ELEMENTARY, MY DEAR DAQMAN: Time to take stock: today and tomorrow, Daqman checks out his elementary betting methods, looking again at his Fortune Cookies, Betdaq Ratings and Whispers. But his primary aim is value.
SEARCH FOR THE POT OF GOLD: So today he spells out the detective work required and the reasons behind his Pot Of Gold bet; and why he identifies with Pricewise races. His tips are all about taking care with stats.
BE AN EAGLE: SWOOP ON BETDAQ VALUE
Winning demands that punters adapt their skills. Change is the only constant: new racetracks, new top jockeys, new trainers, rising-star stallions, international runners, an appalling run of bad ground stretching back to last year. To name but a few, as they say.
If you don’t keep up, you get left behind, and you have to have a method of incorporating fresh facts with traditional stats that help you dine on this moveable feast.
The Daqman method is always to be on the side of the great and the good in racing: the best horses, the best trainers. And, number one, the best prices. That’s where BETDAQ comes in.
POT OF GOLD: Daqman value bets aim at winning 50 points (Bull’s-Eye Bets) or 100 (Ton-Up) to small stakes. We’ve had plenty of winners with those targets.
But we’ve tried only a few with the pot-of-gold formula for enhancing the target profit. On Saturday, we found paydirt, with winner and second in the Northumberland Plate.
WON 16-1 Antiquarium (from 19.0 Betdaq)
2nd 13-2 Seamour (from 10.0 Betdaq)
What difference did the Pot Of Gold bet really make to your wallet? The aim is triple value, with the conclusion a bet at the price you want, keeping the original stake to boost your earnings.
I promise you this is the professional formula used by the successful syndicates of the past, notably the Legal Eagles in Australia, a bunch of lawyers and mathematicians who bankrupt many an unwary bookie. But it has no border or boundary.
The triple-value method applies constantly to BETDAQ; often ONLY to BETDAQ in England and Ireland, because it begins by betting in a marginally overround book of prices.
In the Northumberland Plate, BETDAQ offers added up to 108% during the morning. The Total SP? 131%. It cost you, in effect, 131 to get 100 back at bookmaker SP. That’s plain theft.
Step two: By reassessing the values in a marginal overround – in this case 108% – you can quickly get into a level playing-field (100-100) or even an underround.
You do this by knocking out, or marking down, horses in your personal market that you think can’t win or are overrated.
Remember that, with BETDAQ, the layers are always you and I, offering our view of the real chance, the real odds of each horse; not ‘fixing’ the prices with an inbuilt profit of, say, that 31%.
Step three: Having arrived at our personal market, we compare our best shots with what is on offer.
I rated Antiquarium 10-1. To win 50 points, I would need a 5-point stake. But I can get 19.0 in that punter-friendly BETDAQ orange. What do I do? Do I cut my stake to 2.7 points to win me 50?
No, the Legal Eagles taught that you KEEP your original stake, standing four-square behind your opinion, and bet your 5 points. You get 5 x 18 = 90. That’s 90 points profit instead of 50 for the same stake, simply by backing your own judgment, which is what BETDAQ is all about anyway!
THE PRICEWISE CONNECTION: Some excitable readers with time on their hands bang on about why I match myself with Pricewise of the Racing Post, particularly now that it’s clear I beat him hollow season after season.
But you see, Pricewise tips only in major events and feature races at the top tracks. And it’s among the great and the good horses (see my second paragraph) that you will find consistent form and stats, many of them handicaps which reveal the cunning of certain trainers.
What’s more, you get even lower overrounds from BETDAQ in these races while, conversely, there are even bigger take-outs from bookmakers, as they cash in on the public’s appetite for the better-quality races.
No wonder I psyche myself up, and lay out my wallet, by challenging a rival to find better value. Why Pricewise? Sadly, there is no one else, because of newspaper decline in racing coverage and lack of understanding of betting among their editors.
But that makes your task easier. If you use every tool available to you – all the stats and form you can find and update – you can best guess what has a BETTER CHANCE of winning than the other man’s view.
Again, that is precisely what BETDAQ is all about. So put your money where your mouth is and enjoy the great betting game in the best arena, BETDAQ.
CURRENT SCORES: Daqman 52, Pricewise 23.
ZAINA ZIP CAN SHOW FOR THE DROP IN TRIP
2.00 Pontefract Beware of a surface view of stats! The Racing Post will tell you that low stalls in this opener have one of their highest ratings for draw success: a 70 (whatever that means). And that seems borne out by success for gate 3 in the last two seasons.
However, those two years each had only seven runners. There were 11 starters in three of the four previous years, with the results by stall in those: 6, 11 and 8. Oops!
3.40 Pontefract Beware of a surface view of stats! For instance, now is the time for all good punters to join in the three-year-old party.
The Classic generation – with allowances in both conditions races and handicaps – tend to take over and win the young lion’s share of the pots.
Yes, sniff my critics, who only serve to keep me on my toes, hadn’t I noticed that there has been only one three-year-old winner of this race in the last four years?
Hello guys, say I, good Euro16 run for you, but eyes down there, please: is that because there have been only three three-year-old runners in this race in the four years? Do you think!
Suddenly (which happens when trainers reckon it’s a good year for the Classic generation), the race is inundated with three-year-olds: they make up seven of the 11 runners! No easy stats choice, there then.
With stablemate Early Bird withdrawn, my focus is on Zaina Rizeena (9.4 offers) who has shaped over further as if this drop back in trip will suit.
Gale Song deserves a second look (despite losing three in a row as favourite), with Ed Walker hot at Ponty (43%) but the yard is struggling just now (1-15), which makes 6.6 too shor.t
On the other hand, Robert Cowell (Sabrewing 6.0) is flying, with a 50% win-and-place strike rate from his last 20 starters.
REBEL WITH A CAUSE: TO WIN US MONEY
8.10 Musselbugh On a low-key day, with Honeysuckle Lil and Surewecan best on firm ground, Bajan Rebel is worth the nap as a CD winner on soft.
9.10 Musselburgh Likely to hit the traps running is Causey Arch (4.7 on BETDAQ as I write), who showed improvement in first-time cheekpieces on the last day, and could revive the fortunes of Michael Dods.
Jockey Connor Beasley has a 45% strike rate (5-11) for Dods. It would be 5-7 (better than 70%) had the stable not been out of form recently, putting him up on four straight losers.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4pts win SABREWING, and 2.3pts win and place ZAINA RIZEENA (3.40 Pontefract)
BET 5pts win (nap) BAJAN REBEL (8.10 Musselburgh)
BET 5.4pts win CAUSEY ARCH (9.10 Musselburgh)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
