BEST-BET KATE CRASHES OUT: Daqman’s week of winning naps (four out of five) ended in frustration when his Naas best bet, Augusta Kate (11-4 under Ruby Walsh), crashed at the last as she challenged the odds-on Death Duty. Daqman’s reaction? ‘Unprintable!’
IMPROVERS FOR THE FESTIVAL: Today he continues his ratings probe into the improvers for the Cheltenham Festival races featured in the BETDAQ ante-post lists (see Daqman Archive for last Wednesday and Thursday). Today it’s the turn of the Champion Stakes.
DAQMAN TODAY: Daqman has fancies from all three British meetings today including a strong fancy for a smart novice chaser dropping in class and an unexposed stayer on the all-weather/
10.0 FOX NORTON LOOKS CHAMPION
One of the best Cheltenham trials. That’s the Clarence House Stakes at Ascot on January 21, from which the winners have done the Champion Chase double three times in the last four years.
In fact, you could say they’ve won the last four Cheltenham titles, because the 2013 Ascot winner came back last year to repeat his earlier Champion Chase win at the age of 10.
Sprinter Sacre (2013 and 2016) was following on another comeback winner, Moscow Flyer (2003 and then 2005 when aged 11).
Just those two have landed the title for horses of a double-figure age in 18 years; so previous winners only if they’re that old, which props the door ajar for Sire De Grugy and Dodging Bullets in March, though there are very strong youngsters improving past them.
Only one horse has won the Clarence House over the age of eight since 2001, which reduces this year’s field to a match between Altior and Un de Sceaux.
Here are the Champion Chase ratings for the older horses quoted in the BETDAQ ante-post orange:
169 Un De Sceaux (aged 9; down 3lb since second in the 2016 Champion)
166 Sire De Grugy (now 11; just a pound or two variation in last 10 starts)
165 God’s Own (9; more or less static in last four starts)
160 Special Tiara (10; third last two years: dropped 8lb to 2015 level)
157 Dodging Bullets (9; has crashed 171>157 in the ratings)
The comparative youngsters taking them on are already up there, challenging the best of the ratings:
169 Douvan (aged 7; rating static for last three wins)
167 Fox Norton (7; up 21lb for hat-trick at Cheltenham)
163 Ar Mad (7; only fourth in the Tingle Creek but put up 6lb)
Fox Norton, hovering just below 10.0 on BETDAQ, is yet another big improver trained by Colin Tizzard (switched from Neil Mulholland); only third to Douvan in the Arkle in March but rated just 145 then. Now a 167 horse, breathing down Douvan’s neck.
The Tizzard stable, which continued its big-race reign by taking the Tolworth with Finian’s Oscar on Saturday, completed a double of more than 30-1 across the cards yesterday, with Bears Rails at Fontwell and Allchilledout at Chepstow 20 minutes later.
DONCASTER: LAKE CAN HAMMER THEM
1.30 Doncaster Hammersly Lake has been keeping some lofty company over fences lately and should appreciate this drop in class. He was doing his best work at the finish last time under this rider and looks capable of taking this despite giving weight to all of his rivals. At 2.36 on BETDAQ there is no need to complicate the matter and Hammersly Lake is selected.
3.45 Doncaster A tight and competitive contest despite there only being 4 runners, Cajun Fiddle is respected but she has to concede a lot of weight to fellow handicap debutant Beyond Measure. She was an improved second over a slightly shorter trip last time and looks capable of a big run from an opening mark of 106. Her trainer thought her good enough to contest a listed and Grade 2 bumper last season which would suggest she works better than a low grade handicapper at home. At 4.1 on BETDAQ she is worth a chance to prove that today.
LINGFIELD: TRIP THE KEY TO GRAY
2.15 Lingfield Aurora Gray has plenty of stamina in her pedigree and seemed to really appreciate the step up in trip last time. She has only been given 5lbs for that win and looks capable of going in again with George Baker in the plate. The 2.4 available on BETDAQ looks more than fair about a filly with the scope to progress further over this trip.
2.50 Lingfield Summer Icon was good enough to take a Newmarket maiden in May and has been running with credit on both starts since a break. With those all-weather runs under her belt she could be ready to strike now. Trainer Mick Channon went close at Lingfield on Saturday and has a 17% strike rate with jockey George Baker. The 5.1 available on BETDAQ looks worth a punt.
WOLVERHAMPTON: OSBORNE CHANNEL REVIVAL
3.35 Wolverhampton Our Channel was massively out of form for William Haggas on his final three starts but appeared to show some spark on his debut for Jamie Osborne last time. If he continues in that vein he has a huge chance on these terms. He is previously a multiple winner on the all-weather over a trip slightly further than this and Timmy Murphy may be the man to coax his ability out. The 3.25 available on BETDAQ looks too big for a horse with his ability.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9pts to win HAMMERSLY LAKE (nap) Doncaster 1.30
BET 6pts to win AURORA GRAY Lingfield 2.15
BET 5pts win SUMMER ICON Lingfield 2.50
BET 5pts win OUR CHANNEL Wolverhampton 3.35
BET 7pts win BEYOND MEASURE Doncaster 3.45
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