DIEGO GAMBLE LANDED: YOU’VE GOT TO HAND IT TO BETDAQ: More huge margins for BETDAQ punters were revealed in gambles on Daqman’s successful selections yesterday: 5.0 about the 11-8 winner of the Sussex Champion Hurdle and, at the Fairyhouse festival, 8.0 a 4-1 ace, which Daqman marked as a back-and-lay bet. He also named the runner-up, and the pair came 10 lengths clear of their field in the novice-hurdle championship final.
WON 11-8 DIEGO DU CHARMIL champion hurdle (from 5.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 4-1 SKY ACE novice final (back and lay at 8.0; Gauloise 2nd 5-1)
MORE BIG BETTING VALUE ON IRISH GRAND NATIONAL DAY: Out of all the form and facts, stats and stable tips, Daqman ultimately picks three more BETDAQ-value bets for the Irish Grand National today at 12.5, 19.0 and 42.0 this morning. Headlines:
🔹 ROBIN BIG HITTER FOR RACHAEL
🔹 5.5 AMBASSADOR MUCH TOO BIG
🔹 IT’S WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED
🔹 FLAT BEST IS TO HOLD THE FORT
ROBIN BIG HITTER FOR RACHAEL
⭕ 5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National) When the J P McManus colours went past 1, 2 and 3, in the Leinster National three weeks back, they were three of the top 10 in my stats ABC guide to today’s Irish National. See Daqman Archive last two days.
The winner, Scoir Mear, had a solid reputation in big races – third in the Troytown, fifth in the Porterstown – so brought good form to the table in the that day though was almost cooked in the run to the line, just as the Porterstown over today’s Fairyhouse CD had proved too far for him.
Runner-up Ten Ten, a big eight-year-old (Scoir Mear is 11), is just now reaching his potential, and the third horse, Fitzhenry, was returning to the kind of form which saw him third, then second in the big Christmas chase at Leopardstown.
Fitzhenry gets a long way out of his ground, so Darragh O’Keeffe needs skill and judgement if he is to be the surprise packet of this big handicap. And that Leinster National result by jockey has me asking: where are they now? Well, Simon Torrens stands by Scoir Mear.
But Mark Walsh (Ten Ten) wants to be on Off You Go, another McManus-owned, while Rachael Blackmore gets off Fitzhenry in favour of Robin de Carlow, a mare who travels particularly well on better ground, and has plenty of class.
Her last success was the scalp of subsequent Champion Chase winner, Put The Kettle On, in a novice event at Grade -3 level. She’s had a long absence but has won every one of four races when returning fresh to the track after a break.
I’ve watched some of her races, and she jumps extremely well and has a cruising speed which could get her into the action on a soundish surface.
Off You Go has speed (dual winner of the Ladbrokes Hurdle) and stamina (dam closely related to Irish National winner Shutthefrontdoor.
My guide threw up Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred, first and second in the Thyestes. Of the pair, it was Run Wild Fred who looked more the out-and-out stayer and has been kept for this race since then.
I could fancy Sempo but Joseph O’Brien has a long string of losers to his name right now; two strings in fact: 21 days without a Jumps win; 23 on the Flat.
BETDAQ value and DAQMAN order in: 19.0 Robin de Carlow, 12.5 Run Wild Fred, 42.0 Off You Go
5.5 AMBASSADOR MUCH TOO BIG
⭕ 2.10 Plumpton Harry Skelton could take over the lead in the English Jumps jockeys title race, with nine rides to Brian Hughes three in the next two days.
Hughes wakes up this morning with his lead extended to three over Skelton (134-131), but Skelton is showing much the better strike rate at 23% and has bags more rides before the Grand National meeting, 11 to the champion’s three.
You can follow his title bid in SIX consecutive races, four of them forecast favourites and all for brother Dan, at Plumpton this afternoon before FIVE at Exeter tomorrow.
That’s while leader and champion, Hughes, restricts himself to three at Chepstow today, then – unless he gets a spare – no more until Aintree starts on Thursday.
I fancy the Skeltons’ Ambassador to give 7lb to Casa Loupi, who probably needs rain.
Beaten only a length by Tritonic sounds pretty good but the gap widened to 10 lengths in the Adonis on drier ground at Kempton; then Tritonic let the form down with a disappointing effort at Cheltenham.
Lays Logic I’m opposing Casa Loupi at 1.64 in the BETDAQ green and taking 5.5 Ambassador in the orange, an Easter Monday double whammy. I could have Easter egg on my face but the margin is much too generous.
IT’S WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED
⭕ 3.55 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Chase) After landing a gamble in the Sussex Champion Hurdle with Paul Nicholls’ Diego Du Chamil yesterday, I’m keen to do the double and get this Champion Chase in the bag. So is Paul!
Back from a gloomy Cheltenham, he’s now on a glowing 33% strike rate, Nicholls saddles Dr Sanderson, a CD winner on good ground here in the autumn.
Put away for a Spring campaign, he was prepped for this with a bumper run in February, looking a better horse physically for a long break.
Nicky Henderson has been out of form and Pistol Whipped was one of many from the yard to run poorly on his home track, Newbury, a month back. BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE value They think a lot of him and a betting move wouldn’t surprise, so I’m confident we can get around 4-1 Dr Sanderson.
Solomon Grey is the same price, offered at 5.1 in the BETDAQ orange this morning but I’m looking to Harry Skelton for that earlier winner.
FLAT BEST IS TO HOLD THE FORT
⭕ 3.25 Redcar Flat turf winners at this time of year are greatly about early-bird stables in form, and one of them is Ben Haslam’s, currently striking at one winner for every four runners.
His Newcastle beaten favourite Fortamour, who has won at Ascot (6f) and been placed at York (7f), is clearly one who is more at home in the wide open spaces of the Redcar straight. BETDAQ 6.6.
⭕ 4.35 Kempton (Queens Prize) Another trainer in form is Roger Varian. Jumps-stable offers for his four-year-old Postileo (2.8 taken) were resisted after he took command of a competitive staying handicap at Salisbury in the autumn.
Brother to an AW winner and related to a Group-3 scorer, he is unexposed against rivals in the market who are pretty much known and from stables out of form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win AMBASSADOR
3.25 Redcar (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win FORTAMOUR
3.55 Plumpton (win 20)
BET 5pts win DR SANDERSON
4.35 Kempton (win 20, nap)
BET 11pts win POSTILEO
5.00 Fairyhouse (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win RUN WILD FRED
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.75pts win ROBIN DE CARLOW
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.25pts win and 1.75pts place OFF YOU GO
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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