CLASSIC COUNTDOWN: EASY AS ABC: The Oaks, The Derby, the Coronation Cup. Daqman puts them all under his famous stats-and-facts ABC microscope for Epsom’s big meeting at the weekend, starting today with The Oaks.
WINNERS DIRECT FROM DAQMAN: Daqman maintained his winner a day with Direct Image (WON 5-2 Sunday) following Sea La Rosa (WON 9-4 Saturday). He has three bets on Monday.
GOSDEN PAIR CLASSIC PICK
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Friday (The Oaks) ABC guide
A RATING 99 or higher (8 out of 10)
B FORM won Listed; placed Group or Trial (9/10)
C STAMINA on the racecourse or in the breeding.
D TRAINER Aidan O’Brien 9, John Gosden 3.
E EXPERIENCE Two or three previous races only (7/10)
ABCDE EMILY UPJOHN
Sea The Stars filly (out of a Barathea mare) had won only novice events until a scintillating Musidora victory (Ching Shih third; kept on; needs soft ground)
ABCDE NASHWA
Emily Upjohns Team Gosden stablemate (Frankel out of a Pivotal mare) was a smooth winner of a Newbury trial.
ABCD CONCERT HALL
Dubawi out of a Galileo mare, was six lengths off the winner of the Irish 1,000 Guineas but, third, only half a length behind runner-up Tuesday, running on.
ABCD THOUGHTS OF JUNE
Galileo filly, stablemate of Concert Hall, won the Cheshire Oaks by a neck from Above The Curve, who won yesterday’s Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp.
ABCD TUESDAY
Third O’Brien runner; another Galileo out of Lillie Langtry, therefore a full sister to Minding. Third in the English 1,000 Guineas, second in the Irish.
ABC KAWIDA
Daughter of Sir Percy; beat With The Moonlight (3rd) at Newmarket (1m) in October and third in April at Saint-Cloud to Place Du Carrousel, second in yesterday’s Saint-Alary.
AB TRANQUIL LADY
By Australia but not certain to stay the 1m 4f; disappointing behind Concert Hall at Navan but stepped up to Group 3 at Naas and won on yielding/soft. An O’Brien runner rated 100 was second.
AB WITH THE MOONLIGHT
Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, a very easy winner of the Newmarket Pretty Polly Stakes.
BCE ROGUE MILLENIUM
By Dubawi and related down the dam’s side to winners up to 1m 6f, including an Oaks winner. Won the Lingfield Oak Trial in the final strides.
CD THE ALGARVE
Fourth in the Musidora to Emily Upjohn and looks likely pacemaker for Team O’Brien
CE CHING SHIH
Daughter of a French Derby winner. In front of The Algarve when went third in the final furlong of the Musidora.
– MOON DE VEGA
Sire won the French Derby. Doncaster maiden winner who returned with fourth in the Cheshire Oaks (not clear run).
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.2 Emily Upjohn, 5.5 Nashwa, 7.4 Concert Hall, 8 Tuesday, With The Moonlight, 13 Tranquil Lady , 15 Thoughts Of June, 19.5 Moon De Vega, 34 Kawida, 60 The Algarve, 96 Ching Shih.
NOTES GOOD FOR SONDHEIM
⭕ 1.50 Lingfield George Boughey has wasted no time in getting Simply Sondheim out again after his win at Hamilton last week on handicap debut.
The bare value of the form probably doesn’t amount to too much – he beat a 100/1 chance into second but won with enough in hand to suggest he can shrug off the 6lb statutory penalty and continue the excellent run of form for the stable (currently 10 winners from last 41).
The handicapper had precious little to go on from his first three starts – he was beaten 40 lengths on debut and finished seventh in two subsequents starts on the all-weather.
He is clearly a lot better than that and now the penny appears to have dropped the current handicap mark of 62 may, in time, look like a gift.
There’s a real paucity of opposition. At double figure prices I thought Elsaab could be one of the biggest dangers under apprentice Harry Davies who already looks a good prospect.
CELIA IMPRESSES MORE
⭕ 7.30 Ayr Having spent a long while trying to unravel the 6.00 I gave up and there are only three runners. I decided it was a (three-sided) coin flip !
In the sprint handicap Impressor’s chance has become easier with the defection of Rory.
Impressor ended a long losing run with a win over six furlongs here last time out but that was on soft and it’s good to firm tonight. He’s disappointed on quick ground before.
I wouldn’t be in a huge hurry to back him to follow-up over the shorter trip although he is back at a reasonable level handicap wise having spent far too long running off higher marks.
I prefer the chance of Lady Celia who may have needed the recent run at Ripon and if that’s put her back near her best form of last year that could easily be good enough.
ADDS UP TO ADATORIO
⭕ 8.15 Windsor A real tricky finale over a mile but I noted Adatorio putting in a good shift at Bath last time out when staying on really strongly and will stick with the Clive Cox trained runner at a sporting price here.
The stable have a good record in this race and are also in decent current form with three winners from their last eight runners.
Eklil was a beaten favourite last time out and could easily top the market again but the 5lb hike in the handicap for his narrow course and distance win in April might just anchor him again.
Richard Hannon’s Mount Kosciuszko brings fairly solid form to the table but doesn’t look one to trust implicitly and is tried tonight in blinkers for the first time.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 14.0pts win (nap) SIMPLY SONDHEIM
7.30 Ayr (win 10)
BET 1.5pts LADY CELIA
8.15 Windsor (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win ADATORIO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
