ZIG ZAG ROUTE TO A 7-4 NAP: Daqman followed Silvestre De Sousa with Southern raiders on Ripon yesterday to pay for his Classic bets at Deauville: Zig Zag Girl (WON 7-4, nap) and Sagely (WON 5-2), so that he starts the week:
Bankers 3-7
Naps 1-2
Fortune Cookies 1-2
Lays (86%) 19 out of 22
Challenge: Daqman 30, Pricewise 9
TODAY: DERBY CONUNDRUM: Daqman looks at the Derby scene today after yesterday’s electric mile by The Gurkha.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: He previews the Irish 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas, which will be run on Saturday and Sunday at the Curragh.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Last-chance saloon. The final Derby and Oaks trials at the two-day Goodwood meeting.
NEXT WEEK: Daqman’s winning systems and See How They Ran guide to the Derby.
MEKHTAAL TRIAL JUST AS GOOD AS GURKHA’S
We always knew they would come. Like aliens from Planet Ballydoyle or from the Newmarket hinterland of godsend Gosden, several of so many unknowns in the big yards would appear from the wetlands of winter to shock in the trials and mock punters foolish enough to bet too early on the Derby.
To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, when he combined the wisdom of politicians through the ages: there were known unknowns but what we didn’t know about were the unknown unknowns.
The Gurkha Plenty of Irish punters seemed to know that he would win but that he’d ‘do a Frankel’ and streak away with the French 2,000 Guineas was not known, nor scarcely believed.. even afterwards.
What did he beat? He beat by 5½l a colt – First Selection – who had been 8½l off Galileo Gold in the Newmarket Guineas.
As I warned, the French horses with only two runs on their CV – Zarak, Crazy Horse, Zelzal – didn’t have the experience and the nearest they got was sixth.
However, that huge negative also applied to The Gurkha (two runs, one maiden win) but it didn’t stop him.
Nothing in the field could stop him. I would take him on my list for Royal Ascot (St James’s Palace Stakes) but not for the Derby.
Mekhtaal Earlier yesterday at Deauville, this one did a similar demolition job in the Prix Hocquart, making all the running but over further (1m 2f), with one tenuous line of collateral form between the two races.
Royal Julius, 6½l third, had been 1¼l behind Dicton in a Group-3 trial in April. Dicton was a nose off First Selection, when third in the Guineas later on yesterday, about 5¾l inferior to The Gurkha, strictly on the book.
That suggests there is very little between Mekhtaal and The Gurkha, but with the Sea The Stars colt, Mekhtaal, the one bred to do better over middle distances. I’d like to see him in the Eclipse.
What is worrying about both results is that two races of the calibre of the Hocquart and the French Guineas were both won by the proverbial mile from the front. It says something about the track; that we maybe shouldn’t take the results literally.
Wings Of Desire What about the Dante? Wings Of Desire is, for me, what John Gosden thought in the first place: a potential King Edward V11 winner (Group 2), a race known as the ‘Ascot Derby.’
Midterm’s fast-track to the top all went to his head at York (slow away; pulled the energy out of himself). He disliked the firm ground, which also seems to knock Royal Ascot on the head.
What will the effect of the Dante be on Wings of Desire’s even faster rise to the top? He was doing only half-speed work in March, and came to the race off the back of a Wolver AW win!
Just like Midterm, he deceived them at home, so laid-back is he on the gallops. Does that also mean he has been developing a mind of his own like Midterm?
With Foundation hampered in the Dante, I would not be surprised if the form-book didn’t worked out remarkably well. Just look at the Royal Lodge result of last September, and compare it with the Dante, taking out the winner.
* ROYAL LODGE: 1 Foundation ¾l; 2 Deauville 2¼l; 3 Muntazah.
* DANTE: 2 Deauville, 1½l; 3 Foundation (hampered), 2¾l; 4 Muntazah.
How good is the overall form? Later last year, Deauville was 2¼l behind Foundation, and splitting them – threeparts of a length in front of Deauville – was Port Douglas.
Port Douglas gave 4lb and nearly upset the plan to educate USA Army Ranger in the Chester Vase, running him close right to the line.
Humphrey Bogart, who was fourth in the Royal Lodge, was giving 5lb when beaten only a neck by So Mi Dar in the Epsom Derby Trial, with the BETDAQ Dee Stakes winner, Viren’s Army, in third.
It all works out as very good form. But ‘all of a heap’ as the old touts used to report from the gallops (Anything special in that gallop? ‘Nah; they finished all of a heap.’)
Will Wings Of Desire continue his boggling trajectory to the top (it’s almost vertical!)? Can the hampered Foundation reverse the form? Which horse will go on from the Chester Vase? US Army Ranger, Port Douglas.. or both?
Aidan O’Brien could not hide his excitement after US Army Ranger’s Vase; nor could John Gosden disguise the thrill of such a rapid rise as we saw in Wings Of Desire.
Then came yesterday’s stunning Gurkha rampage, well raked over by the Press, and Mektaal’s similar romp on the Hocquart, which was largely overlooked.
GERMAN GUINEAS ON KNIFE EDGE FOR BOTTI
1.50 Deauville (Prix Saint-Alary) This race threw up magical winners in the Seventies: Dahlia, Nobiliary, Three Troikas. Now the level is at best represented by French Oaks winner Stacelita (2009).
Jean-Claude Rouget (first and second in the Hocquart and first and third in the Pouliches) is obviously not only the man in form but also the man with a French stable full of three-year-olds in depth. So I shall expect Jemayel to run a big race.
The form of Camprock has been boosted and, though blinkers at Group-1 level are anathema to me, I have to rrepect Hawksmoor for the Galileo Gold combo of Hugo Palmer and Frankie Dettori.
2.10 and 2.40 Brighton Clive Cox and Adam Kirby who are 2-2 this season provide your Daq Multiples banker in Mister Sunshine (2.40)
Rae Guest won a big sprint at the weekend and he has Silvestre De Sousa aboard Dominance (2.10) here.
2.20 Deauville (Prix de St Georges): The trainers in form here are Freddy Head and Ian Williams, trying to win it for England the second year running (after Michael Dods in 2015) – it would be four out of six – with Chester scorer Sir Maximilian.
Head’s Ride Like Wind could turn around Maisons form with Finsbury Square but that one was trounced six lengths by Signs Of Blessing on the last day.
Signs Of Blessing and Sir Maximilian are both well entered up, including for the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.
4.05 Cologne (German 2,000 Guineas) The Classic jigsaw that won’t fit together has given us some corner pieces on which to build.
Lingfield Derby Trial winner, Humphrey Bogart (see my Derby review above) is among them. In one of the races which makes him a benchmark, he split Knife Edge and 2,000 Guineas fifth, Kentuckyconnection.
That makes Knife Edge a fair bet in today’s German Guineas, which trainer Marco Botti won with Excelebration in the year of Frankel.
6.30 Windsor It seems a good idea to stick with Mick Channon and Silvestre De Sousa while they are scoring together, and Jule In The Crown has a Group-1 entry.
They might have won earlier at Brighton (3.15) with Jaywalker but I wss mindful that Clive Cox (Quintus Cerialis) and Stuart Williams (Upavon) do particularly well at Brighton in those sorts of races.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 4pts win JEMAYEL (1.50 Deauville)
BET 6pts win DOMINANCE (2.10 Brighton)
BET 6pts win SIGNS OF BLESSING (2.20 Deauville)
BET 8pts win (nap) KNIFE EDGE (4.05 Cologne)
BET 6pts win JULE IN THE CROWN (6.30 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Dominance (2.10 Brighton), Mister Sunshine (2.40 Brighton), Jule In The Crown (6.30 Windsor)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
