BOXING DAY KING GEORGE OF STAR NAMES: Racing unwraps its own big present today. The original day for Christmas boxes is a sensation on the box with a tremendous King George at Kempton. Daqman was determined to trap the winner with his Fortune Cookies but the star names are all there! Rely on BETDAQ offers, as ever, for a great day.
Headlines:
MIRANDA CAN WALK THE WALK..
McFABULOUS DAY FOR NICHOLLS
‘HILL’ IS BETTER THAN THE BEST
BRAVEMAN ON THE RIGHT TRACK
GO INTO OVERDRIVE FOR VALUE
14.0 LATE CHRISTMAS PRESENT?
WELSH NATIONAL TOMORROW: Daqman goes into a two-day racing feast, with the Welsh Grand National tomorrow, 5-3 up on Pricewise of the Racing Post.
MIRANDA CAN WALK THE WALK..
⭕ 12.45 Kempton (Long Walk Hurdle) Last year’s winner, Champ, and dual scorer Paisley Park (2018 and 2020) clash for the umpteenth time.
Paisley Park, whose success when the race was run at Ascot came on soft and heavy surfaces, was not at his best last Christmas but had his revenge on Champ in Cheltenham’s Cleeve Hurdle.
They returned from the summer break to do battle again at Newbury in November when Champ won a neck all out.
Thrilling though their contests have been, both are 10 now (11 in less than a week), I think we are overdue a ticket to the last picture show with a different ending at last.
My 2022 version has Miranda spoiling the party. As her trainer, Paul Nicholls said after she won at Kempton in a canter last month, there is no real star in this division and she gets 7lb from the duelling geldings.
FORTUNE COOKIE: Miranda (BETDAQ 5.4)
McFABULOUS DAY FOR NICHOLLS
⭕ 1.20 Kempton (Kauto Star Novices’ Chase) Paul Nicholls won this last year with Bravemansgame, potential star of the King George in 70 minutes’ time.
Bravemansgame was a six-year-old racing off 154, just a pound higher than stablemate McFabulous today and the same age as the yard’s seeming second-string, lightly-raced Gelino Bello, who is expected to do better in the Spring.
McFabulous finished clear of Thyme Hill at Newbury in November, and Gelino Bello, a Grade-1 hurdler, jumped to the right in landing a double over fences, so just had to come here to continue his experience.
Six-year-olds are 5-7 in this and that double has him only 7lb behind McFabulous on official ratings.
Galia Des Lieaux made a good start over fences and gets the 7lb mares’ allowance but was inferior over hurdles to all bar Mortlach in this line-up.
With 16 Ditcheat runners today, at Kempton, Wincanton and Huntingdon, I’m reckoning on a Nicholls’ six hit at least.
Betdaq Betting Exchange McFabulous 2.88
‘HILL’ IS BETTER THAN THE BEST
⭕ 1.55 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Nicky Henderson has trained 10 winners of this, including doubles by Binocular and Epatante, who is back for more, attempting to be only the second to score over the age of seven in 22 seasons.
Sceau Royal would be the first 10-year-old winner in the history of the race but the form fact that finally puts this race to bed and sets it on a pedestal is this.
Never mind the Christmas Hurdle, Constitution Hill has the highest rating of any Champion Hurdler in recent history and is a stone and 5lb ahead of Epatante today and exactly a stone up on her 2020 championship performance.
BRAVEMAN ON THE RIGHT TRACK
⭕ 2.30 Kempton (King George V1 Chase) A shock result in three of the last four years, with winners at 12-1, 20-1 and 28-1, including Frodon who would be only the second winner of a double-figure age in 20 years, Kauto Star (2011) the exception that proves the rule.
Five-time-winner Kauto Star first won it at six, same age as the stable’s Hitman today.
But Hitman has stamina to prove and his progress has slowed, rated 160 or so for a fifth consecutive race today, still waiting for a Graded strike.
He is 10lb behind super-progressive stablemate Bravemansgame, who is up 15lb after five wins out of six, including the Kauto Star novices test at this meeting last year.
‘Brave Man’ himself is still 6lb short of the six out of seven in the dramatic 42lb hike to stardom of L’Homme Presse.
Ratings vote to him but track vote to Bravemansgame, with L’Homme Presse at his best on the hill-climbs of Sandown and Cheltenham.
They have already met but when both had had enough for the season behind Ahoy Senor at Aintree, but that one had been well beaten by L’Homme Presse at Cheltenham and was out of sight when ‘Brave Man’ romped away with the Charlie Hall at Wetherby in October.
If it’s been raining at Kempton all Christmas Day, the dual Peter Marsh winner, who scored on this Sunbury card two years ago, Royal Pagaille can reach the frame, maybe even as the bogey outsider of three of the last four seasons.
FORTUNE COOKIES 1-2-3: Bravemansgame (BETDAQ 3.65), L’Homme Presse (3.7), Royal Pagaille (18.0).
GO INTO OVERDRIVE FOR VALUE
⭕ 1.35 Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick Chase) Shan Blue hammered Snow Leopardess 16 lengths on this course before the great grey won top staying chases including the Becher.
Shan Blue was winner and second three times in Graded chases, yet dropped into a handicap here off 148.
Into Overdrive won four in a row – one of them here – before running up to L’Homme Presse in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle. That could be King George form and he is overpriced in BETDAQ offers.
Sounds Russian has shot up the ranks 25lb this year, beating Aye Right at Kelso and fourth in Noble Yeats’ mighty Many Clouds romp at Aintree.
Chantry House unseated in that race but beat Shan Blue at Aintree as a novice after winning the Golden Miller at Cheltenham. However, has finished only once in last four starts so a big bounce back is needed.
BETDAQ value 3.45 Shan Blue, 6.8 Into Overdrive
14.0 LATE CHRISTMAS PRESENT?
⭕ 2.50 Market Rasen (Lincolnshire National) Dan Skelton has won this before but Jet Plane’s transformation, when stepped up in trip the last day, did not escape the handicapper: he’s up a stone.
Bangers And Cash also improved last time and trainer Ben Pauling is 3-9. Venetia Williams is also in form but Achille has disappointed too often and is 13 in a few days’ time.
Eclair De Guye was third in the London National for the second year running but has not much else to boast about.
Topofthecotswolds has never won this high in the handicap or on soft ground, and Danilo D’Airy must bounce back from a long break after twice failing to finish; the stable hasn’t had a winner for nearly a year.
A previous winner of this, Who’s In The Box, has also been badly out of form (P2-0FP), so first-time visor has to perform a miracle.
I prefer front-runner Cash To Ash, second in this last season, and Small Present, dropped 8lb in the last year, likes soft ground for a very capable trainer in a race like this.
BETDAQ value 5.7 Jet Plane, 14 Small Present, 28 Cash To Ash
DAQMAN’S BETS
Kempton Fortune Cookies
12.45 MIRANDA
2.30 BRAVEMANSGAME
2.30 L’HOMME PRESSE
2.30 ROYAL PAGAILLE
1.20 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 5.55pts win McFABULOUS
1.35 Wetherby (win 50, win 12)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8.25pts win INTO OVERDRIVE
BET 5pts win SHAN BLUE
2.50 Market Rasen (win 50, win 12)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.8pts win SMALL PRESENT
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.8pts win CASH TO ASH
BET 2.5pts win JET PLANE
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