IT’S THREE MORE WINNING BETS: Daqman landed three winning bets in a row yesterday, including a bold lay on a hot Ballydoyle favourite, Alice Springs, but his triple-whammy attempt was blown when his win bet didn’t run and his place wasn’t! His winning bets were:
WON 7-4 Dream Berry (3.50 on Betdaq)
WON (lay) Alice Springs (3rd 5-4 favourite)
WON 2-1 (saver) Harzand (4.1 on Betdaq)
HE MAKES HIS OWN HEADLINES: Daqman looks at his lays record and checks out the week ahead, with an eye-opener in the Willie Mullins v Paul Nicholls contest for the jumps title. His headlines today are a revealing heads-up as ever:
NOW IT’S NINE WINNING LAYS OUT OF 10
MULLINS v NICHOLLS: 28 STILL IN AT AYR
AT ODDS ABOUT THE DODS ODDS AT REDCAR
ANGEL TEAM: ELZIE AND DE SOUSA AT 100%
ONE FOR NICKY IF HE DOESN’T HIT THE DECK
NOW IT’S NINE WINNING LAYS OUT OF 10
I told you so! But I didn’t always follow my own advice to be on the Aidan O’Brien second string yesterday. When I was, it didn’t run!
But a lay on the 5-4 Ballydoyle favourite, Alice Springs, saved the day. After my record 45 out of 50, I want to keep the current lays list on a very high percentage strike-rate, the idea as ever being to pay for the rest of your bets.
I’m on a 90% run right now (my target for my own insurance purposes has always been 72%).
Of course, you can back and lay to your heart’s content, and your wallet’s delight, in all or any of the races each day; particularly as part of a multi-bet assault on a race or insurance for your staking plan.
But from my breakfast table I can’t much see the way the wind is blowing in the market; I can’t duck and dive, tack through the betting waters. I have to look through the wrong end of my telescope, half a day away from the races.
WON (lay) Cold As Ice (unplaced 4-6 favourite)
WON (lay) Lancelot Du Lac (2nd 4-1)
WON (place lay) John Reel (unplaced 12-1)
WON (lay) Mister Universe (unplaced 7-1)
WON (lay) Kayf Moss (2nd 4-1)
WON (lay) Space Oddity (4th 11-4 favourite)
WON (lay) Found (3rd 9-10 favourite)
WON (place lay) Silviniaco Conti (pulled up 12-1)
Lost (place lay) The Last Samuri (2nd 8-1 favourite)
WON (lay) Alice Springs (3rd 5-4 favourite)
I underestimated The Last Samuri in the National; now I hope Kim Bailey will resist the temptation to drop him straight back in the deep end.
Vieux Lion Rouge and The Last Samuri – still only seven and eight, respectively – are the horses to take out of the race, improvers with three or four years of marathon magic ahead of them, if they can be allowed recovery and recuperation from Saturday.
MULLINS v NICHOLLS: 28 STILL IN AT AYR
Now for the Scottish National! There’s a huge Flat session at Newmarket this week, then at Newbury, with the Classics in mind. But I’m greedy for a Grand National treble.
After the Irish and the English, I want the £210,000 Scottish version at Ayr on Saturday, where the odds are stacked in our favour with the markets transformed by the big stable battle between England and Ireland.
The trainers’ title race – Willie Mullins v Paul Nicholls – sees them currently with a total of 28 possibles between the National and in the Scottish Champion Hurdle alone.
Charlie Swan won the hurdle in 2007 but that was in isolation, so it will be interesting to see what Mullins can do. You layers are tight on any Mullins horse but they don’t all win and that leaves you open to a value deal against you.
AT ODDS ABOUT THE DODS ODDS AT REDCAR
Trainers in (or out of) form can be a tricky subject. Take Michael Dods. I’m thinking that it was all down to Doncaster and the mud that he landed a double across two days there at the Lincoln meeting.
He hasn’t won before or since and the trainer trumpeted by Channel-4 at the meeting as ‘clearly the man to follow’ is now 2-26 this year.
Yet Doncaster remains one of his least productive tracks overall, one of his lowest three for returns. He has three runners at around the 3-1 mark at Redcar this afternoon.
And Redcar is one of his three most productive tracks over five seasons (14 wins). So, is he in form or not; should we back him at one of his favourite tracks, Redcar, stop at a winner? Or is he a lay all day?
Check out the Dods-runners’ form, but I am sticking to the best race of the day at Redcar, the class-4 mile.
3.30 Redcar Richard Fahey’s scattergun approach has managed 3-35 in the last fortnight (he’s 15% at Redcar); Mick Easterby and Michael Appleby have similar figures. Tim Easterby none. Ruth Carr none.
Ruth Carr is ominously out of form; all bar one of her 14 losers in the fortnight have been double figure prices up to 100-1. Worse, the one they backed – Ellaal 4-1 joint jolly on Friday – was only 11th of 12. Not so jolly!
Alan Swinbank is doing much better at 4-15 and the horse he saddles here, Genres, is the interesting runner of the race.
When a horse changes stables, which camp are you in: the ‘I don’t back cast-offs’ club; or the ‘could be transformed by new scenery and stable methods?’
Ryan Moore who won on him last year said he was a horse who needed time, and Genre was ignored in the market (at 14.5 as I write) after 297 days off and his departure from John Gosden’s yard. With Swinbank in some kind of form, he might be well fit for this.
ANGEL TEAM: ELZIE AND DE SOUSA AT 100%
2.20 Windsor Worst of all is divining the form of David Elsworth. He runs them for himself not for us.
But he and Silvestre De Sousa are 100% at Windsor with 2-2 seemingly cherry-picked mounts over four seasons.
De Sousa won on the Dark Angel grey, Justice Angel, at Salisbury in September and, perhaps more significantly, attempted a Group 2, the Rockfel, at Newmarket.
Justice Angel is a half-sister to Success Days who was a winner in her prime of yesterday’s Ballysax Classic trial in Ireland and, yet more significantly perhaps, De Sousa said after Salisbury: ‘She may be not Group class this year.’
The inference is that she could be ‘next year’ and next year is now here. Elsworth, who won with his last runner on Saturday, is striking at 33% with his three-year-olds (6-18) and he’s 23% at Windsor.
There was no money for the paper-favourite Furiant at 6.0 on BETDAQ, so I felt justified in a few pounds on the new favourite, Justice Angel, at 4.1.
2.50 Windsor Also on 100% is Sir Michael Stoute, though 1-1 on turf is hardly significant until you look at the overall for the year so far and find that he is also 40% on AW and his current form is 113213.
Sir Michael, who has nine entries at Newmarket and three at Newbury in this Classic-trials week, runs two in the maiden.
Like Aidan O’Brien, he can often turn up his second string as the trump card at a big price. He runs Ballet Concerto at 2.54 as I write and Aristocles at 27.0.
Ballet Concerto is another new favourite, leapfrogging the paper jolly Mountain Bell for Ralph Beckett, who does well at this meeting, is 4-12 in the last fortnight and 19% at Windsor.
Beckett is ace with fillies and Mountain Bell significantly returns to Windsor, where she narrowly missed out on a maiden on her sole start last season.
Tell you what, we’ll have a bitof win and place the outsider Aristocles, and we’ll put Ballet Concerto and Mountain Bell together in our Daq Multiples.
ONE FOR NICKY IF HE DOESN’T HIT THE DECK
4.10 Kelso Nicky Richards’ horses keep their form well. He’s 2-2 in this race, both winners putting back-to-back wins together.
One For Hocky surprised when he won on the soft on the last day. The step up in trip and better ground should suit here.
Imperial Prince has been hit with an 11lb rise and the bridesmaid Bollin Ace is with Tim Easte by who is on a 34-day, 32-runner losing streak. Landecker, three times a Kelso winner, looks a more serious threat.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6.75pts win (nap) JUSTICE ANGEL (2.20 Windsor
BET 0.75pts win ARISTOCLES (2.50 Windsor)
BET 1.5pts win and place GENRES (3.30 Redcar)
BET 3.75pts win on each LANDECKER and ONE FOR HOCKY (4.10 Kelso)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles Justice Angel (2.20 Windsor) with Ballet Concerto and Mountain Bell (2.50 Windsor), and with Landecker and One For Hocky (4.10 Kelso)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
