40-1 ‘FOLLY’ A FABULOUS WINNER FOR DARING DAQMAN: Daredevil Daqman, who laid the Grand National favourite for a place, even opposing Silviniaco Conti at Aintree, landed a huge outsider yesterday, Forresters Folly (WON 40-1), some compensation for a 23.0 runner-up in the National.
80.0 WIN-AND-PLACE BET AT KELSO TODAY: True to style, Daqman goes in again at massive odds today, this time at a totally friendless 80.0. For the inside story of Daqman’s wise follies, now read on.
Maybe my big winner is down to the Auroras Encore factor. If I hadn’t been reminded that horses at huge odds can win races, I might have put a line through Forresters Folly yesterday.
I thought the opening maiden at Ascot was a two-horse race: I thought both my selections would be around the 3-1 mark. I thought wrong.
Nicky Henderson’s Courtesy Call was the expected price but there were offers at over 40-1 and more for ‘Forresters’. My immediate reaction was to nap Courtesy Call on the grounds that the main opposition had ‘gone’; it was now folly to back the Alan King horse.
But I reminded myself: this is BETDAQ; you can so often get massive offers. It was a maiden and trading would not be as strong, as in a race of exposed horses.
But it was still very hard to believe the price, for these reasons alone: Alan King had won the race for the last two years; Forresters Folly was third in it last year.
Even if they push it to the perimeter of their final calculations, some professional punters often ‘leave a pound’ on a horse they know is speculative but they also know is ‘the wrong price.’ I’m glad I went along with that notion.
’Pricing up’ – not what is called the ‘betting forecast’ in the trade paper – should be your assessment of what price a horse should be, based on your personal studies.
What the offers really are, and where you think the odds vary because of hype or popular appeal, are the developing stages of assessing the market.
Too often there is a tricky one in the early morning. A horse you expected to be one of the favourites is on offer at 6-1. It’s that in-between position, where it is hard to decide: is the horse easy to back because it is not fancied that day or should you ‘get on’, expecting it to reduce in price?
The answer is to study the markets, study the outcomes, study the stable, study the form. It is NOT folly to be wise, before or after the event, when you’re putting your money on your judgment. It is never bliss to be ignorant.
While we are on the subject, I retract nothing from my statement that we now need to look for a quality horse in the Grand National.
After all, Auroras Encore had won a Listed chase, and was beaten only head in the Scottish Grand National; in fact, finished in the first five in three Graded races.
I just might – you just might – have ‘left a pound’ on him. But had we known that the owner was on holiday in Crete and had ‘almost forgotten about the race’ (quote unquote today’s papers), we really would have gone through its name with that proverbial blue pencil. Maybe ignorance is bliss after all.
We now face the long journey to the Newmarket Craven meeting, with only spasmodic Flat meetings, peaks and troughs of quality in Ireland, and of course on AW.
Those of you still wondering about, and totally irritated by, this time of ‘phoney war’ between punters and bookies are not appeased by the reasons: bloodstock sales, stable open days, the mobility of Easter, the rigidity in the calendar of the main events, like Newmarket, and the need by trainers to get some sun on the backs of young first and second season animals.
You could add several more factors, maybe even up to Factor 50, the ultimate blocker that filters the thrills of racing: there isn’t the money around these days!
Incidentally, there was another ‘shock’ 40-1 winner at this time last year, on today’s Kelso card, in fact: a horse (almost) called ‘surprise’, Suprise Vendor, winner of the conditionals’ race (2.30) at a huge price for a nine-runner field (there are nine again today).
Suprise Vendor had one thing in common with Auroras Encore and Forresters Folly: all loved the change to good ground. This factor alone often produces false prices for horses, ‘false’ meaning too big but also ‘false’ meaning a horse is one of the favourites despite his preference for soft-heavy terrain.
So we are not only looking for outsiders too big in the market but also for offers too short about horses that we can lay.
The surprise ‘Vendor’ reappears at the same meeting this afternoon, but in a chase (3.30); so far his jumping has let him down over the bigger obstacles, even on a sound surface, though he was clear when coming down at the second last at Catterick two runs back and he clearly feels at home at Kelso.
What interests me about the Irish raider, Deputy Consort (7.8 on BETDAQ this morning), is that his last-day winning jockey, Andrew Lynch, a top man in Ireland, has come over with him.
The trainer also runs Bahati Boy (3.00), who has so hated his two Rules runs on heavy ground at home that he’s pulled up both times. That’s why he’s 80.0 on BETDAQ, as I write, 13.5 for a place.
They say lightning can strike twice so I’ll ‘leave a pound’ on Bahati Boy, who just might – 80 x maybe – be transformed by better ground and a senior rider of Lynch’s known ability.
Like a jump jockey waiting for a fall to ‘get it over with’, I’ll knock myself off the 40-1 Forresters Folly pedestal. It will cost me only 0.50 points on BETDAQ. Then I can stop believing that it’s quite so easy and get on with the game.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.25pts win and place BAHATI BOY (3.00 Kelso)
BET 7pts win YEAGER (3.20 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win SUPRISE VENDOR and 2.9pts win DEPUTY CONSORT (3.30 Kelso)
BET 0.5pts win and place TOP BILLING (4.00 Kelso)
BET 8pts win (nap) BUYWISE (4.30 Kelso)
BET 3.8pts win ROCK SONG (5.10 Wolverhampton)
BET 7.6pts win MY FLORA and 4.4pts win (stakes saver) OVERYOU (5.30 Kelso)
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