DERBY COUNTDOWN: CONNECTIONS: How well connected is your Derby fancy? Racing is all about class and Epsom on Saturday is a contest of bluebloods. Daqman marks your card today for breeding, trainers’ and jockeys’ success in the race and stable form at the track.
RELENTLESS WINNER-FINDING: As for class tipping, BETDAQ brings you free every day the relentless winner-finding Daqman, whose figures speak for themselves:
Daqman 34, Pricewise 13
Fortune Cookies + 76pts
Naps 7-14 (50%) + 151
Lays 21-26 (80%) + 310
DOUGLAS HAS GOT THE DERBY CONNECTIONS
You need breeding and connections! Fine horses are like lords and ladies; they have fine connections; all class. But there the analogy ends.
Finely bred horses are your friends as a punter, whoever your antecedents. Not always so with the upper crust and aristocracy of so-called-human beings.
Sires, and sires of sires and dams, give you racing bluebloods, and I’ve weighted these breeding connections most of all in this list of who’s-who of bloodstock, stable, owner and jockey.
Sire and grandsire: Connection to Derby winners of the last decade: Sadlers Wells 6, Galileo 4, Cape Cross 3, Kingmambo 3, Montjeu 3, Kings Best 1.
They give you Port Douglas 3, Sayedaati Saadati 3, Ulysees 3, Beacon Rock 2, Bravery 2, Cloth Of Stars 2, Deauville 2, Idaho 2, Lustrous Light 2, The Gurkha 2, US Army Ranger 2, Across The Stars 1, Algometer 1, Awtaad 1, Biodynamic 1, Gershwin 1, Harzand 1, Linguistic 1, Massaat 1, Moonlight Magic 1, Prize Money 1, Shogun 1,
Derby Owners Winning owners with runners, any two of Smith/Tabor/Magnier 6 winners (one point each Beacon Rock, Bravery, Deauville, Idaho, Port Douglas, Shogun, The Gurkha, US Army Ranger).
Derby Trainers Winning trainers with runners: Aidan O’Brien 5, Sir Michael Stoute 5, John Gosden 2, Saeed bin Suroor 1 (one point each Across The Stars, Beacon Rock, Bravery, Deauville, Idaho, Linguistic, Port Douglas, Shogun, The Gurkha, Ulysees, US Army Ranger, Wings Of Desire).
Derby Jockeys Winning jockeys with rides Kieren Fallon 3, Frankie Dettori 2, Ryan Moore 2 (Across The Stars, Ulysees, US Army Ranger)
Epsom stables Derby trainers’ five-year Epsom record: David Simcock 9-31; John Gosden 11-42; Sir Michael Stoute 4-24; Aidan O’Brien 7-33; Team Hannon 9-43; Saeed bin Suroor 3-31;
OVERALL RESULT: Port Douglas 6, Ulysees 6, US Army Ranger 6, Beacon Rock 5, Bravery 5, Deauville 5, Idaho 5, The Gurkha 5.
DISASTER FROM START TO (DIDN’T) FINISH
Give me a break! Those days of ‘bad luck’ when the fates contrive against you must not put you off your betting, or dull your wit when you search the latest racecards. But doesn’t it make you want to spit!
Take yesterday (and keep it in the bin): just about everything I touched turned from gold to lead. I quote from the Racing Post racereaders:
EMBIRAN: ‘Suffered a disaster from start to finish.. badly hampered.. forced to drop to rear.’
HAKEEM: ‘Harry Bentley found himself in the wrong position at every point of the race that mattered.. had no room.. dropped away late.’
WASHINGTON DC: Given a too-confident ride.. ’by the time he got daylight, the bird up front had flown.’
The consolation prize is that, if we’re on the right horses and they lose, we get a better BETDAQ offer next time.
I shall try for an outsider and a hot one today – that’s two each at the three Flat meetings – but it doesn’t feel like Bank Holiday does it.
EASY AS A-BEE-C! COX SWEEPS UP WINDSOR
2.55 Windsor The results by stall suggest a low-draw bias (3, 2, 1, 1, 3 in the last five years), and Clive Cox has had a total of three winners and three seconds from seven runners at the last two Windsor meetings this month.
Cox has a progressive Sir Percy filly in gate one, with Adam Kirby taking over on her for the first time (trainer and jockey are 30% as a combo). The 6.8 in the BETDAQ orange looked QI for Quebee!
5.35 Windsor Oisin Murphy is 2-2 for Malcolm Sanders and is back on board firm-ground filly Pixieleen for the first time since, over today’s CD nearly two years ago, the partnership won at 25-1. I saw 15.5 early mouse in the BETDAQ orange today.
HOW O’MEARA PLOTTED TO HIT THE JACKPOT
3.25 Redcar (Zetland Gold Cup) Another race in which the results by stall suggest an edge. For five years now, only stalls 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 have filled the first two places.
By chance, David O’Meara has grabbed three of those slots. I say ‘by chance’ but four runners was almost certain to get him into one of the golden gates.
Fattsota’s success has come mainly over further, and he’d probably need rain to relish the shorter trip, while Tawdeea is going for a hat-trick after back-to-back wins at a lower level.
Hit The Jackpot will enjoy the sound surface, and 22.0 in the BETDAQ orange is ‘wrong’, though I shall also have to back the unexposed Roger Varian runner, Central Square (stall 2 at best offers of 4.3).
Roger has a 31% record on this course. Harry Bentley’s chance to redeem himself (see Hakeem above) on only his third Redcar ride.
STAY ON MOORE’S SIDE AND LAND A BANKER
3.20 Leicester Michael Wigham is a dangerous man when he’s in form, and he usually plots a hatful of them together, so I risked a pound – at 46.0 on BETDAQ this morning – on Nona Blu (3.20), switched to him from Harry Dunlop.
Fresh from the lesson of Washington DC (yes, twas old poker face in the saddle), Ryan Moore should be among the winners with one or more of Terhaal in Nona Blu’s race, Moorside (3.55) and Madrinho (4.25).
3.55 Leicester Charles Hills has a 25% strike rate at Leicester and Moorside drops three grades from the Listed Cheshire Oaks, the trainer no doubt keen for her to know what winning a race is like. She’s still in the Ribblesdale.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker)
BET 3.4pts win QUEBEE (2.55 Windsor)
BET 10pts win TERHAAL, and 1pt win and place NONA BLU (3.20 Leicester)
BET 6pts win CENTRAL SQUARE, and 1pt win and place HIT THE JACKPOT (3.25 Redcar)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MOORSIDE (3.55 Leicester)
BET 1.4pts win and place PIXIELEEN (5.35 Windsor)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
