CHRISTMAS GIFT WINS AT 7-1: Daqman, who landed a hat-trick of bankers on Saturday, had three more winning bets yesterday for yet another day of profit (61 points up for the weekend). He had three winners and three thirds from seven selections, including Shaky Gift (WON 7-1), which he described as a seasonal gift. The three winners were:
WON 7-1 Shaky Gift
WON 9-4 Bears Rails
WON 15-8 Mystic Sky
TODAY: Daqman sets out the stats and what they mean for the King George at Kempton Park on Boxing Day.
TOMORROW: He does the same for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on December 27.
MULLINS STATS VOTE IN KING GEORGE
The king is dead; long live the king. Winners of the King George V1 Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day start young and have long successful lives but, when they finally abdicate, another young pretender takes the throne.
Only four horses have won this race since 2004, with winning sequences of Kauto Star 5, Kicking King 2, Long Run 2, Silviniaco Conti 2, but all four won the race first time at age 6 or 7.
And it’s the same story way back: sequence winners Pendil (2), Captain Christy (2), Silver Buck (2), Wayward Lad (3), Desert Orchid (4), The Fellow (2) and See More Business (2) were all six or seven when their reigns began.
So, unless you reckon Silviniaco Conti can continue his domination of the last two years, there is no point in looking for his successor among those experienced chasers of eight, nine and 10 years old. If they were gonna win it, they’d have done so already. No excuses.
Don Cossack, Road To Riches and Smad Place are all eight year-olds: the only hope for them is that they can do a Teeton Mill (1998) or Florida Pearl (2001) and score in a rare one-off situation when its a moderate year. But this year’s field doesn’t look moderate, does it.
The stats lean towards a new star, aged six or seven: Djakadam, Don Poli, Vautour and Valseur Lido all fitted the bill, all trained Willie Mullins. As they used to say in the old Handicap Book: 3.30 Kempton, Saturday: ‘stable selected’.
But Mullins may run just two and his vote seems to be for Vautour – there’s decent liquidity at 3.85 in the BETDAQ orange – as the chosen one, dividing Don Cossack and Cue Card in the market, with the Hennessy winner, Smad Place, now a confirmed runner and introduced at 9.8.
MONDAY TEMPLATE FOR FRY DAY..
12.40 and 3.10 Lingfield Dr Richard Newland performed a chasing miracle when he got a Grand National hero, Pineau De Re, to win another race. He has two runners today.
It could be worth following his mud-loving Westerner, Westren Warrior (12.40), who likes to front-run and, dropping back in trip from a good effort at Southwell, may be hard to catch in the conditions.
Danvinnie is a bridesmaid (232 form) but Who’s Micky Brown must be feared for the burgeoning Bath stable of Neil Mulholland, who landed us a 7-1 winner yesterday.
Newland’s Bold Bachelor (3.10) has a lot to prove, as a Pointer making his third attempt at chasing under Rules, the first two tries yielding nothing in Ireland.
Expanding Universe won a novice chase in the mud, and there’s Kerry Lee again dropping Mr Bachster back to more like his winning trip. Pass.
1.40 and 3.40 Lingfield Dorset trainer Harry Fry currently has a 30% record, both chases and hurdles, and has been in the area of 25% on average since his training career began in 2012. A punter’s trainer, in fact.
Liam McKenna keeps the ride on Fry’s progressive Template (1.40) after winning two out of three on him.
Similarly, Chris Gordon calls in Harry Cobden to keep Superciliary down to a winning mark, though he doesn’t have the consistency of Template. Ditto Dormouse.
Both last-day winners are out again pretty quickly, and a bigger threat may be Light Well. Gary Moore has been in stunning form lately and, though a glass horse, Light Well is useful on his day and will have been got up for this.
Last time we saw the horse 13 months or so ago, he ran third to Saturday’s joint winner of The Ladbroke, Jolly’s Cracked It.
I shall nominate Fry’s Little Acorn (3.40) as a stable saver to Template. By Presenting, out of a classy Oscar mare, Little Acorn was made favourite on the debut, and the AW track should suit.
Briac is a modest sort and Mr Mountain is another returning after a long lay-off, but with Emma Lavelle reaching for a first-time hood.
MOLLY’S MARES CLAIM LOOKS HANDY
2.10 Lingfield This is a tough test for horse and punter alike on the heavy Lingfield turf. Hereford trainer Kerry Lee is another trying to catch one fresh. The stable is in good form and Kris Spin should place, but has been trustworthy only as a bridesmaid over hurdles with form figures of 22212222.
However, Kris is related to good chasers and is still only seven, so the bigger obstacles may be his game.
Drumacoo is another on the comeback trail and another with his trainer – Ben Pauling – reaching for the first-time hood, and hoping to catch one fresh on his chase debut. Pauling had three winners out of five last week.
Warrantor, who last autumn beat the useful Arzal over hurdles, has already tried fences, and Molly’s A Diva returns to them a year on. Molly jumps well, loves the mud, and her 7lb mares’ allowance could be very useful.
A 7.6 BETDAQ offer as I write, Molly is 141 over hurdles (which revises to 148 here) to Kris Spin’s 145, Kayf Moss’s 143 and Drumacoo’s 136. But they’ve moved the hurdles and put fences in the way.
2.40 Lingfield Harry Cobden’s claim is useful again on 3.35 BETDAQ favourite Anda De Grissay, who may have too much class for these. Twenty Eight Guns lacks pace, and Kentford Heiress has been winning on a sounder surface.
We can’t take our betting too seriously today, so I’ll also have a pound on Strange Bird (8.2), whose last success came after a ‘P’. Where was it? Answer: at Lingfield on heavy.
FRENCH RAIDER BORSAKOV IS TOO BIG
3.50 Chelmsford A class-2 which features the second appearance in UK of Cape Town Group performer Cold As Ice, well backed at Wolver last month but probably needing the experience over here, and dtrong again in the market this morning, 2.78 on BETDAQ.
Borsakov was third in April to the subsequent French Derby winner, New Bay, before winning well on the Deauville Polytrack, yet Cold As Ice is rated 18lb higher.
I don’t think we can take it literally. I would back French ratings and French horses over South African, and Borsakov is too big at 17.5.
A Dylan Thomas out of a half-sister to an Arc winner, confidence in him is high enough, less than three weeks after his Deauville win, to make the Channel crossing for this.
Outer Space was placed at today’s level over a mile here at Chelmsford but remained a nearly horse when dropped back to class 3 on the last day. Realize came good on this course 11 days ago and looks a bigger threat.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 4pts win on each WESTREN WARRIOR and WHO’S MICKY BROWN (12.40 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win TEMPLATE and 3pts win LIGHT WELL (1.40 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win MOLLY’S A DIVA (2.10 Lingfield)
BET 6pts win (nap) ANDA DE GRISSAY and 2pts win STRANGE BIRD (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win LITTLE ACORN (3.40 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win COLD AS ICE, and 1pt win and place BORSAKOV (3.50 Chelmsford)
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