RIVER OF WINNERS FOR DAQMAN: Daqman completed a seven-day run of 13 winners with his Sunday nap, River Of Stars (WON 1-1), which gave him another profit on the day, thanks to his credible staking plan.
*Full day-by-day list of winners in Sunday’s Daqman.
HOW YOU CAN SPOT BIG STRIKES: Daqman had strikes at Royal Ascot at 12-1 (17.0 on BETDAQ) AND 14-1 SP (twice), which were taken at 19.0 and 18.5 on BETDAQ, and spotted places at BETDAQ offers of 43.0, 31.0, 30.0 (twice). He explains how the search for big-odds value has become essential and what methods he uses.
BETDAQ FOR BIG-HANDICAP VALUE
YOU can spot potential winners at huge prices every day. Or simply leave it to Daqman and the value offers on the BETDAQ exchange which are revised up to the ‘off’ and beyond!
Handicaps for horses have become handicaps for punters, unless you evaluate their chances by accumulating the logic of past performance, statistics and the current form ability of their trainer and jockey.
We all love Cheltenham and Royal Ascot but those who used to like the challenge of a field of around 16 handicappers suddenly find that they now have to split huge fields of double that size, even more; the racecourse can’t or won’t divide them.
For form study, they need to be split into manageable groups, then again groups to try to go along with trends and, at Royal Ascot, groups that have the apparent best chance on the draw, allied with the pace possibilities of each horse in each section.
An algorithmic approach like this is more and more essential because many such handicaps are very tight, just a few pounds difference in the top dozen and not much given away to lighter weights.
First step is to decide how, say, 30 runners are likely to divide from the stalls.. into two groups or three? The discernible pace horses might decide the arrowhead of each group, which one might have the fastest leader and which hold-up horses will benefit.
When I see tipsters and bloggers making one selection from these cavalry charges, I know they cannot seriously be trying to make a profit for themselves or their followers.
Bookmakers have no sympathy; their takes from such races have been adding up to 140 total percentage (Saturday’s Wokingham Stakes) compared with the morning offers of around 107% on BETDAQ.
On Friday, the three handicaps were returned at Total SPs of 133 (Duke Of Edinburgh), 136 (Sandringham) and 136 again (Palace Of Holyrood House).
If you find big BETDAQ value, you can follow the market: one opportunity gained, more later to add to your wallet, to hedge with, or to lay.
So, in these times of huge fields and tight handicaps, you can use various offers and staking plans to take a wider interest in the race.
👀 TOMORROW: Fortune Cookies update
👀 LOOK OUT for preview to next weekend’s Irish Derby and Northumberland Plate.
NO PROTEST FROM ME
⭕ 4.15 Chepstow This is a really modest sprint in which Protest Rally stands out on current form.
He has improved for the drop back to the minimum trip with a good ground win at Musselburgh followed up by a second at Musselburgh when it was soft.
Off the same mark today he should prove too strong in a race where main dangers Gunnerside (might lack in speed having raced over seven furlongs latest) and Louis Treize (takes ages to get going) are clearly vulnerable.
GASTRONOMY LOOKS TOO TASTY
⭕ 5.00 Thirsk The smallest handicap field of the day at Thirsk is also the most competitive! You don’t always need a huge field to guarantee an open Betdaq Betting Exchange market.
Predicting which one will even start favourite is hard enough and that hasn’t got any easier with the defection of Quantum Leap.
Starting at the bottom (in terms of betting order) and Charlie Johnston’s La Pulga is the only runner with a previous win over this 1m 6f distance.
That came at Salisbury in 2022 when there was give in the ground and I’m not sure his recent efforts (beaten total 30 lengths in last two races) suggest a return to winning form is imminent.
The Johnston stable is a hard one to work out as I found out to my cost with Yorkindness yesterday who was solid in the market but dropped away tamely.
Boldly has the considerable assistance of man (only just) of the moment Billy Loughnane who once again showcased his precocious talent at Royal Ascot last week.
Boldly has an absence of 236 days to overcome and is unproven at the trip and not one for me at a relatively short price.
I prefer Gastronomy who has yet to win on turf but there was enough to like about his Catterick third last time out (same distance and ground) to think that he could go close with a similar effort in a race full of question marks.
EMERALD CAN STILL SHINE
⭕ 5.30 Thirsk Emeralds Pride bids to make it a remarkable five wins in a row for Darlington based trainer Michael Dods.
I say remarkable as you seldom see such a sequence as the handicapper usually spoils the party.
But when you win by 1/2 length, short head, nose and a length even the handicapper can’t be too tough.
He’s up another 4lb today but might still be improving enough to offset that and he does bounce off this ground.
I’ll include him alongside Law Of Average, backing both to with 10 points.
Law Of Average is very unexposed and was in at the deep end at Epsom last time out when contesting a class 2 from 10lb out of the handicap.
In form terms he is better judged on earlier promising efforts and this will seem a lot easier for him than Epsom.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
4.15 Chepstow (win 10, nap)
BET 6.6pts win PROTEST RALLY
5.00 Thirsk (win 10)
BET 2.2pts win GASTRONOMY
5.30 Thirsk (back both to win 10pts)
BET 2.2pts win LAW OF AVERAGE
BET 1.0pts win EMERALDS PRIDE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
