IT’S HENNESSY GOLD CUP WEEK: Daqman starts Hennessy week with a banker at Kempton today, and finds big value at 9.8 on BETDAQ at Ludlow. His best standings are:
Daqman 8, Pricewise 1
Lays: 11 in a row
TRIPLE WHAMMY AW ATTEMPT: There’s also quality racing on Polytrack at Chelmsford, and Daqman not only keeps his stakes at win-20 level but also attempts a Triple Whammy of win, place and lay in the 3.05 race.
IT’S STILL A WEIGHT-AND-SEE HENNESSY GOLD CUP
He’s the great dictator. If Coneygree runs in the Hennessy Gold Cup – as now seems likely – Saturday’s Newbury race will be so top heavy that last year’s winner off 11st 6lb would have had to carry only 10st 5lb.
In fact, the ‘moral’ in 2014, Houblon des Obeaux, giving 6lb and beaten into second by only a shade more than three lengths, is the one likely to benefit for a stable in form: his 156 rating will set him 10st 10lb to carry, whereas he had 11st 12lb last year off 157.
Fifth-placed Smad Place, from another yard in top gear, who had 11st 10lb last year off a rating of 155, remains on that mark but will have only 10st 9lb in the saddle.
And, though now rated 15lb higher, The Druids Nephew, will carry the ‘exact same’ as last year, 10st 10lb.
A final decision about Coneygree will be taken tomorrow morning after his pre-race gallop with jockey Nico de Boinville under the anxious eyes of trainer Mark Bradstock.
Meanwhile, the biggest gulf this morning between bookmaker and BETDAQ was 30.0 offered about Philip Hobbs’s Sausalito Sunrise, compared with just 14-1 in a place by bookmakers.
I will keep my powder dry and curb my anxious cursor away from the ante-post orange until I can get a fix on the runners, so that I can bring you an ABC Guide to the race on Thursday.
But, if you know better, there are offers on BETDAQ up to 335.0. So don’t let me stop you fishing: it was 30.0 bar eight last time I checked.
NOW IS THE HOUR FOR THE ‘EXCELLENT’ VANITEUX
1.35 Kempton My Christmas-box plan of banker ‘good things’ has come unstuck so far because prices have been cramped. You need three winners out of four at 1-3 to break even, level stakes, and such as 2-9 and 2-11 have been too short even to step up to gold (win 30) and diamond (win 40) levels.
Despite the sub-standard runs by Faugheen and Vautour, they hammered the lid down on Douvan yesterday, opening 1-6 on course.
BETDAQ backers get a better chance, and, in this race at Kempton, Vaniteux was 1.7 in the orange this morning, with wads available at 1.56, as trainer Nicky Henderson declares: ‘This is what we’ve been waiting for.’
Vaniteux was just short of top class over hurdles but a career over fences has always been the target and he ‘jumps excellent,’ and 1.7 looks tempting, even in a novice chase.
2.10 Kempton Polly Peachum won first time out last year but was pulled up in this race in very soft conditions. Her form with ‘good’ in the going return is 112121 in two seasons, including runner-up in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
The opposition is so ordinary that we can expect another 2-9 SP at best, and this morning’s 2-5 on BETDAQ will look good when she’s won! But I shall use her only in a double to lever up my return from Vaniteux.
2.45 Kempton The Clock Leary is better than the bare form and should go well right-handed, while Gone Too Far has to bounce back after a poor effort at Plumpton and usually needs more time between races.
Front-runner Risk A Fine had to be driven out to beat a small field on the last day but the runner-up has won 12 lengths since, and the third – 15 lengths back – had scored in his previous race.
Sew On Target, from the Cue Card stable, drops to class 3 for the first time since May but was beaten for pace that day at Market Rasen, and wins only on the tough tracks – Cheltenham, Sandown, Chepstow – so I’ll take Risk A Fine to continue his progress (4.6 taken).
DEFINITELY TOO BIG AT 9.8 IN THE BETDAQ ORANGE
2.20 Ludlow Noche De Reyes and Kerryhead Storm, second and third here three weeks back, are up a grade to class-3, which neither has coped with before.
Artifice Sivola was allowed to dictate a medium pace at Fakenham, and both Father Edward and Rock N Rhythmn jumped novicey on the last day.
Minella Definitely is down two grades from a Listed, and looked the value at 9.8 on BETDAQ early mouse with the stable going places.
MELVIN HAS A GRATE CHANCE AT OFFERS OF 16.0
3.05 Chelmsford A couple of cracking handicaps, with the track specially harrowed and recompacted for this meeting.
Jamie Osborne is on a hat-trick if Outer Space can score but his orbit is over shorter (6f-7f), and I can’t fancy Lacan while Marco Botti is out of form.
Big Whiskey has a penalty and a higher grade to conquer if he is to match his Thursday CD success, and he’s never put two wins together before.
This race could come too quickly, and he has failed to reach the frame in three runs in Listed or class-2.
Mindurownbusiness is 111 in class-2 handicaps this year and, though it’s cost him a 15lb rise, he looked better than ever on his return at Lingfield and is on target for the Ladbrokes Mile Championship. A worthy favourite.
But Melvin The Grate was unlucky not to win the Ayrshire Handicap and returns to AW, on which he won three out of four at this time last year. Had my support at 16.0, with his yard having scored five times in 10 days.
3.35 Chelmsford Shipyard has had a good year on turf but the grey Stocking may be a bit disguised. Was rushed into a Listed over 6f after winning easily at Wolverhampton.
Dropped down a grade, and back a furlong today, likely to improve in her last few weeks as a three-year-old, well drawn and well priced at offers of 8.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker, settled at SP).
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) VANITEUX (1.35 Kempton)
BET 5.5pts win RISK A FINE (2.45 Kempton)
BET 2.2pts win and place MINELLA DEFINITELY (2.20 Ludlow)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts BIG WHISKEY; BET 8pts win MINDUROWNBUSINESS, and 1.3pts win and place MELVIN THE GRATE (3.05 Chelmsford)
BET 2.5pts win and place STOCKING (3.35 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4pts win double VANITEUX (1.35 Kempton) and POLLY PEACHUM (2.10 Kempton) and two 1pt win trebles the same pair with both MINDUROWNBUSINESS, and MELVIN THE GRATE (3.05 Chelmsford)
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