FOLLOW THE MARKET AND KEEP STAKES LOW: There were turn-ups and shocks in the mud yesterday and Daqman warns today about the consequences to the market and to future events of races run in the heavy ground. He keeps stakes low, as he checks out the cards at Musselburgh and Plumpton and at two AW venues. His best bet comes at Musselburgh.
WEATHER WARNING ON NOVICES
Horses are talking in the market. They’re drifting and telling you: I’m not fit today; the ground doesn’t suit me; Im ‘not off,’ as they used to say.
They may also be saying ‘don’t miss me next time, when there’s better ground and a fast pace,’ as they blow up and fade at the business end.
The problem with today’s going is that there is soft, there is heavy, there is mud’ and there is bog-deep ankle-gripping glue.
Serious money for one suggests the horse will be in his element in the mudbath that pertains in his race on that day.
Be prepared in the New Year to see the losers you backed this autumn and early winter come good, turning over the heavy-ground form. You’re in luck: they will be forgotten or opposed, and a better price for being beaten.
The best way to look at racing right now is this: there are two different types of animal running; the heavy-ground plodders and the top-of-the-ground sprinters.
It’s not quite like that because some have both strength and speed. They are rare; make a note of them particularly.
Now apply all this to the type of racing that concentrates the cards at this time – novice races – and you have the most critical element of all.
You can only guess who is ready; who loves what ground; so, too, the trainer can’t be certain. But some with a degree of certainty will shorten in the market; some with a strong element of concern attached to them will drift.
Novices by their very nature are learning the trade, and trainers are learning about them, too, as they go along. They get paid for it; you don’t.
FOLLOW-THE-MARKET HOOFNOTE: There were five consecutive winning favourites at Cork yesterday; five all day at Kelso, including two joint.
For ‘mudbath’ read ‘bloodbath’, as both Daqman and Pricewise were beaten (0-0) for the third day running.
BEST TILL LAST AT MUSSELBURGH?
⭕ 3.15 Musselburgh The Scottish card looks very tricky on Monday but it might be worth waiting for the final bumper for the best bet on the card.
The experience of Sin A Bhfuil should count for plenty and the Irish raider can land the prize.
He has three creditable runs at Punchestown already to his name including on testing ground but it was perhaps his latest run that stacks up best from a form perspective. He finished third (beaten 8 1/2 lengths) to the Gordon Elliott trained odds-on favourite Hollow Games and is unlikely to bump into anything of that calibre in this event.
There’s been a little bit of early money on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE for debutant Ritson but his trainer Rebecca Menzies doesn’t do especially well in this sphere.
Of those who have run, the biggest danger could come from fellow Irish rider Jinty who shaped well enough on debut but the break since is a little concerning.
ROSE TO BLOOM
⭕ 4.55 Chelmsford The two divisions of the long distance handicap have both thrown up a Monday bet for me.
In the first div, I like the look of Aria Rose for Mike Murphy who is in good form with three winners from his last 11 runners.
His runner here is tried in new headgear for this but it’s the step up trip that’s the real positive for me as he attempts this distance for the first time on the all-weather. He was staying on well over 1m 4f at Southwell last time out when third to Grimsthorpe Castle and should relish this extra yardage.
Celtic Classic looks very short in the market given he remains without a win this year and Paul and Oliver Cole’s recent form has just dipped from their impressive highs.
FULBECK LOOKS A FULL BACK
⭕ 5.25 Chelmsford Fulbeck Girl looks to have solid claims after going close in her last two starts over similar trips at Wolverhampton and here at Chelmsford.
She was only headed deep inside the final furlong last time out in a race that didn’t look any tougher than this one.
Aldrich Boy looks the obvious danger after a big run on his handicap debut at Kempton but this is quite a big increase in distance.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) SIN A BHFUIL (3.15 Musselburgh)
BET 2.7pts win ARIA ROSE (4.55 Chelmsford)
BET 4.7pts win FULBeCK Girl (5.25 Chelmsford)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
