IMPERIAL TIPPING BY DAQMAN FOR TWO OUT OF TWO AT CARLISLE: Daqman won two races out of three yesterday, unbeaten at Carlisle (2-2) and landing his nap back to back with Saturday’s big-race star. Yesterday’s pair were:
✔️ WON 7-4 IMPERIAL AURA (nap)
✔️ WON 11-4 SOJOURN
THAT’S THREE WINNING NAPS OUT OF FOUR FOR 67 POINTS PROFIT: Imperial Aura gives him three winning naps out of four for a profit to 10-point level stakes of 67.50 over the four best bets:
✔️ WON 3-1 SORREL (Thursday nap)
✔️ WON 3-1 CYRNAME (FORTUNE COOKIE and Saturday nap)
✔️ WON 7-4 IMPERIAL AURA (Sunday nap)
DAQMAN TAKES A NAP BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING IN MELBOURNE: Today Daqman naps at Hereford and goes for a double at Kempton before he concentrates on tomorrow morning’s Melbourne Cup with an ABC analysis.
TIZZARD HAS A KAUTO STAR..
⚠️ HEADS UP I’ve found two in England this afternoon to try to fill the wallet for an overnight bet on tomorrow morning’s Melbourne Cup, which I’ve analysed horse by horse. Check them out on on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
⭕ 2.45 Hereford Colin Tizzard has been struggling for form and any flag-bearer must be followed. Here’s one with Adrian Heskin in the saddle, 3-7 for the stable and his only ride today.
An easy opportunity has been found for Kauto The King to follow up his run away win at Wincanton on his chasing debut just eight days ago.
⭕ 5.05 Kempton Lucander (Frankie Dettori) has already beaten Sky Defender and, though that one is better off at the weights, the younger Lucander should still be on the upgrade, while Sky Defender has been stuck on the same rating for his last eight starts, a loser every time with bridesmaid figures of 2423022.
STATS DUMP VAN DYCK ON CANVAS
Can they defy Flemington lore? Any other than Team Ballydoyle and, on the stats, you would dismiss their chances of tomorrow’s £2.3m Melbourne Cup prize from extremes of the draw..
Anthony Van Dyck has a triple dose of negatives. Galileos don’t win it: 26 sons of the prepotent sire have tried and failed.
Anthony ‘can’t’ win it with 9st 3lb; he has to turn back the clock 45 years. No winner has even breached the 9st barrier in the last decade. And he’s drawn 3, right in the rails trap of gates 1 to 3, which takes the special manoeuvring that brought a 100-1 winner in 2015.
Stablemate Tiger Moth needs to negotiate a wide draw in 23 and he has two other negatives in my ABC list. He is also a Galileo and he’s swerved the vital need to race at one of the big Aussie trial venues.
At least Anthony Van Dyck did that. He was a head second in the Caulfield Cup, which puts him front of the grid with the horse that beat him, Verry Elleegant, in pole position.
What Aidan has failed to do, son Joseph put right with Rekindling in 2017, and he has a double chance of preserving the Ballydoyle honour with Twilight Payment and Master Of Reality.
But remember that this race is a handicap over almost 2m, not a conditions race for middle-distance Groupies!
THE TWO-MILLION DOLLAR BABY..
⭕ 4 a.m. Tuesday, Flemington (Melbourne Cup)
A: Must have won a Group race (100%)
B: Must carry 8st 9lb or less (90%)
C: Must have prepped on top Aussie track (86%)
D: Must have run in the last month (86%)
X: NEGATIVE In stalls 1 to 3 and wide 22 to 24
X: NEGATIVE Over the age of six
X: NEGATIVE Galileo offspring have tried 26 times and failed
ABCD Dashing Willoughby
Andrew Balding’s Queens Vase winner of 2019, back to form with summer double at home but, weakened quickly, and well behind last of 18 in the Caulfield Cup, won by Verry Elleegant from Anthony Van Dyck, with 3 The Chosen One, 4 Prince Of Arran, 5 Finche, 6 Avilius, 8 Mustajeer, 12 Warning,
ABCD Finche
Giant chestnut. Before his Caulfield Cup fifth, he was also behind Verry Elleegant in a three-way photo for the Turnbull Stakes (1m 2f) at Flemington, with Warning sixth, Surprise Baby ninth, King Of Leogrance 13th. Fourth in the Cup in 2018 and just behind the places in last year’s race; stays all day.
ABCD King Of Leogrance
Threeparts of a length runner-up to Oceanex in May; 2lb better now. See Steel Prince.
ABCD Miami Bound
Had Oceanex third, 4 Etah James, 7 Sound when winning the Moonee Valley Cup on soft late last month. Ground query tomorrow.
ABCD Oceanex
Poor summer form until Moonee Valley Cup third (see Miami Bound).
ABCD Persan
Won a Group-3 handicap at Flemington last month from Sound and Steel Prince, despite being drawn in the one stall.
ABCD Russian Camelot
Beaten favourite, third to Sir Dragonet in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last month.
ABCD Surprise Baby
Fifth last year (see Finche, Prince Of Arran), only a length down and flying at the finish of a slow-run race. He’s my £2m baby!
ABCD The Chosen One
Won at Flemington in September (1m 2f). Headed 75 yards out in the Caulfield Cup (1m 4f) See Dashing Willoughby, Etah James.
ABCD Warning
Won the Victoria Derby here at Flemington in 2019 but third at best in nine runs since, and behind Verry Elleegant the last twice (see Dashing Willoughby and Finche).
ABCDx Ashrun
German-trained runner-up in the Kergorlay (1m 7f) at Deauville in August; won a Group-3 handicap at Flemington only three days ago from Sound. The Andreas Wohler stable took the Cup in 2014 but Ashrun has a very wide draw.
ABCDx Etah James
Lightly-raced eight-year-old mare, won the Sydney Cup (2m soft) in April by a head from The Chosen One.
ABCDxx Prince Of Arran
Third in last year’s Melbourne Cup, with 2 Master Of Reality, 5 Surprise Baby, 7 Finche, 9 Steel Prince, 12 Sound, 17 The Chosen One, 23 Mustajeer. Also third in 2018, with 5 Finche, 18 Sound, 22 Avilius.
ABCDx Steel Prince
Winner of the Geelong Cup last month, with 3 King Leogrance, 4 Ashrun. Earlier third to Persan at Flemington, just behind Sound. Wide draw.
ABxx Tiger Moth
Runner-up in the Irish Derby. Won Leopardstown Group 3 in September. No Aussie trial run and breeding against him in this race. Drawn very wide and carries a penalty.
ACD Avilius
Not won since last September: 11 successive defeats since that day. See Dashing Willoughby, Prince Of Arran. Prefers soft ground.
ACD Sir Dragonet
Chester Vase winner in 2019. Good second in Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) at the Curragh before leaving Aidan O’Brien. Took the Ladbrokes Cox Plate at Moonee Valley late last month with Russian Camelot third. Fast ground is against him tomorrow.
ACD Verry Elleegant
Revised weight puts him on course to dead-heat with Anthony Van Dyck after their one-two in the Caulfield Cup. Had won the Turnbull (1m 2f) here at Flemington from 3 Finche, 6 Warning, 9 Surprise Baby, 13 King Of Leogrance, 14 Oceanex.
ACDxxx Anthony Van Dyck
The 2019 Epsom Derby winner came back to form by beating Stradivarius in his Arc trial and running a head second in the Caulfield Cup (see Verry Elleegant). Not bred for tomorrow’s race.
ACDx Vow And Declare
Last year’s winner (see Prince Of Arran for the beaten horses) from stall 21. Loser six times since and goes for the double badly drawn in 4 tomorrow; blinkers tried now. The mare Makybe Diva won the race three times.
A Master Of Reality
Second last year, up with the slow pace, beaten only a head (see Prince Of Arran), but a big weight again tomorrow and black marks for absence since winning at Down Royal two months back, swerving the Aussie trials as he did last year.
Ax Twilight Payment
Slammed stablemate Master Of Reality eight lengths in the Curragh Cup in July and seems to be getting better with age. One of the few genuine stayers in the race, but poor finish in the Cup last year after leading half a mile out.
Bx Stratum Albion
Lonsdale Cup runner-up at York. Fast ground may be against him at age seven, but trained by Willie Mullins, a master with older horses.
CDxx Mustajeer
Badly drawn in 2. Finished 23 of 24 in the race last year from a low stall.
VERDICT: Surprise Baby, very lightly raced for his age, was the ‘moral’ last year, finishing like the proverbial train off a slow pace. Conditions are right today and he is drawn to take a back seat until springing his surprise late on. If Joseph O’Brien has him spot on, Master Of Reality must go close.
The brave mare Verry Elleegant keeps getting overlooked for this but I prefer her to Finche, who is a grinder. Sir Dragonet, who has a new lease of life for his move to Australia, could outgun the very Ballydoyle stable he has left for this.
ORDER IN: 1 Surprise Baby, 2 Sir Dragonet, 3 Master Of Reality, 4 Verry Eleegant, 5 Tiger Moth.
DAQMAN’S BETS (today)
DAQ MULTIPLES 2pts win double
2.45 Hereford (win 10, nap)
BET 6pts win KAUTO THE KING
5.05 Kempton (win 10)
BET 5pts win LUCANDER
DAQMAN’S BETS (tomorrow)
4 a.m Flemington
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50)
BET 6pts win SURPRISE BABY
BET 5pts win SIR DRAGONET
BET 2pts win MASTER OF REALITY
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