DAQMAN HAVING A BIG-RACE BALL: Daqman stretched his supremacy over Pricewise of the Racing Post to 37 points to single-unit stakes and a lead of 10-4 for the value-tipping match when he landed the big race in Ireland, the Dan Moore Memorial, at Fairyhouse yesterday through Ball d’Arc (WON 3-1).
SMOKIN-HOT NEW-YEAR NAPS: Daqman also landed his banker, Two Smokin Barrels (WON 1-1), to make it four naps out of five for the second successive week:
WEEK ENDED JANUARY 8
WON 6-4 (Tuesday) Mixboy
WON 9-4 (Wednesday) Keeper Hill
WON 9-4 (Friday) Happy Diva
WON 11-10 (Saturday) Finian’s Oscar
WEEK ENDED JANUARY 15
WON 11-10 (Wednesday) Lady Karina
WON 11-4 (Thursday) A Little Magic
WON 5-6 (Friday banker) O O Seven
WON 1-1 (Sunday banker) Two Smokin Barrels
DAQMAN TODAY: Today DAQMAN has some fancies over jumps and on the flat including an interesting flat recruit to hurdles and a banker at Ayr.
TALE OF TWO TOP STAYERS
Which one would you like? Would you rather own a horse that’s been hiked two stone in the weights or one just on the way up that has jumped the Grand National fences and won a stamina contest eased down?
Both these jumpers are good stayers but the one up in the handicap will have to give weight all round or go the cups route; the other is just starting out, only eight years old; should he be ‘looked after’ for another year and take the low road to country grand nationals, or go straight for the big one at Liverpool?
Such are the debates around the Warwick Classic winner, One For Arthur, and the Troytown Chase hero, Empire Of Dirt.
One For Arthur What worries me about his Liverpool Grand National potential is that he won the Warwick Classic wearing a tongue-tie.
Lucinda Russell’s eight-year-old had never worn any kind of ‘furniture’ before (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces), nor had he ‘made a noise’ as far as I know.
Horses do win the Grand National and the Gold Cup in blinkers but very rarely. L’Escargot, trained by Dan Moore, whose memorial race was run at Fairyhouse yesterday, was an exception that proves the rule.
L’Escargot never achieved public adulation but won two Gold Cups (1970-1) and finished first (1975), second and third in the Grand National. L’Escargot beat Red Rum 15 lengths in the National so was seen as the bogy who beat the public favourite rather than the amazing ‘monster’ he was.
One For Arthur was fifth in the Becher Chase, staying on, over the Grand National fences in December and was always in command in the closing stages of the Warwick Classic on Saturday
The first six home in the Grand National of 2015 won by Many Clouds (160 rated) had marks of 140 or higher in this age of quality runners in a National where the obstacles are less demanding.
But last year, when Many Clouds ran again off 165, the quality took another leap forward, with every horse in the race off marks between 145 and 166; some 19 Runners were on 150 or higher.
One For Arthur was reckoned just 137 when he lined up for the Warwick Classic but the fourth horse, Houblon des Obeaux (152) had finished third to Native River in the Hennessy and, since One For Arthur beat Gooodtoknow (136) and Shotgun Paddy (139) by six lengths and four and a half, he should be hiked to between 142 and 149.
I would expect 144, well forward on the road to Aintree, but we should be told much more about any breathing problem, if we are to consider this one seriously for the National.
These days, trainers are quick to pile on the cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue-tie just to give them a bit extra. Or is there a more serious problem that may emerge?
Empire Of Dirt is the horse I was talking about that’s up two stone. Will he try to take on the field next Sunday and land a second Leopardstown Chase back to back, despite being on 160 off top weight of 11st 10lb?
If not where WILL he go? He’s completed a hat-trick since the Leopardstown race, his starting point last year off 133. He’d won just the one novice chase before that.
Empire Of Dirt then won a Grade3 3 at the Cheltenham Festival , and the Troytown Chase at Navan in November was his first run since. He absolutely cruised home.
But layers think he’s still well short of A class to win at Cheltenham. He’s 32.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange for the Gold Cup, 66.0 for the Ryanair Chase.
Don Cossack was a 175 when winning the Gold Cup but only 6lb higher than Empire Of Dirt at the same stage of their careers. Lightly raced; more improvement likely.
AYR: QUINLAN CAN GET TUNE OUT OF FEARLESS
1.40 Ayr Gordon Elliott has a 20% strike rate here at Ayr over the last five seasons and he looks to have an excellent opportunity of adding to that record with Whizzzey Rascal here. A comfortable winner of his maiden hurdle on good ground in September he showed an ability to handle very testing conditions when a close fourth at Limerick last time. He has Champion Jockey Richard Johnson in the plate today and he is fancied to hit the mark at 2.64 on BETDAQ.
3.50 Ayr Fearless Tunes ran with credit at Uttoxeter last time finishing second but 15 lengths clear of the third and can go one better now despite a 6lbs rise in the weights. In truth this looks a very weak race and the Jennie Candlish yard has been in fair form already this season with 14 winners, she also has a healthy 10% strike rate with jockey Sean Quinlan. The 2.1 available on BETDAQ looks fair and he rates as a confident selection.
PLUMPTON: NOT NEVER CAN MAKE THE SWITCH
1.25 Plumpton Notnowcato has developed into a smart dual purpose sire with classy hurdlers Old Guard and Long Dog among his progeny so it is worth a chance that smart flat performer Not Never can make the transition here. He was rated as high as 95 on the flat for Hugo Palmer and has the potential to be a good jumps recruit for Gary Moore. The current 2.62 available on BETDAQ suggests a big run is expected and he looks the bet.
3.40 Plumpton Bob Mahler ran a race full of promise on debut behind two subsequent winners and can put that experience to good use here. His trainer Warren Greatrex has his string in good form lately with 4 winners and multiple placed horses in the last two weeks. Bob Mahler is sure to be well schooled for his hurdles debut and has the potential to be a bit better than a class 5 performer. The 3.55 on BETDAQ is tempting.
WOLVERHAMPTON: UNCLE TO GET HIS HEAD IN FRONT
2.55 Wolverhampton Dutch Uncle has proved a slightly frustrating character to follow but the addition of a visor today for the first time makes him of interest. He clearly looks well treated on recent form and if he can put it all together he will be hard to beat. Ed Dunlop is having a good run of things at the moment and Martin Harley will be riding him for the fourth consecutive time, which could be significant of this tricky character. 4.5 on BETDAQ looks tempting for a well-treated horse.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win NOT NEVER (Plumpton 1.25)
BET 8pts win WHIZZZEY RASCAL (Ayr 1.40)
BET 3pts win DUTCH UNCLE (Wolverhampton 2.55)
BET 6pts win BOB MAHLER (Plumpton 3.40)
BET 9pts win FEARLESS TUNES (nap) (Ayr 3.50)
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