17-2 WINNER PUTS DAQMAN 90 POINTS UP: Daqman landed 17-2 winner Pass Muster at Musselburgh yesterday to go 90 points up from five days of profit. He leads in his challenge to Pricewise 18-3 this Flat season (57-15 overall) and they clash today in the Irish Grand National.
IRISH GRAND NATIONAL ABC GUIDE: The Easter Monday feature is massively competitive. Daqman tries to make sense of it with his stats-and-form ABC guide, based on the history of the race in the last decade:
A: Carried 10st 8lb or less and not rated higher than 136 (10 out of 10)
B: Two runs or less since December (9 out of 10)
C: Aged seven to 10 and no more than 10 chases (9 out of 10)
D: Won 3m plus under Rules (8 out of 10) or placed in this race
E: In the frame before at Fairyhouse (7 out of 10)
It’s not been hard to weigh up the winner. All 13 finishers in the Irish Grand National (5.00 Fairyhouse) last year carried 10st 9lb or less. The previous year it was the first nine. In 2011, the first 10. And so on for 14 years now.
Before that the barrier was broken by Bobbyjo and Commanche Court. Bobbyjo beat an Aintree Grand National winner and a Sandown Gold Cup winner into the places. It’s not that classy today.
And in Commanche Court’s year, the first five favourites were racing off 10st 13lb or higher, and the lightweights were mostly ‘rags’. Again, not so today.
The ground will help those who’d normally have just a few pounds too much, and another essential factor is that they come to this lightly raced in their year.
Shutthefrontdoor has had just the one run in 2014 – in a championship four-miler at Cheltenham – and has Barry Geraghty in the saddle.
Golden Wonder (28.0 on BETDAQ this morning), whose had this as his target ever since he won at Galway, and back-to-form Rich Revival tick all the boxes but, close up to them in my ABC Guide, are Gallant Oscar and Goonyella.
Galant Oscar made mincemeat of them in the Leinster National but the worry is the ground – he’s won only on soft – and the form of that race gives him something to find with Rich Revival.
Goonyella has a fine chance on his fifth in the Troytown but needs soft ground and, on the lines he represents through hunter-chase form, Tammys Hill would have won that Troytown.
Has Tammy recovered from his exertions in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham? If so, he’s a handicap snip, and will appreicate the sound surface.
ABCDE Golden Wonder
Won the beginners’ chase at Galway on heavy, showing ‘substantial reserves of stamina’ (Racing Post).
‘He’s going to be an out-and-out stayer.’
The second horse home that day won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival and the third has scored twice since. All questions have been answered, including the ground, though he is a little bit inexperienced.
ABCDE Rich Revival
Won Fairyhouse Beginners’ Chase followed by the Leinster National last Spring. Lost his way after, including pulled up this race a year ago, but encouraging over hurdles recently. Small stable in good form but the ground is a worry.
ABCD Gallant Oscar
This year’s Leinster National winner with some ‘flawless jumping’, beating Saoirse Dun, Los Amigos and Folsom Blue ‘without having to get serious’.
Though hiked 13lb for his trouble – 9lb worse with Saiorse Dun, 10lb with Los Amigos and 12lb with Folsom Blue – that gets him into this with a racing weight, though the form doesn’t work out as high class.
ABCD Goonyella
Hunter-chaser at only five and six years old, primed for this race last year but saddle slipped (trainer Dreaper blamed himself) and bounced straight back to win at the Punchestown Festival.
Fair runs when still only six in autumn-winter Troytown and Welsh Grand National before back to form in hurdles prep for this on the last day. But ground is a big worry.
ABCD Heaney
Back-to-back novice-chase wins in the late summer but rested after only fair efforts in Munster National (fifth) and Power Chase.
ABCD Sraid Padraig
Sixth last year’s Leinster National but big improvement on better ground, dropped back to 2m 1f, to beat Cause Of Causes at Fairyhouse in November with ‘exceptional jumping’ . Only eighth at Cheltenham (Byrne Group Plate) and doubt about the trip.
ABCE Los Amigos (NON RUNNER)
Goonyella’s stablemate, broke his duck on this course in November and excellent second this year in Thyestes Chase (‘staying on; very safe jumping’) and third Leinster National (‘shade one-paced’) behind easy winner Gallant Oscar and 10lb better off now.
ABDE Alfie Sherrin
Cheltenham Festival winner on good ground before third in this Irish National (2012). Fourth in Kim Muir this time around at Cheltenham and dropped 7lb after only fair efforts since.
A hard horse to keep right, with only 20 Rules races for an 11 year-old, and just two successes in more than four years.
ABDE Jamsie Hall
Another 11-year-old, this time with a lot of steeplechase miles on the clock and just a veterans’ win at Aintree since June, 2012.
ABD Daring Article
Punchestown Chase winner (heavy) at last Spring’s festival when only seven and followed up there in December before narrow defeat in the Leopardstown Chase in January and fourth here in another Graded race since. Acts on any going.
ABD Toon River
Third to Roi Du Mee in the Imperial Call Chase at Cork, this time last year, and back to form in first-time hood in beginners’ chase at Gowran last month. Front-runner.
AB Saoirse Dun
Always thereabouts last Spring, third to Rich Revival in the Foxrock, second novice-chase final at Navan and Grade A at the Punchestown Festival. Runner-up Leinster National last month (see Gallant Oscar)
ACDE Folsom Blue
Won Punchestown Grand National Trial ‘like an old hand’ on heavy ground but only fourth at revised weights, giving more than a stone to the winner, Gallant Oscar, in the Leinster National.
ACDE The Westener Boy
Fell when joint favourite for the Thyestes Chase and, after a year off, returned to form only recently with an eye-catching hurdles prep for this.
AC Clar Na Mionn
In the frame in six Graded novice chases, travelling and jumping well and suggesting a stamina test is needed.
ADE Rogue Angel
Beat subsequent dual winner (but out of form) Touch The Eden in first-time blinkers, and better than bare form, seventh in NH Chase at Cheltenham (4m). But see Touch Of Eden.
ADE Tammys Hill
Hunter-chaser who won the Foxhunter at Cheltenham over the Grand National fences after third here at Fairyhouse to Aintree Fox Hunters’ winner, Warne. Needs a test of stamina but has never been seen in conditions races or handicaps.
A Mullaghjanoe River
Still only six and a lazy horse at home, so blinkered first time now and maybe one for another year, aged only six.
BCDE Home Farm
Third in this race last year (not a strong renewal) off 5lb lower mark when a novice running in his first handicap. Decent efforts in Graded races since, but off colour and missed the Aintree Grand National. Can he bounce back?
BCDE My Murphy
Won his first chase on today’s course and won Navan novice-chase final, giving lumps of weight to the placed horses when looking ‘every inch an Irish National horse’, according to the form book.
There are two snags: the ground has dried up on him and he must race on the outside or from the front, as he has to see daylight and won’t jump with horses in front of him.
BCDE Touch The Eden
Turned round 11-lengths December deafet by Rogue’s Angel (only fourth), when beating Letter Of Credit and Folson Blue at Limerick. But likes his own way up front.
BCD Cantlow
Good run of form up to 20f (second Grade 3) until fell behind Holywell at Cheltenham and needed hurdles confidence booster at Aintree,. Doubt about this trip.
BCD Shutthefrontdoor
Six out of seven bumpers and hurdles, and fourth 2013 Pertemps Final at Cheltenham. Back in the picture there after breathing op when close sixth (jumping errors) in 4m NH Chase at the festival.
BE Cause Of Causes
Second in three consecutive Graded races, including Power Chase and Kim Muir, costing him 17lb rise and example of his task is his 10lb worse with Sraid Padraig though beaten a nose by him on this course in November.
B Pendra
J P McManus owned noice-chase third at Cheltenham Festival. Doubt about this trip.
C Make A Track
Grade B chase winner at Limerick who could improve for the marathon distance.
DE Away We Go
5lb higher than when second in this last year before third in Sandown Gold Cup, but not seen since and 11-years-old now.
DE Lion Na Bearnai
Won this race in 2012 off 5lb lower mark but moderate success since in small-field race back on this course and not suited to the fences in the Grand National. He’s 12 now.
D Letter of Credit
Consistent in novice chases, including Graded second to Touch The Eden (allowed 4lb for two and a half lengths). First-time hooded as he doesn’t like other horses around him.
E Oscars Well
Placed in top-class novice events last year including Leopardstown Arkle and Punchestown Ryanair. Fell Tramore in January and modest hurdles efforts since.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except lays)
LAY 10pts ABSEIL (1.50 Yarmouth)
BET 4pts win MOLLY’S A DIVA (2.05 Chepstow)
BET 10pts win (nap) TOKYO JAVILEX (2.40 Chepstow)
BET 2.5pts win SURROUND SURROUND (3.55 Redcar)
LAY 10pts each EASTER SKY, LEGAL WAVES (4.30 Redcar)
BET 1.5pts win and place on each SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR and TAMMYS HILL, and 0.7pts win and place GOLDEN WONDER (5.00 Fairyhouse)
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