IT’S NATIONAL WEIGHTS WEEK: It’s the start of another week, which culminates in the Eider Chase on Saturday, but most important in the scheme of things are Wednesday’s weights for the Grand National, which will be discussed in Daqman’s Thursday column.
Don’t forget DAQMAN’s current sequences are now reading:
Bankers: 111111132
Lays: 11111111111
Naps: 1412
Value: Daqman 17, Pricewise 10
THE NAP IS AT CARLISLE: Tough tipping in the mud at Carlisle and Lingfield. Tony McCoy is at Carlisle but Daqman naps against him. Victory Gunner tries to win at Lingfield at the age of 17.
BRIAR HILL A STONE BETTER BEFORE A FALL
It was correction day yesterday. In all sequences where your lays and bankers have 70% as a target for profit, a straight 11 for one, seven for another – and 14 wins in three days – is bound to suffer some adverse results to correct the trend. Only to be expected.
But the painful one – for the horse, too – was Briar Hill. We were ready to trade on our 15.0 for the World Hurdle when he came smoothly through to take the Grade-2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan yesterday.
Had he won, he would have turned round his Galmoy defeat by a stone! Instead, he took a crashing fall, and any fall, crashing or not, for his World Hurdle price was not to be.
He’ll probably need some time to get over it, so we’re more than likely looking at Aintree or Punchestown, not Cheltenham, for which our ante-post list now looks like this (expect one or two more before the week itself):
44.0 x 1.1 CAUSE OF CAUSES (win 50, NH Chase, Tuesday). Now as low as 16-1 (bookies) and 41.0 (Betdaq)
15.5 x 3.5 VIBRATO VALTAT (win 50, Arkle Chase, Tuesday). Now 5-1 and 8.2
23.0 x 1.8 APACHE STRONGHOLD (win 40, RSA Chase, Wednesday). Now 10-1 and 92.0
05.1 x 10 DODGING BULLETS (win 40, Champion Chase, Wednesday) Now 7-2 and 4.9
07.4 x 4.6 APACHE STRONGHOLD (win 30, JLT Chase, Cheltenham, Thursday). Now 5-1 and 7.6
15.0 x 3.5 BRIAR HILL (win 50, World Hurdle, Thursday). Now 16-1 and 23.0
07.8 x 5.8 BRISTOL DE MAI (win 40, Triumph Hurdle, Friday). Now 16-1 and 49.0
39.0 x 2.6 PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (win 100, Triumph Hurdle, Friday). Now 14-1 and 20.0
54.0 x 1.0 FLETCHER (win 50, Albert Bartlett, Friday). Now 25-1and 198.0
GO NORTH AND NAP ‘WEST’ ON STAMINA
CARLISLE It was part of our day of disaster yesterday that the solo ride for Tony McCoy billed in this column for Ffos Las didn’t happen.
The three-month lap of honour continues instead at Carlisle, where he’s booked for three rides, all for Jonjo O’Neill, just the one for J P McManus.
Flat-bred Rock N Rhythm (2.25) has set up a bridesmaid sequence of 3322 in bumpers in Ireland for a Flat yard. Interesting that his hurdles debut today is beyond the minimum.
Three Faces West is a stamina horse on breeding and put that to good use, making all and surging clear at Ayr. Gone Forever also pulled clear at Market Rasen over a trip similar to today’s.
The third horse home behind Gone Forever that day has scored back-to-back wins this month. – his trainer? Jonjo O’Neill – but Three Faces West looks the one most likely to on this tough track.
From first to last, in which there’s a tip for Hartside but McCoy will Beg To Differ. In fact, Hartside has dropped 9lb in the ratings over a year, but missed out on the race he wanted at Catterick, finishing second, beaten favourite only a head as he tried to step up on the previous year’s third in the same race.
I’m not sure the deteriorating ground will suit Hartside (nor Stylish Chap), whereas Beg To Differ, making his handicap debut here, won on the soft at Wetherby.
He had to work hard that day and has always been thought of as needing further but the ground and A P McCoy will play to his strengths.
McCoy has his only mount for McManus in the middle of the afternoon. Upswing (4.00) has been beaten 152 lengths in his three starts since winning at Newbury a year ago but this is a drop to the lowest level over hurdles since November, 2013.
The handicapper has been unkind to the hat-trick winner Spanish Fleet, up 8lb for winning, up another 8lb for being beaten on the last day!
Gold Futures, who also completed a hat-trick in the summer, looks a bigger threat. He’s won in class 2 and was overfaced on his second run back on the first day of this month.
Gold Futures’ stable is in terrific form and his 7.8 offers on BETDAQ this morning were excellent value, with Upswing at 4.4. I dutched them but they are of similar strength in my BETDAQ staking method.
LINGFIELD Modest stuff at Lingfield in the mud, conditions which will suit Boru’s Brook (2.15) and Catchin Time (4.50), two obvious ones for your Daq Multiples.
Seven runners in the three-mile handicap chase (2.45) have a combined age of 84 and the front seven in the market are offered 3.2 points part. Open, quirky race or what!
The bulking of the age stat is by Victory Gunner’s 17 years, and he will enjoy the conditions. First-time visored Volio Vincente could avenge defeat by Brunettesonly and Red Anchor.
But another mudlover, Tarabela, gets the vote, 21lb below her hurdles mark and with her February form in the last four years: 011111.
Another for the multiples is Aiteen Thirtythree (4.20), one-time Graded performer for Paul Nicholls who was 4-4 in points last season.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9, according to strength; banker 10)
BET 6pts win (nap) THREE FACES WEST (2.25 Carlisle)
BET 3pts win TARABELA (2.45 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win on each GOLD FUTURES and UPSWING (4.00 Carlisle)
BET 6pts win BEG TO DIFFER (5.00 Carlisle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee BORU’S BROOK (2.15 Lingfield), THREE FACES WEST (2.25 Carlisle), AITEEN THIRTYTHREE (4.20 Lingfield), CATCHIN TIME (4.50 Lingfield)
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