NAPS UP THREE DAYS OUT OF FOUR: Daqman, who landed naps on Thursday and Friday at 9-2 and 3-1, was back in the money yesterday with a third winning best bet in four days and an 8-1 winner at Aintree.
WON 8-1 KAMSINAS Aintree
WON 13-10 ENTRANCEMENT Saint-Cloud nap
TROY’S DAY OF DESTINY THIS WEEK: Look back, look forward. The City Of Troy camp has a new kid on the block. Will Twain be their next Classic winner? How does he compare with The Lion In Winter? How will either one compare with City of Troy.
NEVER THE TWAIN SHALL MEET..
Look back, look forward. City Of Troy bids for racing immortality in the Breeders Cup Classic on Saturday night.
A year ago, Aidan O’Brien, started talking of him as the best he’d ever trained. The colt had to prove it. And he did, with sequentially Derby, Eclipse and International.
Yesterday, O’Brien saddled Twain to win the Saint-Cloud Criterium International, and comparisons began tentatively: ‘He’s obviously a Guineas horse; everyone who saw him thought he was special.’
But there’s the hitch. O’Brien faces a hat-trick in the Newmarket 2,000 that he would rather do without; City of Troy (9th of 11), and before him dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin (12th of 14), both flopped in the Guineas.
In the long winter months to reality next Spring, Twain’s stablemate The Lion In Winter is a buffer to expectation, which will no doubt be in the ‘who is the best between the two?’ vein.
Will they meet in the Guineas? Will they ever meet? Is one of them the Derby winner in waiting, in the manner of another hat-trick: the re-emergence at Epsom of both Auguste Rodin and City of Troy?
Oh me! Oh this racing life? And the questions of these recurring… Look out for my Three-Year-Olds of 2025.
IT’S HOME TIME
⭕ 3.28 Ayr Home Free can continue the excellent early season form of the Skeltons who were on the mark again yesterday with Sunray Shadow at Aintree.
Home Free should enjoy a fitness edge over his rivals who, apart from one, are making their seasonal reappearances.
He built on a promising debut at Hexham when second in May to win at Uttoxeter earlier this month. It looked slightly easier than the official neck winning margin and the runner-up Cabhfuilfungi has run well again since.
Main rival on Betdaq Betting Exchange is Travail d’Orfevre who is remarkably consistent but has only managed one win from 13 over fences and that came at a lower class 5 level.
His form figures since of 222232- suggest he’ll be close up again but the penalty for his consistency is he is getting no relief from the handicapper and this is his seventh consecutive run off a mark of 105.
FORCED TO LOOK ELSEWHERE
⭕ 6.30 Southwell Class 4 is as good as it gets tonight and there might be value in opposing the well backed Force And Valour who looks a little skinny for my money.
There are three question marks and possible negatives:
(1) He has no form yet on the all-weather
(2) He seems to be getting a bit sleepy at the stalls and can’t afford to give distance away here in a race that’s technically less than five furlongs …. 4f 214y to be precise!
(3) All his four races to date have come over six furlongs – including his win at Thirsk where he was doing his best work at the end – that would seem to imply that the drop back in trip isn’t necessarily a smart move.
I’d rather play two alternatives (both to WIN 20) at much bigger prices on Betdaq.
Pouting remains a maiden but was thought good enough to contest a Listed race at Newmarket in July and although outclassed there was by no means disgraced with a good fourth at Goodwood last time out and the yard (Richard Hughes) are in great form.
I also want to include Al Hussar who is a dual winner at the minimum trip and I thought ran well at York last time when a class 3 fifth.
TOMORROW’S WINNER
⭕ 6.45 Newcastle Tomorrow Day was a course and distance winner last month and has been running much better since fitted with visor.
He’s only up a pound since the win and might just need to run his race to account for Havana Sky (yet to win on the all-weather and well held in third last time), Oriental Prince (well beaten in two previous starts here and off the track for 150 days) and Badosa (looks a Spring horse).
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.28 Ayr (win 10, nap)
BET 9.5pts win HOME FREE
6.30 Southwell (both win 20)
BET 3.7pts win POUTING
BET 2.0pts win AL HUSSAR
6.45 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win TOMORROW DAY
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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