SEVEN NAPS OUT OF EIGHT FOR ICE-COOL DAQMAN: So near and yet so far for Daqman in the Ladbrokes Troytown Chase at Navan yesterday with Don’t Tell No One (2ND 12-1). But he struck again five minutes later at Uttoxeter with his best bet, Ice Cool Champs, making back-to-back 3-1 naps. He’s now landed seven out of the last eight for a profit of 223 points to 20-point stakes, as follows, Sunday to Sunday:
WON 3-1 ICE COOL CHAMPS (yesterday)
WON 3-1 CLAN DES OBEAUX (Saturday)
2ND 1-3 JUGE ET PARTI (Friday supernap)
WON 11-10 AINSI VA LA VIE (Thursday supernap)
WON 1-2 QAYSAR (Wednesday)
WON 7-4 KAYFLEUR (Tuesday)
WON 2-1 CIAOADIOSIMDONE (Monday)
WON 4-5 FOX NORTON (Sunday supernap)
6-1 PLUS AND 20-1 BIG CHASE PUNTS: Daqman today moves in on the King George and Grand National ante-post lists, with bets at 7.2 on BETDAQ and 20-1, as early positions ahead of a forecast reassessment of two of the top chasers.
TWIST ON THE ANTE-POST MARKETS..
Backers and layers alike refuse to believe it. Despite Bristol De Mai’s 57-length romp in Saturday’s Lancashire Chase at Haydock Park, he was 7.2 on BETDAQ this morning for the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
They no doubt argue that Bristol De Mai beat a Cue Card who is a shadow of his former self (retire him now, please, Mr Tizzard) and of the third horse, Outlander, you’d have to accept that he’s moody and not always at the races.
But, even if this was an inflated race – as I warned beforehand last week – even if you cut the winning distance in half, Bristol De Mai, ran to 186 before any adjustment, which is 10lb better than Cue Card has ever been.
That would be 3lb above Kauto Star’s best rating, so either we are in an equine fantasy-land, boggled by Bristol de Mai’s victory, or he only has to turn up at Kempton.
The handicapper is on a hiding to nothing. He has to try to identifiy ‘the true’ Bristol De Mai and is also in danger of grossly underestimating the ability of one that ran Bristol De Mai to half a length less than a month ago, November 4 to be exact.
Again, taken at face value, the winner’s rating that day in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby was anything up to 183 (he was nearly 24 lengths in front of the 159-rated third, Definitely Red).
Either a new world of steeplechasing was opened up – superfranked by the Haydock race – or we are in a sky-high fantasy that only subsequent results can bring down to earth. I suspect a mixture of both.
Second horse home at Wetherby was Bristol De Mai’s stablemate, Blaklion. And that’s where the handicapper has even more egg on his face. Scrambled.
Despite only a half-length defeat by Bristol De Mai, Blaklion’s rating was REDUCED by the handicapper by 2lb from 155 to 153, seemingly taking the view that the race was typical early season prepping but was the little Lion – he’s a small horse – really going BACKWARDS?
Even taken over time, the ratings adjustment declared that his ability had done no more than level off (in fact, had dipped slightly by a pound) since he was awarded 154 seven races and 19 months earlier.
This could now look way, way off beam, and the words of Blaklion’s trainer could come back to haunt the handicapper and create another huge headache for him in the weeks leading up to Aintree 2018.
After the eight-year-old had finished second in this year’s Haydock Grand National Trial, his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies declared: ‘We will win the National!’
In fact, bumped two out and slightly hampered at the last, Blaklion was fourth, giving weight to the first three (off a Grand National special rating of 152).
Better get on Bristol de Mai now for the King George (7.2 BETDAQ) and Blaklion for next year’s National (20-1 Corals), before Blaklion is also reassessed. And before he runs in the Becher Chase a week on Saturday, December 9.
There seems to be a sea change. The usual winter triumvirate of Henderson v Nicholls v Mullins has been usurped by Gordon Elliott, leading trainer in Ireland, and Twiston-Davies in England.
Twiston has already won major chases this autumn with Foxtail Hill, Cogry and Splash of Ginge, in addition to the exploits of Bristol de Mai and Blaklion.
NOW IT’S POWER TO THE SUPERNAPS
12.35 Ludlow Dual bumper winner for Jessica Harrington, New To This Town is odds on this morning, switched to Colin Tizzard in the hope of a revival after modest hurdles form.
One for the future over fences, and a win-and-place choice today, is 10.5 BETDAQ offer Awake At Midnight, a big strong grandson of stamina sire Kayf Tara.
12.50 Kempton As the market suggests, this looks close between BETDAQ 2.44 chance Burrows Edge (‘he’s very athletic’) and 4.4 offer Potterman (‘I suspect he has a big engine’), both getting excellent quotes from their trainers, Nicky Henderson and Alan King respectively.
1.25 Kempton Henderson expects Brain Power to go to the top as a chaser, after back-to-back wins over hurdles at Sandown and Ascot at this time last year.
His Cheltenham form (00), including a tilt at the Champion Hurdle, does not inspire, and he did much better when beaten little more than three lengths in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle.
I could get six for every 10 staked this morning on BETDAQ to continue the run of my supernaps.
2.00 Kempton Alan King will be disappointed if Midnight Tour (4.3 taken on BETDAQ) can’t win this Listed and get back on track to better things.
She was not disgraced in the Mares Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival, before more than proving herself at today’s level, back at Cheltenham five weeks later.
She won six lengths, stopping a hat-trick bid by the second, who was in receipt of a stone and a half from the winner.
The morning favourite, Jer’s Girl, has the better overall form, runner-up to Apple’s Jade in a Grade 2 recently, but will need the Kempton ground to really soften up to be a confident bet at 2.36.
La Bague Au Roi has an impressive eight-from-11 record. The Doctor Dino mare has also won a Listed but was well beaten every time in all attempts at Graded level.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 2pts win and place AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT (12.35 Ludlow)
BET 5.75pts win POTTERMAN (12.50 Kempton)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts BRAIN POWER (1.25 Kempton)
BET 6pts win MIDNIGHT TOUR (2.00 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BET (ante-post) 8pts win BRISTOL DE MAI (King George, 7.2 on BETDAQ)
TON-UP BET (ante-post): 5pts win BLAKLION (Grand National, 20-1 Corals)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
