TODAY: MORE WINNING WAYS: Daqman continues his probe into ways of winning on BETDAQ from form analysis, with his assessment of races at Lingfield and Wolverhampton in which he searches for bets away from the front of the market. The nap is at Carlisle.
TOMORROW: BETTER BETTING: When is an offer too big? Why you can’t win with a one-off. Why should you be a betting snob? What’s your best race for winning money?
BETDAQ GIVES WINNERS A HEAD START
Know more than the rest. Following on from yesterday’s article, the number-one rule of betting is that you should not bet unless you have examined every runner in the race.
Layers rely on backers’ ignorance. Bookmakers make their money because punters haven’t got time, can’t be bothered – or don’t know how – to assess the form.
They also rely on punters choosing poor-quality races which are unlikely to run to form, because lower-class horses are simply not capable of it by their very nature (lack of a strong constitution).
The bookies would love to see whole racecards of class-4 handicaps of about 12-14 runners (three places only, notice) in which the horses are all well exposed to the handicapper and, therefore, weighted to run a 14-horse dead-heat!
Theoretically, over time, you’d get the winner once in 14 races, so each horse should be 13-1 true odds. In fact, the bookie will fix the odds by having most of them at much less than 13-1, some of them less than 5-1.
This is basically how he creates the overround against you (remember, you want a ‘round’ 100-100 level playing-field of 100 paid for every 100 bet) but he’ll be betting to something like 100-117.
He may be right to have some at reduced odds to guard against liabilities he can’t afford – or rather, doesn’t want to risk – and, as a punter, you have one task and one only, even on BETDAQ.
Is the offer the layer is making adequate for the risk or is he trying to have everything his own way? Too short and you’re not getting value; too big and he’s probably tempting you to back a dog.
We’ll look at that later and, when we do, we have to consider – particularly in jumps racing – the possibility that something untoward will happen (as it did to Winner Massagot yesterday), so you’ll have to build in a point at least for accidents). But today we’re going to examine the form of races.
SCALES SAY JUSTICE LOOKS THROWN IN
4.20 Wolverhampton This is a class 2, which gives us a healthy advantage over those betting at a lower level because, all things being equal, your selection should run to form.
How ‘equal’? Well, you need the horse fit and the trainer in form; the right trip and ground; the right pace; the right jockey; and – on the Flat – the right draw. Don’t want much do we!
Well, actually, we want these things only in comparison with the rest of the field.
If you find horses that tick the boxes where others have no qualifications at all on the day – not ‘equal’ to the task – then you will probably choose the winner ‘by default.’
But beware ‘question marks’ where you are not sure of the fitness, trip or going: you’ll have to extend the price you want about the others if you fear a ‘hidden horse.’
In fact, as you know from this column already, some ‘hidden horses’ could well be bets because of form that’s gone unrecognised or because of their potential at big offers.
FITNESS: That’s a worry for Fast Track, who’s not been seen for 156 days, and his previous successes have come only after a prep run. His stable is out of form (so Steelriver also has a black mark).
TRAINERFORM: Michael Easterby (Bosham) has been striking at 50% in the last fortnight (5-10) but another Yorkshire stable, that of Julie Camacho, hasn’t scored this year.
COURSE, TRIP and GOING: Eight of these have already won at Wolver, so know the track and the terrain. All bar Steelriver have won at the trip.
DRAW: This is a sprint, so much depends where the jockeys (in a field this size) decide to go and whether there is a seeming ‘hidden’ bias, as opposed to an obvious one (a bend, for instance).
I put some hard work in and discovered that, from all the CD winners in this, their results show that the low four are the best stalls to be in.
WEIGHT: Sprinters tend to take turns in winning. Why? Because they usually score from a specific ratings level, unless they are young improvers.
So the basic rule is: if they haven’t won this high in the handicap before, they are not likely to do so today unless dropped in class. (which we’ll come to in a minute).
Justice Good has never won a handicap but has twice run well this year when not fancied at 25-1 (watch the market) and was a Group horse last year. Boom The Groom scored at today’s mark at this time of year but at Lingfield.
Bosham has won four from five under claimer Nathan Evans but his overall ratings rise of 20lb means he also climbs the ranks: he’s gone from class 5, to 4 and 3 on the last day. Now he’s in class 2.
Bosham’s stablemate Hoofalong is trying to sneak under the radar with just a 6lb penalty for his recent success.
Dynamo Walt is badly drawn in 11 but likes a good gallop and the yard has had two winners in the last 10 days.
Seve won here in December but the revised weights force him up a grade. Zac Brown has moved from David Barron and is back to a winning mark. Royal Birth probably has too much to carry now.
VERDICT: Adam McLean’s claim takes Justice Good 17lb lower than the mark he’d achieved before racing in Group 3 in the early autumn. That’s that ‘class’ I promised to mention.
His two recent defeats when unfancied put him in the ‘hidden horse’ category. This bet is the beginning of a series, which I will explain tomorrow. We need about 8-1.
Justice Good was trading around 11.0 on BETDAQ but was down to 9.2 by 9.05 a.m., while writing this column. With David Elsworth horses, unless they are running in big-field, top-line handicaps, there’s not much point in betting each way. They win or they lose.
4.00 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Handicap) From a whole bunch of negatives here, it’s hard to see the light of a betting positive.
Morning-paper second favourite De Lesseps has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, well over my betting weir at 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
At the other end of the market, the favourite, Queen Aggie, makes her 11th attempt at Lingfield: her form there is 0400303203. Captain Revelation has already beaten her, giving a stone.
Trainers doing well include William Stone (but Diamond Lady prefers 6f, as does Jimmy’s Hall) and Conor Dore (Fleckerl) but Richard Fahey is in terrific form: figures of 1121102.
Since Fahey stepped Johnny B Goode up from 6f, his form has been 2322. With the stable on the crest of a wave, and so many negatives in the race, I can’t see this bridesmaid being kicked out of a place at 6.0 in an eight-runner race.
Perfect win-and-place punt, hoping she gets the bouquet against these ugly sisters but with full win insurance from the place.
THE NAP: With Courtown Oscar and Friendly Royal hiked in the weights, and Warrantor a flaky sort, Alto des Mottes (4.05 at Carlisle; 3.65 on BETDAQ) could gain compensation over this shorter trip for a great effort, second in the North Yorkshire Grand National.
Has had more than a month to recover and could shake off this field in the mud.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 6pts win (nap) ALTO DES MOTTES (3.05 Carlisle)
BET 5pts win JUSTICE GOOD (4.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 4pts win and place JOHNNY BE GOODE (4.00 Lingfield)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
