FULL-ON SUPERNAP PAYS FOR BETTING DAY: Daqman’s staking plan worked well yesterday, his supernap, Full Bore (WON 10-11), paying for his bull’s-eye bets in Ireland with a nine-lengths win, though he still has reservations about the November Handicap at Naas (see below)
ABC GUIDE: TOMORROW’S MELBOURNE CUP: Get yourself a late night position for the Melbourne Cup in the BETDAQ orange, then set the alarm for the ‘off’ at 4 a.m. tomorrow morning.
KEEP IT IN THE FAMILY, AVILIUS!
4.00 a.m tomorrow Flemington (Melbourne Cup) TEN English and Irish raiders have been lured by the £2.3m first prize for tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup, won by Ireland (Dermot Weld twice and Joseph O’Brien last year), France and Germany. But the purse has never left Australia’s shores for England.
Rekindling was a rare winner last year because he hadn’t raced in Australia before. Though the race becomes more than ever one of quality, with international runners, it is still advisable to prep your horses locally. ABC key to past form and stats of the winners:
A All had won a Group or Graded race
B All bar one since 2009 was drawn 13 or lower.
C All bar one in the decade carried 8st 9lb or less.
D All were aged three to six.
X Black mark (not run in Australia before or previously unplaced in the Melbourne Cup)
ABCD Avilius
Trained James Cummings, grandson of Bart Cummings who won this race 12 times. Formerly with Andre Fabre, second to Cracksman in the Prix Niel Arc trial last year.
Unbeaten this year, including Bart Cummings Handicap over CD, before finished well, fourth to Winx as outsider for Ladbrokes Cox Plate over shorter at Moonee Valley.
ABCD Runaway
Gai Waterhouse trained the winner in 2013. This one is raised in class but has won on the course (1m 6f) and took the Geelong Cup on the last day. Up in trip.
ABCD Youngstar
Won the Queensland Oaks and length second to Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Staying on seventh in the Caulfield Cup. This is not normally a race for female horses but it’s been the year of the fillies.
XABCD Ventura Storm
Ran well on the course, fourth to Winx in the Turnbull Stakes a month ago, but 30 lengths behind the winner in this race last year.
XABCD Marmelo
Ninth last year and handicapper not impressed by back-to-back wins at York and Longchamp in the summer. He dropped him a pound!
ABD Best Solution
Avilius (see above), Best Solution (Saeed Bin Suroor) and Cross Counter (Charlie Appleby) form the Godolphin team for this.
Best Solution comes to this from a four-timer completed in the Caulfield Cup. Needs rain and never raced beyond 1m 4f.
ABD The Cliffsofmoher
Stayed on well, third in the Caulfield Cup, but only one win from last 14 starts and looks a nearly horse unless this jump in distance pays dividends.
ACD Finche
Son of Frankel, third behind Runaway in the Geelong Cup. Up in trip.
ACD A Prince Of Arran
After second in the Norrthumberland Plate, travelled here early, third at Caulfield in the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes, a good guide to this. Won the Lexus here at Flemington on the last day. Drawn on the wide outside.
ACD Rostropovich
Irish Derby runner-up to Latrobe, well behind Winx in Ladbrokes Cox Plate. In and out form but that’s explained because he has to have a decent racing surface.
ACD Yucatan
Aidan O’Brien also runs Rostropovich and The Cliffsofmoher. A nearly horse at the top level whose trainer said in the summer he ‘might’ get 1m 4f, so he must have improved a ton to win the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield, eased down, though the handicapper keeps him on the same mark.
XABD Muntahaa
Went clear in the Ebor Handicap at York for a trainer (John Gosden) who has literally made millions – 10 at a guess – in England and America this year. Stall 13 not helpful as he gets claustrophobic among a pack of horses.
XACD Cross Counter
Beat the Epsom Derby runner-up at Glorious Goodwood which seemed hot at the time. Beaten in the Great Voltigeur since but unexposed after just seven races.
XAD Magic Circle
Aged six but big leap forward for a change of stables, winning Chester Cup and Henry 11 Stakes. Long rest to wait for this, but drawn highish. Globetrotting jockey won this in 2008.
VERDICT (order in):
1 Avilius (13.0 BETDAQ), 2 Youngstar (14.0 offers), 3 Yucatan, 4 A Prince Of Arran
BETTING RESERVATIONS
Well done if you found Mr Everest, the well backed 7/1 co-fav winner of the November Handicap at Naas yesterday.
But also well done if you even knew it was in the race. That would have depended on what time you looked at the racecard.
The Tony Martin trained Mr Everest only made it in as first reserve after Golden Spear (same owner and trainer) was withdrawn and the rest, as they say, is history.
It’s a plot worthy of a Dick Francis chapter but is it time to ditch the reserve system?
It’s not a level playing field for punters. We are now in an era where racing is marketed to far flung areas of the globe and the clamour is for earlier declarations not last minute Hokey Cokey changes to the runners.
The game is hard enough as it is. In the case of Mr Everest, early punters were faced with a mountain of problems yesterday.
KEMPTON EAGLE HAS LANDED
THE NAP: 6.00 Kempton (Listed) A standout race on a poor day of domestic racing. Crowned Eagle has plenty in hand on official ratings but also comes into this in good form on the back of finishing second in Sweden.
The Marco Botti trained runner won the prestigious Rosebery Handicap on his last (and only) visit to Sunbury and went on to show his class by finishing second to Rainbow Rebel in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock.
Main danger on the figures is Architecture but the Hugo Palmer trained runner has been off the course for 373 days and the mare has no experience on the all-weather so has to be a risky proposition punting wise.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Afternoon bets staked to win 20 points):
1.45 Hereford
BET 8.2pts win HIDE THE BISCUIT
2.00 Plumpton
BET 9pts win ANDAPA
6.00 Kempton
BET 10.5pts win (nap) CROWNED EAGLE
4 a.m FLEMINGTON TOMORROW (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.3pts win AVILIUS
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.4pts win YOUNGSTAR
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