and Weld immediately named today’s race for the Aga Khan’s colt.
Blue De Vega really sauntered through a Group 3 (hence the penalty), the Kilavullan at Leopardstown last season, beating two previous winners into the places, one of whom has won again since.
But that was in his first season and we’ve already relearned the old lesson with second season animals – this year is this year and last year was last – after the demise of Air Force Blue and the magnificence of Minding, one day apart.
Blue De Vega’s family needed much further than this, so I shall give my vote to Embiran, who has raced this season, an obvious win and place bet at 6.2 in an eight-horse race.
3.35 The Curragh (Athasi Stakes) Three-year-olds are 5-4 up in the decade over four-year-olds in this fillies and mares Group 3. I remember one of them, Tommy Stack’s Lolly For Dolly, winning three more Group races after this one.
Willie McCreery, who trained that super-progressive mare, Fiesolana, a couple of years back, gave Dolce Strega, a Listed-placed daughter of Zoffany, a confidence booster on the Polytrack at Dundalk recently.
But Ainippe has already won the races that Fiesolana did, the Ballyogan and the Brownstown, and looks different class. Her trainer, Ger Lyons, is saddling winners.
FOUND! ANOTHER MAXIMUM STAKES BET
4.10 The Curragh (Mooresbridge Stakes) It seems that Aidan O’Brien can train Classic winners after all, even when they’re fillies. Minding’s success was his 250th Group 1.
Found is one of his favourite fillies, after beating Golden Horn in the Breeders Cup Turf. To think I’d boasted of beating her with my Irish 1,000 Guineas selection, Pleascach, subsequent winner of the Yorkshire Oaks.
The Pleascach yard runs Altesse here but she’s hard to win with, a bridesmaid stuck somewhere between Listed and Group 3.
Success Days’ bubble was burst by Golden Horn in the Epsom Derby after a hat-trick which included the Leopardstown Derby Trial. She finished in front of Found on heavy ground recently.
But Found will have come on the proverbial ton for that, and should progress over a five-year-old, Fascinating Rock, who landed his first Group 1 when beating her in the Champion Stakes at Ascot.
Fascinating Rock has won first time out for the last two seasons – including this one last year – but it’s still a big advantage for Found to have raced, and Im looking for maximum-stakes double today after Ainippe.
BEVERLEY: Dawn Mirage (4.05) is a hidden horse, tasty at 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning. Ignore his first run in the mud for Richard Fahey, and note the return of cheekpieces.
KEMPTON: The 5.0 chance Dunraven Storm (5.35) has finally got his ground and can defy top weight. But spare a pound for Parsnip Pete (6.0), with Tom George currently on 11131.
WINDSOR Roger Varian and Andrea Atzeni, who are 42% when teaming up at Windsor, have three chances today.
Atzeni is on the outsider of Varian’s pair (3.95 Morando and 12.0 Catskill Mountains) in the 2.50 maiden.
And all the rage is the John Gosden runner out of the Wood Ditton Stakes, Western Prince. I always give the Wood Ditton a couple of chances to produce the winners.
But I’m also tempted to take a position on Catskill Mountains. Will surely shrink from 12.0 by ‘off’ time.
Varian-Atzeni with Meditation (4.35) face another eye-catcher, Harold Lloyd, with trainer Heny Candy’s current form 131. This one will be seen in a big handicap at the Derby meeting if he can improve his handicap mark in this.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win WESTERN PRINCE, and 2pts win and place CATSKILL MOUNTAINS (2.50 Windsor)
BET 4pts win (to win 20) and 4pts place EMBIRAN (3.00 the Curragh)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) AINIPPE (3.35 The Curragh)
BET 1.75pts win and place DAWN MIRAGE (4.05 Beverley)
BANKER: BET 20pts win FOUND (4.10 The Curragh)
BET 10pts win HAROLD LLOYD (4.35 Windsor)
BET 5pts win DUNRAVEN STORM and 4pts win PARSNIP PETE (5.35 Kempton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
