GOLDEN RULES: BETDAQ VALUE After your homework on the runners last night, you may be snatching your breakfast/lunch with a check on the offers. BETDAQ provides an in-depth approach in betting articles but, if you are short of time, try Daqman’s quick go-to guide to value below.
DAQMAN HUNTS HIDDEN HORSES The search for value is made easier with the percentages in your favour on BETDAQ, as Daqman looks for the hidden horses at Carlisle, Lingfield and Newcastle. Can you do better?
VALUE-A-GO-GO IN BETDAQ OFFERS
Follow the golden rules. I opened a debate on this last week, just in time to put one of them into practice in Saturday’s Grand National Trial.
I fancied Fontaine Collonges but, as happens so many times, the stable’s 18-1 ‘second string,’ Quick Wave, won it.
Fortunately, I followed the rule – you must back or save on the ‘second string’ – what’s more I had it at the morning 24.0 on BETDAQ.
In fact, I was applying two golden rules. Not only the ‘second string’ rule but the BETDAQ role of value, where total percentages are really low.
In such a race (marked clearly above the list of offers) the value is intrinsic in all the horses in the race. You could back them all, and lose very little.
But you are looking for the one – or more – with offers that really stand out or are simply better than you’d expect.
You are always seeing ‘expected result’ or ‘expected goals’ in assessments of the outcome of other sporting events. Do it yourself for racing and betting.
GO through the form and decide, say, the race is between four horses only. Theoretically each one has a 25% chance at this stage; that’s 3-1 or 4.0 on the exchange.
GO through the stats, the going, the trainer form and jockey form, and give each one a confidence rating. Now re-price the four from what you ‘expect’ from ‘running’ the race in your head:
If one feels ‘hotter’ than you thought, cut the price you need from 3-1 to 2-1; but you must now extend the others according to ‘strength.’
GO to the BETDAQ offers and match ‘I want’ about horses A, B, C and D against ‘I am offered’ like this:
A: 2-1 IW; I’m offered 2.98
B: 4-1 IW; I’m offered 8.9
C: 5-1 IW; I’m offered 5.5
D: 8.1 IW; I’m offered 26.0
Verdict Two of my four (horses A and C) are round about the price I was looking for and I may or may not back them or save on them.
But one (horse B) is a stand-out: almost double, And the fourth (D) is almost treble.
DISCARD horse D at this stage; he was 9.9 when the market opened and has drifted to 26.0.
BACK horse B who is overpriced in the offer.
HOLD on horses A and C; I could get better later on, particularly if B reduces in price.
Try to see the list again closer to the ‘off’; try to see the early part of the race; there may be a bet in running. In fact, it’s another golden rule to ‘keep your Daq up’.
Even if you don’t dabble further, the action on the track and in the market will provide huge lessons on what to back, and how to back it, in future.
THE CHEQUE IS IN THE POST..
⭕ 3.15 Carlisle The in-form yard of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have been to five different tracks in the last year or so with Post Chaise and the grey has never been out of the frame.
He’s climbed 22lb all told but this leap in class today has him right down the handicap again, racing off 10st 4lb, and going his favoured way round, right-handed.
It was a grade lower than today at Kempton when Tile Tapper ran up to the Newbury Gold Cup second, Remastered.
But his only winning form over obstacles was when novice chasing at Chepstow last February over half a mile shorter, and he has to give 20lb to Post Chaise.
And the main threat to the favourite may be Enqarde, who is down to the rating of his last winning form a grade higher at Haydock. He hasn’t been finishing his races and wind surgery could help him return to form.
The Spring horse, Skelton-raider Dog Of War (a big drifter), prefers a sound surface and Lord Roco has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.4 Post Chaise 9.6 Enqarde
SHERBORNE CAN GO TO TOWN
⭕ 4.10 Lingfield Sherborne is the ‘hidden horse’ here. Named after the nearest town to the Tizzard stables, he could have the locals raising a glass tonight.
When Sherborne won impressively over the Lingfield CD 15 months ago, he was hit with a rating of 115. He couldn’t cope with that nor did he fulfill expectations – they thought a lot of him – over fences.
Down 20lb on that harsh rating and now returned to the scene of his success, Sherborne is ridden by Brendan Powell, who has landed three prizes for Joe Tizzard in the last 10 days or so.
BETDAQ value 7.8 Sherborne
I’M NAPPING OTTO AND OISIN
⭕ 7.00 Newcastle Oisin Murphy has had a winner in Qatar from three Doha rides since returning to the saddle in England with success from his only mount at Chelmsford last week.
Tonight at Newcastle is his first full meeting, with six booked rides in consecutive races.
Otto Oyl is his first reunion ride with Lambourn trainer Archie Watson, for whom he had a stunning record. From 224 mounts, he rode 56 winners (25%), 45 seconds and 17 thirds (overall 53%).
Otto Oyl won three out of five in his best sequence last year, lifting his rating 10lb.
After his run back nine days ago, the rating is now dropped 16lb since November.
BETDAQ value 4.4 Otto Oyl (nap)
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.15 Carlisle (each to win 12)
BET 5pts win POST CHAISE
BET 1.4pts win ENQARDE
4.10 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 3pts win SHERBORNE
7.00 Newcastle (win 20 nap)
BET 5.75pts win OTTO OYL
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
