TASTE OF SUPERNAP HONEY FOR DAQMAN PUNTERS: ‘Honeysuckle wins: no contest’. That was Daqman’s headline BEFORE the big Fairyhouse meeting yesterday. Win she did, a tasty supernap at 6-4, the second supernap up in three days.
WON 6-4 HONEYSUCKLE (supernap yesterday, Mares Novice Champion)
WON 4-9 KACHY (supernap Friday, AW Sprint Champion)
YOUNG PRETENDERS COULD CORNER THE NATIONAL: It’s Grand National day in Ireland and Bank Holiday Monday with six meetings in England. Daqman analyses the National with a different approach. The English Jumps season ends on Saturday but Ireland goes on to Punchestown (April 30 to May 4) with repercussions to the Galway Festival in the summer. He picks some youngsters to continue to do well.
🔹 ‘NATIONAL’ STEAL: STAY WITH BETDAQ
🔹 YOUNG PRETENDERS
🔹 DAQMAN’S ORDER IN
🔹 THE TON-UP NATIONAL
🔹 ENGLISH HOLIDAY PICK AT 6 MEETINGS
🔹 WIN WIN SITUATION AT PLUMPTON
🔹 ENTER EXITAS OFF HIS RIGHT MARK
NATIONAL STEAL: STAY WITH BETDAQ
5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National) Gordon Elliott 12, Willie Mullins 7; Gigginstown 12, J P McManus 5. These rugby-score runners for Ireland’s top owners and trainers seems to make it hard on the punter to land a touch or even bother to try.
But tactics won’t help anyone here in this flag-to-post charge on top of the ground and you can treat the race like any other, with this proviso: take the value odds on BETDAQ.
At least the pocket-picking 149% overround of last year’s SP on this race was beneath the 163% total-percentage SP of the Liverpool Grand National earlier this month. Beneath contempt, in fact!
Secondly, avoid the mud-lovers, who are unlikely to bring one-paced stamina into play as the sun shines on the 3m 5f of the Fairyhouse terrain. So it looks like a race for young improvers.
YOUNG PRETENDERS
Any Second Now Three Cheltenham runners have won this in the decade, though no winners at the festival have done the double. But this Kim Muir victor is only seven – like three of the last five National heroes here – and may be able to improve again in only his second race beyond 3m.
Burrows Saint is even younger (just six) and has had only three chases since coming to Ireland from France. Carries a penalty for winning a recent Graded novice chase at Limerick.
Roaring Bull staying on third in the Limerick race and now better off at the weights with Burrows Saint.
Tout Est Permis Another six-year-old, but his hat-trick, which included the Troytown Chase, has hiked his weight 29lb.
Shady Operator aged six and still learning, but highly thought of, related to Aintree hero Corbiere on the dam’s side. Punchestown winner on good ground.
Whisperinthebreeze a fourth six-year-old, son of stamina-laden Kayf Tara, fell when in front in four-miler on the soft at Cheltenham. Conditions to suit today and stable had the runner-up at Aintree.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN
My Liverpool Grand National outsider this year, Valseur Lido ,made steady progress three out but faded between the last two fences. Claimed off, so down 12lb here but has Aintree left its mark?
Dounikos also ran well for a long way at Aintree and is a winner on good ground. The same proviso applies. As it does for Jury Duty.
Cross-country star Auvergnat is 12lb higher than when winning the PP Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but is also claimed off.
Bellow Mome, third in the Leinster National, is weighted to turn around the placings with the winner, Pairofbrowneyes, who is best on soft-heavy.
Shattered Love is a big honest mare, who jumps like a gelding, and has always looked like a stayer to me. Davy ‘Tiger Roll’ Russell would be landing an amazing double.
VERDICT, with BETDAQ offers this morning: 1 Shattered Love (21.0), 2 Any Second Now (16.0), 3 Auvergnat (24.0), 4 Whisperinthebreeze (22.0), 5 Burrows Saint (9.8). I’ll stake on the three biggest offers.
WIN WIN SITUATION AT PLUMPTON
1.50 Plumpton It’s another Zanzi Win win situation! If you don’t want to take my word for it (I’ve been out of form lately), read the trainer’s comments on this BETDAQ site.
Harry Whittington seems pretty confident that Zanzi can shrug off a penalty for his CD success of a fortnight or so ago, with Fred Winter sixth Praeceps making a price for us.
3.00 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Chase) Paul Nicholls has always thought a lot about Romain De Senam (around 2-1 this morning) but had to drop him from Graded company into small fields at Taunton and then Fontwell. He won both on good ground.
Not Another Muddle ran him to a length at Fontwell 10 days ago and would have been 7lb better off had not Nicholls claimed off his seven-year-old via Lorcan Williams. Could be a thriller for your money!
3.25 Huntingdon Although the pressure is off and he landed his 200 with a six-timer yesterday, Dan Skelton is at Chepstow, Fakenham, Huntingdon and Plumpton today.
His runner in this, So Lonely, and the one giving him a pound, Saumur, were both Huntingdon course-and-distance winners 11 days ago, Saumur in a faster race but with the mare Jane Lamb, from So Lonely’s stable, in third.
ENTER EXITAS OFF HIS RIGHT MARK
3.30 Fakenham Hammersley Lake has never won this far, albeit it’s a small field of veterans and he was a good third against younger horses at Warwick on the last day.
Exitas was zapped 10lb by the handicapper for winning at Aintree in the autumn. Has kept good company since but is back to the winning mark in a moderate race. Tasty 4.3 on BETDAQ.
Value At Risk is still 12lb higher than when scoring at the Market Rasen January meeting. Minella On Line was back to fair form last time but hasn’t won for two years. Vaxalco is still a maiden after 10 chases.
3.40 Redcar Nigel Tinkler and Rowan Scott had a winner at Redcar’s opening meeting a fortnight ago, and ‘Tink’ had Seen The Lyte ready early last year, landing a hat-trick in April-May. He scored off around today’s mark at Doncaster later on. Saver: Saluti.
3.45 Chepstow Sizing Platinum is more than twice the age of Magic Saint, who has the trip and ground right here, unlucky to stumble out of a handicap at the Scottish national meeting.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 6pts win ZANZI WIN
3.00 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 5pts win ROMAIN DE SENAM
3.25 Huntingdon (win 10)
BET 5pts win SO LONELY
3.30 Fakenham (win 20)
BET 6pts win EXITAS
3.40 Redcar (win 20 and stakes saver)
BET 1pt win and place SEEN THE LYTE
BET 2pts win SALUTI
3.45 Chepstow (supernap)
BET 20pts win MAGIC SAINT
THE TON-UP IRISH NATIONAL
5.00 Fairyhouse (all to win 100)
BET 5pts win SHATTERED LOVE
BET 4.75pts win WHISPERINTHEBREEZE
BET 4.25pts win AUVERGNAT
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