O’BRIEN PASSES GUINEAS TESTS: It’s a Classic. The long-running story of Ballydoyle continued yesterday when both Guineas trials at Leopardstown fell to Aidan O’Brien favourites. Daqman, who forecast the outcome, looks at what it means.
TODAY: Daqman keeps the stakes low heading to Newcastle for his nap.
IT’S A NEVER-ENDING STORY
O’BRIEN’S BACK: Two out of three strikes in the Classic tests at Leopardstown yesterday were enough of a warning for Ballydoyle ante-post leaders to remain firm or harden in the markets.
Hans Andersen’s success in the 2,000 Guineas Trial (‘comfortably’) was a boost for Auguste Rodin for the real thing at Newmarket.
And Never Ending Story, though easy to back at 2-1, won the 1,000 Guineas Trial by the same margin (‘going away’), persuading bookies to Meditate on the stable’s threat to Tahiyra in the real thing next month.
But odds-on Alexandroupolis was foiled for an O’Brien stable clean sweep when Cork raider White Birch at 22-1 brushed him aside in the Ballysax middle-distance test.
O’Brien had taken the Ballysax four years in a row, among his winners Broome (2019), before his son, Donnacha, broke the mould last year.
He’d had the same winning sequence in the 2,000 Guineas Trial before Jim Bolger’s back-to-back wins (2021-22), which included subsequent Newmarket Classic winner, Poetic Flare.
Never Ending Story was following the same trial win by Hydrangea (2017) who would become British Champion (Fillies and Mares) for O’Brien.
Though cut to a single-figure price for Newmarket, Never Ending Story is likely to be even hotter for the Irish equivalent, which would be the normal route for a supposed second string.
Similarly, Hans Andersen most likely goes for the French or Irish Guineas, then the French Derby.
ALL SYSTEMS GO
⭕ 1.30 Ludlow Magical Maggie and Gaye Legacy have the race between them according to the Betdaq Betting Exchange market but there are question marks over both.
Such is the way the pair have compressed the betting it does offer value elsewhere – in this case Stopherandgo. She’s capable of throwing in the odd bad run but purely on the basis of her Wincanton 40/1 win last month she comes right into this. I’ll try a WIN 10 from the Betdaq place market with a cheeky same return stake on the win market – just in case …
Magical Maggie also races under a penalty having won three of her six races under rules. The big concern with her is whether she has gone backwards? She’s been beaten 32 and 31 lengths in her last two races and even allowing for them being in better company I’d liked to have seen a bit more sparkle before contemplating a short odds bet.
The maiden Gaye Legacy might be the biggest danger – she was only pipped at Warwick last time out on similar ground and her trainer Tom Symonds is in good form.
BEELZEBUB GETS NAP VOTE
⭕ 8.00 Newcastle The all-weather isn’t the best today. The afternoon card at Lingfield sees a mix of class 5’s and 6’s and it’s only marginally better at Newcastle this evening.
One race that does look of interest is the six furlong handicap at 8.00 where the handicapper has little to go on in the case of Beelzebub and Saracen Head who dominate the market on their handicap debuts.
Beelzebub is rated 1lb superior. The James Ferguson trained runner improved steadily in all three starts last season after a promising Newbury debut and he culminated with a win at Chelmsford. He looks the sort to improve further now in handicap company.
Saracen Head ran well over course and distance when second in February but was then disappointing at Wolverhampton where he finished a well beaten third behind the potentially smart Rabaah.
The runner-up from that race My Turn Now did little to advertise the form next time out and the fact that Saracen Head ran awkwardly tilt the scales here in favour of Beelzebub in a race where several of the runners have already had plenty of chances.
GLORIOUS FINALE
⭕ 8.30 Newcastle Glorious Rio can only be considered a speculative selection in the night cap as the previous seven time winner has only hinted at a return to that kind of form.
However he is a class dropper and has ran much better than his recent form figures of 35 and starting prices of 66/1 and 25/1 might suggest.
Beaten a length and half and two lengths in his most recent races at Southwell and Wolverhampton over five furlongs and seven furlongs – his trainer Stella Barclay now opts for the ‘in the middle’ six furlong trip tonight.
He gets a pound help from the handicapper and is preferred to top weight and likely favourite Murbih who has been kept busy but failed narrowly to defy the 5lb penalty here last week and has the same burden here over a longer trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Ludlow (win 10 from both WIN and PLACE MARKETS)
BET 1pt win and 6pts place STOPHERANDGO
8.00 Newcastle (win 10, nap)
BET 5.3pts win BEELZEBUB
8.30 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 2.1pts win GLORIOUS RIO
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