FAVOURITES FAIL IN TOP TESTS: Daqman’s wrap of the weekend racing reveals how it changed some of the pecking order in markets for both the Gold Cup and the Champion Hurdle and turned the spotlight on a different stable as favourites failed.
TODAY: The calm after the storm (literally). Daqman has three bets from just two Monday afternoon cards at Kempton and Ludlow. There is no evening action tonight.
THE TRUE-LADY TRAINER..
Is it a new dawn? Favourites have been wasted in early skirmishing to find the champion hurdler and gold-cup winner of 2025.
Cheltenham gold holder, Gallopin Des Champs, and Fastorslow, his conqueror in last year’s John Durkan, were both beaten in the same Punchestown chase yesterday.
They were third and fourth as the J P McManus pair, Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower, battled out the one-two, with the Willie Mullins’ winner now Gold Cup favourite for Cheltenham in March.
Pushed right out of the picture is Grey Dawning, the young Dan Skelton player, who beat Bravemansgame in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock on Saturday but in front of both was the near-veteran Royale Pagaille, scoring for the second year running.
But shock of the day was the defeat in Ireland of champion hurdler State Man at 9-4 on favourite for the Morgiana Hurdle.
The winner was Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old Brighterdaysahead, overhauled by the favourite but rallying to lead again on the run-in.
Yes, Brighterdaysahead was receiving 7lb but their ratings before that race were 169-153. Handicapper and punters alike now have to make some readjustments.
TV commentators and pundits also need to readjust; when god-like trainers are beaten they blink as such as Venetia Williams steps into the limelight.
And for me the honours at the weekend go not only to Venetia’s training performance with Royal Pagaille but also to her performance in front of the cameras.
The usual insipid questions were asked, embroidered with the ‘incredibles’ and the ‘did you expect this to happen’ but, for once, the reserved true-lady trainer took charge in the manner of ‘if they’re not going to tell my story, I’m going to tell it myself!’
This was all home-bred, including the Hereford stable’s jockey power. After Sam Thomas and Aidan Coleman, she now had Charlie Deutsch.
Royal Pagaille was part of a 77-1 Saturday treble for the yard which produced this year’s Gold Cup fourth, L’Homme Presse (‘the man in a hurry’).
L’Homme Presse was struck into during the race or might have added a Gold Cup to Venetia’s Grand National with Mon Mome in 2009.
MORE FROM BOUR
⭕ 3.10 Kempton Not a bad jumps card at Kempton but a shame that the featured Listed mares’ hurdle, which looked like being quite competitive at the five-day stage, now looks just a penalty kick for Dan Skelton’s Kateira who was runner-up in this last year and will be long odds-on on Betdaq Betting Exchange to go one better.
The seven runner handicap chase that follows is infinitely more interesting from a betting angle and there might be value away from the front end of the market.
Nicky Henderson’s Doddiethegreat was heading the morning market but has a few questions to answer after a 220 day absence. His form rather tailed off earlier in the year culminating in a disappointing seventh at Ayr where he was sent off favourite but ‘never travelling’ according to the jockey.
I’m not overkeen either on Es Perfecto who was last of eight, beaten 46 lengths, at Sandown when last seen in March.
I think this could be set up for Bourbali who has the benefit of a recent winning run here at Kempton where he made all to win a class 3 over a slightly shorter trip. A 4lb hike doesn’t look overly onerous and he just looks the percentage call on a track he goes well at.
CUT TO THE CHASE
⭕ 3.25 Ludlow Kim Bailey’s mare Faerie Cutlass is only 1-13 over hurdles but remains unexposed and I think well handicapped over this kind of extended trip (3m).
There was plenty to like about her latest course and distance second to Prince De Juilley and a repeat effort should be enough.
If she does win that will be a form boost for Prince De Juilley who is set to run at Doncaster (11.55) on Friday.
HAT-TRICK FOR KABRAL
⭕ 3.45 Kempton Kabral Du Mathan can continue where he left off last season and build on Paul Nicholls’ strong start to the new campaign.
The four-year-old is unbeaten having scored in juvenile hurdles at Clairefontaine and Huntingdon where he won on the same good to soft ground as forecast today. His starting handicap mark of 123 doesn’t look too tough – certainly compared to top weight Zambezi Fix who is beginning to look quite exposed.
A bigger danger may come from King William Rufus who has been knocking on the door with three recent seconds but is also proving expensive to follow and has been a beaten favourite in his last two starts.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Kempton (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win BOURBALI
3.25 Ludlow (win 10)
BET 3.7pts win FAERIE CUTLASS
3.45 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 5.8pts win KABRAL DO MATHAN
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