CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: GROUNDS FOR CONCERN: 200 tons of snow to clear and rain forecast right through to the start of next week’s Cheltenham Festival. Daqman tries to sort it all out with a five-day preview in which he lists (today) horses hoping for good ground and tomorrow until Friday lines up the stats that matter with some positive ante-post bets for the soft-ground stars.
HORSES DROPPED IN GRADE COULD BE GOOD VALUE: Four UK meetings survive today, including the return of the jumpers at Southwell. Daqman is particularly keen on horses dropped in grade at 3.35, 3.8 and even 23.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning. The nap is at Lingfield.
GOING TO BE THE UNLUCKY 13?
After the snow the rain. The Cheltenham Festival going seems almost certain to be soft, maybe even with the dreaded ‘heavy’ in the ground description.
Here are 13 horses to beware of which clearly do best on a sound(ish) surface. Aintree and Punchestown may benefit if Cheltenham is too deep for them.
CAUSE OF CAUSES (Cross Country) Cheltenham Festival form: 02111. The ‘0’ was on soft ground. All success on good, good-to-soft going at worst. In great form, Gordon Elliott
FOXTAIL HILL (Brown Advisory or Grand Annual) Four times a winner on good ground. On soft his recent three starts: 000. Would bounce back on better ground, Nigel Twiston-Davies.
JURY DUTY (NH Challenge Cup) Winner on soft, but better ground would help him, Gordon Elliott
GOLD PRESENT (Ultima) All success on good, good to soft. A very good jumper, Nicky Henderson.
LE PREZIEN (Brown Advisory) Three times tested round Cheltenham. He’s been waiting for decent ground, Paul Nicholls
MENGLI KHAN (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Better ground would suit him, Gordon Elliott
MODUS (JLT) He would love to see decent ground, Paul Nicholls
OLD GUARD (Stayers Hurdle) He is much better on drying ground, Paul Nicholls
PETIT MOUCHOIR (Arkle) Winning form on good/yielding four times in six successes, Henry De Bromhead
ROMAIN DE SENAM (Brown Advisory) He will be bang on, but needs good ground and a real fast gallop, Paul Nicholls.
SAPHIR DU RHEU (Gold Cup) You’d see a completely different horse on good ground, Paul Nicholls
SUPASUNDAE (Stayers Hurdle) My best chance but soft ground would worry me a little, Jessica Harrington.
VERDANA BLUE (Mares Hurdle) All wins on good, good to soft, Too speedy for heavy ground, Nicky Henderson.
REMILUC NAP AT LOWER LEVEL
2.20 Southwell Though Mondo Cane is 11, he should again account for Skipping On (Leicester form of 18 days ago) but his 1-16 record over fences says little for either of them.
Skint and Ballythomas are also equine pensioners, so maybe this is an opportunity for Good Man Hughie (3.8 BETDAQ offers taken).
Hughie was a winner over 2m 3f plus over hurdles on heavy and is now stepped back up in trip after a fair effort at Lingfield over fences last month.
3.45 Lingfield Remiluc finds himself representing top Cheltenham candidates here, having run second at Newbury to one of the Arkle market leaders, Saint Calvados, and fifth in the Newbury Hurdle behind the gambled-on Supreme contender, Kalashnikov (Knocknanuss pulled up).
Landin has a light weight but the handicapper says he’s shown no improvement in his four hurdles outings.
In fact, like Marley Firth, he has been dropped below his original handicap mark. I took 3.35 Remiluc for the nap.
3.55 Southwell Good morning Cap’N! I’m not sure whether this horse is steering the ship or printing the racecard. But he is a hidden horse after running against such as Elgin and Buveur d’Air.
Of course, he might be hiding from himself, but I always have a pop at something at meetings like today’s. So I took 23.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
TOMKEVI DROPPED IN CLASS
4.25 Southwell Tomkevi, a 3.8 BETDAQ offer, had a good run at this time last year. Spring form over hurdles and fences of 2121, still standing. He drops down to that level for the first time since.
Cheekpieces will have to make a big difference to Corlay and blinkers will need to revive the 2015 form of Princess Tara. Riddlestown has pulled up the last twice and goes for the hat–trick!
I need convincing that this longer trip will suit Flat-bred
Sartene’s Son, and Boher Lad, now 11, is much higher in the handicap than for his CD wins.
7.45 Wolverhampton Celestial Spheres has won three out of four, which has cost him a 10lb rise up a grade into class 2.
And Al Hamdany is well weighted to reverse December form with him at Lingfield.
Mount Tahan has won in class 2 on this very course but has never raced beyond 9.5f, and his ability to get today’s trip has to be taken on trust.
My preference as for Soldier In Action, given a 4.9 BETDAQ chance, who has already scored four times at today’s level, turf and AW.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
2.20 Southwell
BET 7pts win GOOD MAN HUGHIE
3.45 Lingfield
BET 8.75pts win(nap) REMILUC
3.55 Southwell
BET 1pt win and place CAP’N
4.25 Southwell
BET 7pts win TOMKEVI
7.45 Wolverhampton
BET 5pts win SOLDIER IN ACTION
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