9-2 LATE CHRISTMAS BOX FROM THE SUSSEX NATIONAL: Daqman’s staking plan triumphed again yesterday with the proceeds from Christmas In April (WON 9-2) in the Sussex National paying for the day with a bit to spare. Says our man: ‘I will use the same system for Thursday’s North Yorkshire Grand National: an outsider and a short shot.’ He now leads Pricewise 25-12, some 287 points clear of his arch-rival.
GET GEARED UP WITH CHELTENHAM HORSES TO FOLLOW: Cheltenham entries are due tomorrow! You can mark them down against Daqman’s Final Table of Fortune Cookies, produced below after a hatful of winners from his testing of 23 horses to follow. Daqman questions the increasing trend towards wind ops, and hopes one of them is successful for his supernap.
FORTUNE COOKIES FINAL TABLE
Lucky thirteen? We’ve had 11 winners from the horses to follow intended to produce my 2020 Fortune Cookies. Here are the 13 left in, losers deleted, recent improvers added.
I may have been harsh with some, who can redeem themselves, and other changes may occur from my January-February features (like ‘where the winners come from’) which is the next pointer to Cheltenham and the festival season.
🏇 BATTLEOVERDOYEN (Gordon Elliott
🏇 CYRNAME (Paul Nicholls)
🏇 DELTA WORK (Gordon Elliott)
🏇 EASYWORK (Gordon Elliott)
🏇 ELIMAY (Willie Mullins)
🏇 ENVOI ALLEN (Gordon Elliott)
🏇 EPATANTE (Nicky Henderson)
🏇 FLORESSA (Nicky Henderson)
🏇 GO WHATEVER (Chris Gordon)
🏇 HONEYSUCKLE (Henry De Bromhead)
🏇 NOTEBOOK (Henry De Bromhead)
🏇 THYME HILL (Philip Hobbs)
🏇 WALK IN THE MILL (Robert Walford)
🏇 VINNDICATION (Kim Bailey) reserve; being assessed after stone bruise
THE EDGE SEEMS TO BE BLOWN..
Layers are no longer getting the wind up. But it’s the vets who are making a fortune. Fourteen more on the cards today alone.
What am I talking about? Well, the trend to wind ops. More and more of them (with 1,400 runners in the last year), and the increased quantity alone seems to have dropped the average level of success.
Now, according to the Racing Post, the wins-to-runners percentage is down below the success rate of course winner, distance winner and CD winner, and ‘beaten favourite last time out’ is way ahead.
Is it that some trainers with poor animals are using the wind op as a backstop; let’s try to improve the breathing apparatus on an otherwise lost cause; see what happens?
Whatever, wind ops are no longer the betting edge they were, unless you are a wise punter and check out which trainers use them best.
This week I’ll be talking a lot about keeping records and this is one of them, waiting for us to hone the edge so that it’s still worthwhile.
Meanwhile, in the next two days, I’m checking out my own records for big-race success and which meetings are likely to be best during the year ahead.
..RIGHT OFF THE BEAUFORT SCALE
1.50 Chepstow Beaufort West was highly regarded last year, and the in-form Tizzard stable, which uses wind ops well, thinks he is nicely handicapped and hope his recent surgery will do the trick.
The money was down when Beaufort West ran a good second at Sandown splitting two winners last February.
His sights were raised unsuccessfully to the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and, on his reappearance in October, to a Grade 3 here at Chepstow.
The local horse Jack Valentine could improve dropped back to the minimum after fading on the last day over 2m 4f.
2.25 Chepstow The ground at Lingfield last month was too heavy for The Manuscript, and Tanrudy has seemed to struggle in three races since scoring first time after wind surgery in November.
So I took Ector (at BETDAQ 5.9) after a double wind-op. He was much improved at ffos Las, probably unlucky to be beaten into second place when hampered by a loose horse.
GREEN FOR RED IN THE ORANGE
6.45 Wolverhampton Hughie Morrison’s horses paid for Christmas, and more, with three straight wins in three days, still standing, starting on Boxing Day.
His three-year-old Ampney Red looks poised to improve for the step up in trip for his first handicap this evening.
Red got the green light for value at 6.3 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, nearly twice the price of the favourite, Bee Able, who is also stepping up in trip.
I shall watch the market and might find Bee Able doable later on, though a first-time visor suggests her being hampered at Kempton might have been partly her own fault.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked as advised)
1.50 Chepstow (supernap)
BET 20pts win BEAUFORT WEST
2.25 Chepstow (win 10)
BET 2pts win ECTOR
6.45 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 3.75pts win AMPNEY RED
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