HOW TO WIN MONEY BETTING: How good are tipsters? What are the secrets of finding winners? How can you keep one step ahead of the form? Today Daqman places the burden on you, as he says ‘love me or leave me’ but you must do your homework.
TOMORROW: CREATURES OF HABIT: Tomorrow he continues to build the picture of what you must do to win money when he examines ‘creatures of habit’ on the racecourse who make winner-finding easier. Again, all you have to do is your homework. Again, BETDAQ Tips will help.
WEDNESDAY: How to keep one step ahead and know the value of the form. NEXT WEEK: Betting plan for Royal Ascot. Why you can’t lose with BETDAQ.
YOUR JOB TO KNOW HOW GOOD A TIPSTER IS
It’s nice of you to criticise me. It’s slightly nicer when you praise me. But both are beside the point, not relevant to your betting and your competition with other members of the BETDAQ family who lay when you bet and bet when you lay. Unless you are doing your homework.
If you’ll let me give praise and criticism for a change, I’ll tell you the man who wins money, and what really is vital to your punting.
The man who wins regularly is the man who makes up his own mind. Has an opinion. And ferrets out the value.
And my job is to try to suggest opportunities for doing so. That should be the work of every tipster. But guess where the buck stops? It stops with you.
I have had a long career as a Press tipster and writer and a professional gambler, sometimes small time, sometimes big; sometimes alongside big-name punters past and present, working with them on stats and facts even, in the last few years, algorithms.
If, in the past, I found some seeming-relevant stats, or took a phone-tipster’s tips, or info from a gallops-watcher (what used to be called a tout), the first thing I did was create a computer file or, in paper days, make up a notebook section devoted to assessing his tips or info.
MY TASK WAS KNOWING MORE ABOUT HIM THAN HE KNEW ABOUT HIMSELF!
Wouldn’t I be a fool to myself, if I didn’t know the answers to these 10 questions, when following a so-called ‘expert’:
- What is the level-stakes profit?
- How many winners to runners does he get?
- What percentage of short prices to outsiders?
- What quality of race is he good at?
- At which track does he get his winners?
- Which stable?
- Which jockey?
- Does he do better on good ground or soft?
- Is he a careful tipster or prone to panic, smothering you in tips?
- What time of year under what Rules of racing is he best?
If you follow me (Daqman), or Shamrock; Proform or Market Movers – and you certainly should – you need to have lists, tables and charts of every tip that’s given and why, with profit and loss; the lot.
It’s your part of the job. Because it’s your money. Your hobby or investment. And it’s your time and trouble. And, by the way, the BETDAQ site is FREE, so I think we do our bit with our time and trouble!
I try to be transparent in different ways with my tipping records (many available in the Daqman Library), giving updates on plus and minus, winners against losers, blah blah. Yes, I’m biased toward winners; aren’t you?
On a regular basis, sometimes daily, I mostly do assessments per type of bet in a manner that gives you a first appreciation of the column – we call it ‘new readers start here’ – and I give a regular view of the state of my tips so that the new reader could start his records from that point.
But next time you ask, or your mate asks you, ‘does he make a profit?’ (or something similar), the reply is: ‘If you don’t know, it’s your own laziness, and you are potentially missing out on a way to win money’.
I will have more for new readers about my tipping and betting – and their own responsibility – as we run up to Royal Ascot.
CAN YOU CONTINUE THE RUN? SUREWECAN
3.30 Ayr Two sequence horses. Between Millefiori (3.65 on BETDAQ this morning) and Surewecan (4.9 in the 4.00), one of them won’t let you down and can surely win you money.
The funny thing about continual – even continuous – winners is they often hold a decent price. Punters are wary of them, particularly when they go up in the handicap
It depends what the opposition can mount against them and, in Millefiori’s case today, not a lot.
Trainers Lucy Normile and Linda Perratt are badly out of form. Combined they have gone more than 540 days without a winner!
Silver Duke is a Flat-race maiden after 21 starts. Eleven times in 17 starts, Kiwi Bay has reached the first six without winning and his chance recedes the old he gets. It’s two years now since he scored.
4.00 Ayr Like Kiwi Bay, Eastern Dragon and Gold Flash haven’t scored on turf since 2014, yet they are either side of Surewecan in the BETDAQ market.
Gold Flash is 7lb better for a half-length defeat when they were one-two in April but often flatters like that, and in fact was beaten again by Surewecan after that, at Carlisle in May.
3.45 Brighton Tom Queally has one ride at each of two venues today, starting at Brighton and going on to Windsor to educate a future handicap winner.
Rydan (4.9 on BETDAQ) in this small field at Brighton for leading course trainer Gary Moore is expected to be fitter now and get his revenge on Steppe Daughter. In fact, he’s beaten her before.
Rydan has dropped 18lb in a year and is taken to beat Knight Music, a winner only once on turf. That was here at Brighton but when the ground was heavy.
DAGHASH LOOKS BIG BETDAQ VALUE AT 11.0
7.15 Pontefract Several here mix it on the Flat and over hurdles, but few have encountered firm ground and done well on it.
The exceptions are Daghash, Knight’s Parade, Tuscan Gold and Waterclock. I’ve left out Riptide, who is now 10 and has struggled for some time now.
Mickey Hammond (Waterclock and Tuscan Gold) has a very poor strike rate this year on Flat turf (6%) and Knight’s Parade is Sarah Humphrey’s first runner!
I fancy 11.0 BETDAQ value offer Daghash, who did well last summer and is back to his winning mark, if you take off Kieran Shoemark’s claim. He makes a solo 500-mile round tip from Devon.
7.30 Windsor I’m backing Sparring to pay for much of the day at around even money. His main danger, Baadi, is no more: he’s withdrawn. And Sparring’s stable has had only one out of the first four from 17 starters, six of them winners.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 7.5pts win MILLEFIORI (3.30 Ayr), if lose 6.8pts win SUREWECAN (4.00 Ayr), includes stakes cover on Millefiori bet
BET 5pts win (nap) RYDAN (3.45 Brighton)
BET 2pts win and place DAGHASH (7.15 Pontefract)
BET (to win 10pts) 10pts win SPARRING (7.30 Windsor)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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