THE NAP IS ON THE MAP AGAIN! Daqman made it back-to-back naps when he latched on to a huge Kempton Park gamble on Cartographic (WON 8-11) yesterday, backed down from 3.35 on BETDAQ, and booted home to win by only a head. It followed banker stakes on Black Hercules (WON 5-6) at Warwick on Saturday.
FOLLOW THE BETDAQ MARKET: Where did that Cartographic gamble come from? When? Were there others on the day? How can I get on? How can I get the price I want? Daqman provides some of the value-spotting answers in his first article today, before he checks out the Plumpton card.
NICE LITTLE EARNERS IN MARKET MOVERS
You can beat the odds twice on BETDAQ. You either find a potential market mover, like Cartographic yesterday or, when you check out your picks in the orange, try to earn a double bonus by making a bigger offer.
Double bonus? Well, if you get a match for the bigger price you offer (bonus one), you earn a deduction in commission down to 2% (bonus two).
To try to use these ploys, I mark down the offers from the orange on my racecard (in the Racing Post or on typed lists I make up myself).
I give each horse, say, six ranks, showing the best available offer (lowest liquidity) at 8 a.m., 8.30 a.m., 9 a.m., 9.30 a.m, 10.30 a.m, 12.45 p.m.
That last timing is for Plumpton today. It’s one hour before the ‘off’ time of the first race, so will vary day by day from meeting to meeting.
MAKE THE MARKET: Check out the orange early-mouse, before the market settles down, maybe between 8.00 and 9 a.m., and you will often have a bigger percentage total (see the figure at the top of the list, left of the ‘Back All’ orange marker) than you’ll see from around 9 a.m. onwards.
If you make your move at this time, you know you are in a market which will see several horses ease in ‘price’ and the overall percentage reduce. This is your chance to make that market!
SPOT THE ACTION: Now monitor the activity, with a view to finding inward market movers, closers that you might still latch on to. The site itself electronically reveals market patterns but – call me old fashioned – I like to be hands on and work them into my racecards.
MARKET MOVERS: Single-click the ‘Movers’ icon in the Betdaq Tips bar to spot the top five closers, like yesterday’s..
2.00 KEMPTON: ‘Cartographic 3.35 to 2.72 (23% change)’
3.10 KEMPTON: ‘Haines 5.0 to 3.4 (47% change)’
The run on the job horse, Cartographic, continued in to 8-11 at SP, while Haines was steady after the morning flurry and finished 5-2 favourite.
Both won; the one in a desperate finish, the other easily. Nice little earners from the Market Movers column.
THE FUTURE: One reason for keeping my own charts on paper, or in my computer, is that the BETDAQ orange movers will also contain horses that didn’t pay off on the day.
Should we black-mark them? Or was there a valid reason for a seemingly poor display when the money was down?
For instance, the Racing Post says of Pour La Victoire (’11.0 to 7.4 (48% change) 4.10 Kempton’ that he:
‘Was another one keeping on well at the finish in a race not really run to suit the deep closers.’ Next time, eh?
BISHOP TO IMPROVE FOR IN-FORM BOWEN
1.45 Plumpton Sunshine Corner, dropped four grades from a Listed second, was hot this morning at 1.41 in the BETDAQ orange.
As a result, Dalaki was easing in price. I stepped in when the orange showed 5.1 and asked for 5.5. Matched to small stakes as the race percentage closed in to 104%
Sunshine Corner has had more experience, and in better company, but we simply don’t know about Dalaki. He scooted up 18 lengths at Fakenham. Could be good; could be rubbish.
What we do know is that Dalaki has to give the mare’s allowance to Sunshine Corner. We’ll put some Sunshine into our Daq Multiples, with the idea that there are two ways to skin a cat.
2.45 Plumpton Skipping the small-field, lower-class chase, I moved on to this handicap hurdle (class 4), in which they offered 6.2 the field, flagging up a ‘nobody knows’ for the outcome.
But I invariably oppose older horses over hurdles. That I’m not wrong to do so is borne out in past results of this race (no winner over the age of six, despite heavy ground).
While Tim Vaughan and Nigel Hawke have been struggling, Peter Bowen has suddenly hit some form, so I sided with Bishop Wulstan (17.5 in the BETDAQ orange).
Half-brother to a 3m hurdle-chase winner, Bishop Wulstan has – in the words of former trainer Harry Whittington – ‘always been a grinder.’
So the step up in trip today in the prevailing conditions could suit.
CLODIANNA NAP TO CLIP DANCER’S WINGS
2.30 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Handicap) Richard Fahey has had 15 horses placed in the first four from 17 to start in the last 10 days, so we can be sure Abbey Angel is on song.
In fact, the filly was narrowly beaten only four days ago on an easy AW surface at Chelmsford, dropped back to the mile, and should like it here. Fahey spots that she gets weight all round: 6.6 offers in the BETDAQ orange.
4.00 Wolverhampton Fahey’s bottomweight Frap couldn’t go out fast enough this morning (no takers at 8.2 as I write), with money pouring in for Clodianna.
Winged Dancer is a favourite to oppose – beat nothing on the last day (favourite underperformed) – and Clodianna’s 3.00 seemed good value, stepped up in trip after good efforts over shorter at Kempton and Lingfield.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 4pts win DALAKI (1.45 Plumpton)
BET 3pts win and place ABBEY ANGEL (2.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 1pt win and place BISHOP WULSTAN (2.45 Plumpton)
BET 8pts win (nap) CLODIANNA (4.00 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double SUNSHINE CORNER (1.45 Plumpton) and CLODIANNA (4.00 Wolverhampton)
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