DAQMAN’S BEST BETS IN DAQ MULTIPLES TREBLE BID: Daqman finds six horses at four meetings today as he analyses races across the cards from Newcastle to Brighton, Ffos Las and Windsor, three of them together in a confident Daq Multiples treble.
BF IF YOU DON’T BACK RIVERWING
2.00 Brighton All Back To Mine has 10lb in hand on Islay Mist on collateral form but can she beat Riverwing?
In their admirable assessment, Story of The Symbols, the Racing Post tells us that, of all the racecard indicators about wind ops, blinkers etc, the most successful by a long, long way (21% strike rate) is BF, for beaten favourite last time out.
The wind op and BF annotations are also a very long way clear for return on investment.
Riverwing’s BF came with the rare excuse that, for once, Silvestre De Sousa, didn’t ride the greatest race on the 2-1 fav at Ffos Las 10 days ago. Can George Downing do better?
You need more than one reason to back a horse, and I’ve got two more here: trainer Mick Channon has had 22 two-year-old winners on turf this year, over four times more than for all the other yards put together in this.
And he has won the race twice from just the two runners (2-2). I took 3.1 Riverwing on BETDAQ.
FILLY WITH THE BECKETT DYNASTY
2.45 Ffos Las Mick Channon might be on a quick double with his juveniles when, after Riverwing at Brighton, he saddles another with the BF badge, Karalini.
But what the Racing Post symbols do not tell you is that Karalini is, in fact, BF BF, having failed as favourite in both her races.
That, and her absence since May, makes two black marks against her, even though she was fourth on the last day to the four-time winner, Signora Cabello who subsequently landed the Queen Mary and Robert Papin double.
I’m told that Karalini has improved since the Spring and, if she wins, they’ll point at me and say: she was fourth to Signora Cabello, don’t you know!
I shall tell those guys right now, do you still want to believe in that early form, when the second and third that split Signora Cabello and Karalini have both failed to score since.
I prefer Royal Dynasty (at around 3-1), who was third much more recently behind two subsequent winners at Sandown, and is with an ace trainer of fillies in Ralph Beckett.
4.25 Windsor A lot of possibilities here so you want a price about a home improver. That’s what you get with Aristomachos, according to my man in the long grass: 15.5 on BETDAQ.
BETTING CONNOISSEUR AT BRIGHTON
5.05 Brighton My man in the long grass tells me that the 3.4 BETDAQ offer Connoisseur could be another Sir Mark Prescott sequence horse.
The grey filly comes to her first handicap in this amateur-riders’ contest under Miss Serena Brotherton, who has had nine winners this year against a total of two for all other riders in the race.
5.50 Newcastle This class-3 Tapeta handicap is the best race of the day, tough on punters.
I fancy Benadalid, 5.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, to beat the southern raiders, Recordman and Drill. ‘Ben’ is consistent and reliable, has won a grade higher and has scored on today’s surface.
It worries me that Drill, for the in-form Luca Cumani, was gifted his only success at the trip in a very slowly run race on the July Course (8 seconds slower than average on firmish ground).
Recordman’s sole success came over 10 furlongs. Life On Earth failed to step up from class 4 at Musselburgh (cheekpieces might help), and King’s Proctor has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
PRABENI HUB OF OUR DAQ MULTIPLES
7.00 Windsor William Haggas and James Doyle have a 50% strike rate as a combo at Windsor, and provide the hub of the Daq Multiples.
Their runner, Prabeni, well educated now after four runs, ran third to two future winners at Newbury in a race two grades higher than this, giving weight to the runner-up who then beat a previous winner when they met at Chelmsford.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points)
BET 10pts win (nap) RIVERWING (2.00 Brighton)
BET 6.5pts win ROYAL DYNASTY (2.45 Ffos Las)
BET 1.35pts win and place ARISTOMACHOS (4.25 Windsor)
BET 8.25pts win CONNOISSEUR (5.05 Brighton)
BET 5pts win BENADALID (5.50 Newcastle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 3pts win treble RIVERWING (2.00 Brighton), CONNOISSEUR (5.05 Brighton) and PRABENI
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