DAQMAN SWAMPS PRICEWISE WITH VALUE BETDAQ WIN: That old fox Daqman was back on home ground yesterday after the Breeders Cup and ahead of the Melbourne Cup. Result: he landed the November Handicap at Naas with a win-50 bull’s-eye bet on Swamp Fox (WON 6-1 from 9.6 BETDAQ offers taken). He now leads Pricewise 84-23, some 297 points clear to a single-unit stake at SP.
MELBOURNE CUP RAIDERS HAVE TOP RIDERS BOOKED: His nap today is at Kempton but he concentrates on the Melbourne Cup at Flemington in the early hours of tomorrow morning, finding English and Irish connections for his 1-2-3 but with the accent on jockey bookings.
38.0 STORM WARNING FOR THE CUP
4.00 a.m., Flemington, Tuesday (Melbourne Cup) The 200 experts of the Racing Post, who are moving into the City (to make room for 200 more?) are unable to follow their own stats reasoning.
They and their readers learn from Big-Race Trends (page four in my edition) that the 10/10 top keys of all to finding the winner of the Melbourne Cup are ‘winner of a Group or Graded race’ and ‘had won over at least 1m 4f.’
But the form (pages 20, 21) for ‘the race that stops a nation’ (called Australia) is the form that stops at English and Irish runners!
They alone have listings of Group and distance wins – none for Australia, not even for French and German runners – though locating them is not Newtonian physics. It’s all in the Post’s own database!
Matching both criteria are Almandin, Marmelo, Rekindling, Amelie’s Star, Max Dynamite, Red Cardinal, Big Duke, Tiberian, Boom Time, Ventura Storm, Cismontane, Libran, US Army Ranger, Bondi Beach, Wicklow Brave, Gallante.
But no eight-year-old (Wicklow Brave) has won since 1865; and nine out of 10 winners carried no more than 8st 9lb (last year’s winner Almandin has 8st 13lb under Frankie Dettori).
Tiberian (stall 23) is on the cusp, saddled with 8st 10lb, but there have been only two winners in the decade drawn higher than 13. And just one lower than 5.
This makes life tough for Hughie Morrison’s Marmelo (gate 16), though booking Hugh Bowman for the job ride is a positive that could cancel out the negative.
Joseph O’Brien’s US Army Ranger (22) and the German raider Red Cardinal (24) are dawn high, while Willie Mullin’s Wicklow Brave camp has Thomas Hobson in 21 and Max Dynamite coming out of a low, low stall, alongside Rekindling.
In fact, my stats short-list is short indeed: Amelie’s Star, Big Duke, Boom Time, Libran and Ventura Storm.
Two other English raiders (Nakeeta, Wall Of Fire) may ‘get beat’ but the English connection could win: Ventura Storm was second for Richard Hannon in the 2016 Ladbrokes St Leger and has Glen Boss to pilot.
Ventura Storm was sent to the Hayes family in Oz to prepare for the Cup, and all went well until he was badly bumped and bruised a heel in the Caulfield Cup. He’s had 17 days recover since then so should be ok.
Boom Time won the Caulfield but it’s the also-rans from that race that do well in the Melbourne Cup. Single Gaze and Aidan O’Brien’s Johannes Vermeer were placed. Also ran: Humidor, Marmelo (stayed on well) and Amelie’s Star, a good winner of the Bart Cummings Handicap here at Flemington in early October.
Marmelo won the Kergorlay at Deauville in August (1m 7f) and I’m going to take the jockey bookings of Boss and Bowman as my guide and back Ventura Storm (38.0) and Marmelo (8.4)
Pricewise has picked three, so I’ll take as my 1-2-3 Ventura Storm, Marmelo and, staying with the jockey theme, Thomas Hobson.
Thomas Hobson (19.5), who bolted up in the Ascot Stakes, has Brazilian Joao ‘Magic Man’ Moreira booked by Willie Mullins.
In 2013, Joao rode eight straight winners on the card at Kranji on Singapore for a world record sequence (eat your heart out, seven-up Frankie Dettori), and he’s already captured one of the big races in Australia this year, the Oakleigh Plate.
SING FROM THE SAME HYMN SHEET
2.10 Plumpton It’s pretty much guesswork over the Jumps for a while. I shall have a pound on an outsider in this one. Charlie Mann has only ever booked Paddy Brennan once before and the combination won. Paddy is at Plumpton for Charlie today for the Milan mare, Welcome Polly (18.5 BETDAQ offers).
2.50 Kempton Western Hymn (5.5 BETDAQ) won this race last year and can enjoy the respite from Group company to get back on the scoreboard for John Gosden.
3.20 Kempton Ply, Seniority and Western Duke all won over today’s Kempton CD on the last day but those placed behind Seniority (5.6 on BETDAQ) were winners before or after the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each today, 50 points tomorrow)
BET 1pt win and place WELCOME POLLY (2.10 Plumpton)
BET 4.4pts win (nap) WESTERN HYMN (2.50 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win SENIORITY (3.20 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 6.75pts win MARMELO, 2.75pts win and place THOMAS HOBSON, 1.25pts win and place VENTURA STORM (4 a.m. Flemington, Australia, tomorrow morning)
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