15.0 STRIKE IN BIG-ODDS SEQUENCE: Daqman’s done it again! He made it 16 days with a winner from the last 18 with a real titan at The Curragh yesterday: 15.0 BETDAQ offer Tithonus (WON 12-1), storming winner of the sprint handicap.
THE BENEFIT OF BETDAQ BETTING: Here are six of the hottest winning hits in those 16 days, which clearly reveal the benefit of BETDAQ betting:
WON 25.0 Brando (11-1 SP)
WON 20-1 Classic Seniority
WON 15.0 Tithonus (12-1 SP)
WON 12.5 Secret Number (6-1 SP)
WON 10-1 Annie Irish
WON 10-1 Captain Colby (6-1 SP)
FRENCH D-DAY FOR CHAMPION COLT: The Arc De Triomphe scene was rocked this morning by the defection of one of the favourites, the unbeaten La Cressonniere. That should change minds and hearts at the Rouget stable in France, says Daqman. Their champion colt must surely run instead.
ALMANZOR MUST GO TO THE ARC NOW
I more than ever think Almanzor should, and will, go for the Arc. Today’s defection of stablemate La Cressonniere through injury determines it. The Arc is worth €5 million against €1.5 million for the Champion Stakes at Newmarket, the colt’s current target.
Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has trained 19 Group winners this year; eight of them have been Group 1. And, with those two, he has both king colt and queen filly in his home country, ruling the 2016 Classic generation.
The master trainer from Pau, the Aidan O’Brien of France, has won almost everything in 22 years from the American Derby to the Coronation Stakes, including two French Derbys, four French Oaks, four French 1,000 Guineas. La Cressonnierre will be back to add to his haul.
But Rouget has never won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He’s trying to do the right thing by his colt (which he part-owns) but ringing in his ears will be the words of Christophe Soumillon as he got off Almanzor after the Irish Champion Stakes.
‘If ever a colt deserved his chance in the Arc, it is this one. If you don’t go to the Arc with him, you’ll never go to the Arc.
‘He is one of the best I have ever ridden, the way he accelerated off a strong pace. It was a really tough Champion Stakes’. Found was second, Minding third; the English Derby winner, Harzand, only eighth.
Rouget goes from the headache all trainers would love to have – which of his two three-year-old champions to run at Chantilly on Sunday – to a singular choice: should Almanzor step up the two furlongs?
ALMANZOR: Seven wins out of nine. Three in a row as a two-year-old, four in a row this season, among them the French Derby and the Irish Champion Stakes.
Almanzor beat Ballydoyle super-fillies Found and Minding at Leopardstown, ‘an incredible high; the horse was unbelievable’ (quote unquote M Rouget).
Rouget said his first thought was the Champion Stakes at Ascot two weeks later for a colt whose sire has achieved only an 8.8 average winning distance with his progeny.
But the sire of eight-wins-in-a-row La Cressonniere has an even shorter winning average for his sons and daughters of only 8.4f.
La Cressonniere won the French 1,000 Guineas, beating subsequent Group-1 winner Qemah, and she won the French Oaks (1m 2f) from the Vermeille winner, Left Hand. Ideal for the Newmarket Champion Stakes, don’t you think!
D-Day is tomorrow for final work-outs for all Arc runners, including Harzand and Postponed who defends Golden Horn’s hold on the Arc trophy.
Admitting to the taste of schadenfreude in his cornflakes at La Cressonniere’s setback will be Roger Varian, trainer of Arc favourite Postponed, whose King George last year was the start of six consecutive successes.
But the French will be aware that Postponed had a spell off with the virus in Varian’s yard and missed the 2016 King George before returning to win the International at York.
And that, if he won the Arc at the age of five, Postponed would be only the third winner of that age in nearly 40 years after Tony Bin (1988) and Marienbard (2001).
The Champion Stakes, won last year by Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock, has already gone to Jean-Claude Rouget, through Literato (2007). Redirecting Almanzor to the Arc would be the gamble of his entire career in training. But racing is a gamble. And there’s only one Arc.
VARIAN DOUBLE ON CARDS AT BATH
2.00 Newton Abbot and 3.50 Hamilton Connections of the Colin Tizzard yard expect to celebrate the news of his stable boost by taking the opener at Newton with his only runner of the day, Ivor’s Queen. One for your Daq Multiples.
Colin, whom I’ve known since he started working his way (with the accent on work), to the top of the tree and £1.25m in prizemoney last season, has some illustrious new stablemates in his recently completed more modern barns – 15 from the retiring Colm Murphy – for the yard that made stars of Cue Card and Thistlecrack.
In fact, it’s going to be hard to find a decent price all day, with Hamilton cutting up even further in the mud. So here’s another for the Daq Multiples.
I shall punt 4.1 BETDAQ offer Scrutineer to catch Danzeno, who is devilish hard to win with. Scrutineer has been two lengths behind his now odds-on rival in meetings at Chester and York. I think the heavy going will turn around the form.
3.10 Bath Roger Varian, who has a 22% strike rate for first-timers in handicaps, has applied (or snipped off) several aids to help Daily News’ launch into handicaps today.
As well as the gelding op, Daily News has first-time blinds. Varian is a dab hand with the blinkers; his overall strike rate rises to 26% from 20% when he applies them.
He has a matching 26% strike rate on today’s course at Bath, where he also saddles Maazel (4.10). With BETDAQ offers of 5.3 Daily News this morning, it certainly seems to be a case for playing the percentages all round!
4.10 Bath Maazel was red hot this morning at even money for his race, after improving all season. I’ll bet that Varian gets at least one winner by backing Daily News with a saver Maazel, and a small-stakes double the two, just in case both of them score.
AMBER LIGHT WITH LEGACY WORRY
5.40 Bath Standing dish at Bath, Catalinas Diamond, is 5lb lower than when he won the race last year but has been placed only twice in nine starts on the track since.
Rain should help Jaganory, hampered in his run when beaten half a length over CD only two weeks back, but he has a poor strike rate.
Perhaps a stronger pointer on the course in the last fortnight was Go Amber Go’s close fourth two grades higher when tried in a tongue-tie. Despite that cracking effort, he has been dropped a pound.
Contrast that climb in class with Secretfact’s: he has to swallow a 13lb rise for winning a grade lower than today’s, also around a fortnight go, albeit he should improve as a three-year-old.
Another second-season animal David’s Beauty has also won only in class 6, likes cut in the ground and has not been badly treated by the handicapper.
Most tipsters today are shouting for a low draw but it may be significant that Go Amber Go (a tasty 10.5 this morning) comes out of stall 13, the exact same (tautology rules, ok) as when she beat Captain Ryan, Dusty Blue and Catalina’s Diamond in July.
The danger may be Times Legacy (8.0), with Jim Crowley booked by Peter Chapple-Hyam, who is currently on three wins from five.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 5pts win DAILY NEWS (3.10 Bath) and 5pts win (stakes saver) MAAZEL (4.10 Bath) plus 1pt win double the two
BET 6pts win (nap) SCRUTINEER (3.50 Hamilton)
BET 4pts win TIMES LEGACY, and 2pts win and place GO AMBER GO (5.40 Bath)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Ivor’s Queen (2.00 Newton Abbot), Scrutineer (3.50 Hamilton), Maazel (4.10 Bath)
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