CAN FESTIVAL HOT FOUR ALL SCORE? Don’t miss the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival tomorrow. It’s the hot one, with all the short-odds favourites of the week crammed into one day. Daqman’s race-by-race analysis will focus on the big four; all Irish. But can they all win?
Douvan (Supreme Novice)?
Un De Sceaux (Arkle Chase?
Faugheen (Champion Hurdle)?
Annie Power (Mares Hurdle)?
BIG WINNERS ALREADY ON BETDAQ: Daqman is already ahead of the game with superb ante-post bets on BETDAQ which have crashed in price from 44.0 to 7-1, from 39.0 to 16-1 and from 15.5 to 9-2. He lists them today. He’ll add to them tomorrow. Betdaq has the big offers; Daqman has the big winners.
TOMORROW: NH CHASE BETDAQ 44.0 NOW 7-1
A big boost to the cause. Bets taken for Cheltenham in this column were treble the current price and even six times the odds now available with bookmakers, revealing the value of BETDAQ ante-post betting.
We’ve got big overs about Arkle second favourite Vibrato Valtat, which we can trade, and a massive margin which puts us in a can’t-lose situation with Cause Of Causes for the NH Chase.
My records will not show my profit on a trade. After all it’s up to you how you deal with the overs. You could, for instance, lay Cause Of Causes at, say 10.7 (which I’ve seen), and pocket the difference between winnings from your bet and the cost of paying out on the lay.
My profit-and-loss account will show this: where I have obtained overs, the original stake will not count against me. That’s the least you can do; save your stake.
15.5 x 3.5 VIBRATO VALTAT (win 50, Arkle Chase, Tuesday). Now 9-2 (bookmakers) and 7.6 (Betdaq)
5.5 x 9.0 GLENS MELODY (win 40, Mares Hurdle, Tuesday). Now 4-1 (bookmakers) and 5.5 (Betdaq)
44.0 x 1.1 CAUSE OF CAUSES (win 50, NH Chase, Tuesday). Now average 7-1 (bookmakers) and 9.2 (Betdaq)
WEDNESDAY: THE BIG CHAMPION SHOWDOWN
We’re dodging champions. Remember when 5.1 Dodging Bullets looked bang on target? The two previous Champion Chasers, Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, were off piste.
Now both are back in form for the slopes of Prestbury Park in one of the biggest showdowns Cheltenham has seen. We’ll just have to bite the bullet!
23.0 x 1.8 APACHE STRONGHOLD (win 40, RSA Chase, Wednesday). Now NR
9.01 x 5 SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (win 40, Champion Chase, Wednesday) Now 7-1 (bookmakers) and 7.4 (Betdaq)
5.1 x 10 DODGING BULLETS (win 40, Champion Chase, Wednesday) Now 9-2 (bookmakers) and 6.6 (Betdaq)
THURSDAY: BRAVE SHOUT ON APACHE SWITCH
We’re well covered. We took out insurance against Apache Stronghold’s switch to the JLT from the RSA and we’re in the picture again with Briar Hill for the World Hurdle, our bet back on an even keel.
With Annie Power’s now near-certain participation in the Mares Hurdle, Willie Mullins has to hope that Briar Hill jumps a whole World better than when a mistake at the last cost him the Ladbrokes Boyne Hurdle prep at Navan when he was finishing in front of stablemate Zaidpour.
7.4 x 4.6 APACHE STRONGHOLD (win 30, JLT Chase, Cheltenham, Thursday). Now 5-1 (bookmkakers) and 6.6 (Betdaq)
15.0 x 3.5 BRIAR HILL (win 50, World Hurdle, Thursday). Now 14-1 (bookmakers) and 14.5 (Betdaq)
15.5 x 3.4 ANNIE POWER (win 50, World Hurdle, Thursday). Now 4-1 and 44.0. Doubtful
FRIDAY: A TRIUMPH ALREADY WITH CHOCOLAT
No pain; all gain! We’re in a trade-off situation with Pain Au Chocolat in the Triumph Hurdle, in from our 39.0 on BETDAQ to less than half that with bookmakers. And it’s a free bet!
Whether you want to hedge, stick or bust, don’t forget: the bet is already paid for. We covered our Cheltenham stakes with a winning bet on Pain Au Chocolat in his prep race. We’re ahead of the game; the bread is made.
7.8 x 5.8 BRISTOL DE MAI (win 40, Triumph Hurdle, Friday). Now NR
39.0 x 2.6 PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (win 100, Triumph Hurdle, Friday). Now 16-1 average (bookmakers) and 19.5 (Betdaq)
54.0 x 1.0 FLETCHER (win 50, Albert Bartlett, Friday). Now NR. Won yesterday at 20-1.
9.8 x 4.8 LE MERCUREY (win 40, Martin Pipe Hurdle, Friday). Now 8-1 (bookmakers) and 8.8 (Betdaq)
..AND A FREE BET ON THE GRAND NATIONAL
2.82 x 11 Mrs S Ricci (RICH RICCI) (win 20, Leading Owner all four days, Cheltenham Festival).
29.0 x 3.5 ROCKY CREEK (win 100, Grand National, Liverpool, April 11). Free bet; stakes paid by win in prep race.
46.0 x 2.20 NIGHT IN MILAN (win 100, Grand National, Liverpool, April 11).
ADMIRAL NAP AT STRATFORD
‘Cheltenham Eve’ couldn’t get us in better form for the Festival. Three meetings, all over jumps including a group of Irish trained runners at Stratford.
Although today is not a day to be hasty with big bets, it could still be a good day for the punters and I have picked out a few that look to be the best bets of the day.
Starting at Stratford, my Nap is the earliest runner of the day at 2.40. Rear Admiral should really have won last time out at Musselburgh only to get caught on the line by Present Lodger. It is likely that the Michael Easterby trained gelding just didn’t see out the full extent of the two and a half mile trip that day and drops back to two miles and one furlong today.
Trip, ground and track should suit and it is hard to see Midnight Chorister or Eastern Witness being able to topple the jolly.
The next race looks to be a competitive Handicap Chase over two miles and seven. Of the seven runners, it is actually quite difficult to eliminate one but I think I have the key with Billy Twyford.
Despite lacking in experience slightly, Lawney Hill’s charge can build on those two runs so far and looks very nicely handicapped compared to his previous hurdling form. Although he is prone to the odd jumping error, the form of those two chase runs is strong with Sego Success, winner last time out, high in the betting for the National Hunt Chase tomorrow at Cheltenham and If In Doubt subsequently won the Great Yorkshire Chase.
Billy Twyford appears to be the value bet in a competitive race, but slightly smaller stakes are advised.
The finale at Stratford sees two Irish runners take on a field of 9 with the Gordon Elliot trained John Monash heading the betting at a shade of odds on.
Gold Cup winning trainer, Jim Culloty, sends out the other runner with Robbie McNamara taking the mount on the son of King’s Theatre who has two runs behind him and at 7.4 on BETDAQ this morning, he is the value for an each way bet in the race before we turn to Cheltenham.
Over at Taunton, Paul Nicholl’s warms up for the Festival with just two runners, one at Stratford and Buck’s Bond at Taunton. He runs at 3.50 and having won at this track previously, I think he can make it two from two there in this three and a half mile Handicap Chase. It’s going to take a lot to get home today and you can discount his last run when pulling up at Wincanton but he looks to be running off a handy mark today on 119 and the talented Jack Sherwood takes a further five off.
Grove Pride is the obvious danger, as is Kasbadali, who ran in the same at Exeter last time. That form is hard to take very literally being a veteran’s Chase and being beaten by the slogger that is Soll. Buck’s Bond looks to be the one to get Nicholls off to a winner on the most important week of the year.
Finally at Plumpton, Aviador bids to atone for Unseating Luke Ingram last time at Fakenham as Lizzie Kelly takes over on the 9 year old. He should be well able to cope with the seven pound rise in the Handicap as Kelly takes a valuable seven back off but in saying, I am not enamored by the fact that he received seven pounds for finishing second the time before over course and distance and then not finishing the Fakenham race.
This is not an overly strong contest and it is hard to come up with a viable alternative with the exception of Flugzeug, but it is hard to see him making it tough for Aviador.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 8pts win (Nap) REAR ADMIRAL (2.40 Stratford)
BET 2pts win BILLY TWYFORD (3.10 Stratford)
BET 6pts win BUCK’S BOND (3.50 Taunton)
BET 6pts win AVIADOR (4.00 Plumpton)
BET 3pts win and place MIDSOMARKRANSEN (5.10 Stratford)
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