HENDERSON SCORING TO THE MAX AND CAN LAND ANOTHER NAP: Daqman reports on his naps success and completes the survey of his betting and staking plans, started yesterday when he celebrated six years’ success over Pricewise. He launches his Jumps-season naps by opposing a morning odds-on shot in the opening race at Kempton with another Nicky Henderson horse.
FAIRYHOUSE IS LOST TO THE RAIN: INSPECTION TOMORROW: Both Fairyhouse and Stratford have been lost to the heavy rain today. Fairyhouse inspects for tomorrow’s card at 7.30 am, and Lingfield can’t take any more rain (turf heavy; AW slow).
BULL’S-EYE NAPS 256 POINTS IN PROFIT
Decide what you want to win! Target betting is the theme of Daqman tipping for the 2019-20 Jumps scene.
The everyday selections are staked to target a profit on the day, while the Saturday and big-race day tips aim at beating Pricewise of the Racing Post for value (see yesterday’s six-year results).
Every day, there’s a nap selection (best of the day) and some days a supernap (best of the naps) but, in between those positions, between short odds and outsiders, Daqman has a nap at value odds, the bulls-eye nap to win 50 points.
Supernaps: If short-odds naps can break even or show any level-stakes profit, it gives the backer a chance to impose his own staking plan, and delete personal no-go areas.
For example, some punters blanch at having maximum stakes on novices, particularly novice-chasers. Target: a 50% strike rate.
Bull’s-eye naps: As with the value bets against Pricewise, Daqman varies the stakes, but always aims at 50 points profit from BETDAQ offers that he considers bigger than they should be.
The best of them this year so far – there are usually around two a month – are listed below, with their stakes and offers taken.
NAPS REPORT:
Bulls-eye naps 2019, Flat and Jumps (8-16) 50% (256pts profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps, 2019 Flat (27-48) 56% (2pts profit to 20-point stake)
BEST OF THE BULL’S-EYE NAPS
WON 14-1 PIVOINE (York. 3.3pts at 16.0 BETDAQ plus place)
WON 6-1 DASHING WILLOUGHBY (Ascot, 3.75pts at 14.0 BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 LE DON DE VIE (Epsom, 8pts at 7.0 BETDAQ + 5 place)
WON 9-2 CRACKING FIND (Doncaster, 9.5pts at 6.2 BETDAQ)
WON 4-1 MOJITO (Sandown, 8pts win at 7.2 BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 COMMODORE (Sandown Park, 10pts at 6.2 BETDAQ)
HENDERSON SCORING TO THE MAX
12.20 Kempton I warned you that Nicky Henderson had sent out his marker to win last week, but the measure he obtained brought staggering returns. Results in five days: 12112011111, still standing.
Novice hurdles are his for the taking on the Kempton course (50% strike rate), so I’ll go along with Chasamax, with James Bowen 25% for the yard. It’s his only ride anywhere today.
Tea Clipper is a flagship for Tom Lacey, but the stable is back in the doldrums (0-18 in 25 days) since that one won five weeks ago.
The odds-on Tea Clipper has needed huge gap between previous starts and speculative that he can follow up, giving 7lb to Chasamax, for whom he makes a price (3.8 on BETDAQ this morning).
2.40 Kempton Another Nicky Henderson, Morning Vicar (4.7 BETDAQ taken) is expected to go well first time in a handicap. His future is over fences, but this lovely, big horse gets 9lb here from Capitaine, who provides the benchmark.
After a tweak to his wind op, Capitaine should close down Irish Prophecy on 5lb better terms for their 1-2 at Wincanton. Capitaine is 1111232, still standing, going right-handed, and needs a flat track like today’s but was very easy to back this morning, out to 8.0.
Organdi has been punished 11lb for scoring at Ludlow. The form has been franked by the third horse home but since that one is trained Emma Lavelle, you’d think she’d know the form for her own Irish Prophecy.
3.50 Kempton Colin Tizzard takes a gamble here with a young horse, Catch The Cuban – only three years old – and a young rider, Harry Kimber, in this conditional-jockeys’ handicap hurdle.
Some can’t claim but Harry takes off 8lb, so there’s only room on the scales for a handkerchief where he should be carrying a saddle. He gets up to a stone and a half from his nearest rivals in the market. BETDAQ 7.0 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.20 Kempton (win 20)
BET 5pts win (nap) CHASAMAX
2.40 Kempton (win 20, win 10)
BET 5.5pts win MORNING VICAR
BET 1.4pts win CAPITAINE
3.50 Kempton (win 20, place to save the win stake)
BET 3.25pts win and place CATCH THE CUBAN
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
