DAQMAN DEALS THREE SUNDAY ACES: Fortune Cookie and 5-2 nap! What a great day’s play for Daqman with three aces in a super Sunday hand from cards at Deauville and Pontefract. That’s six winners from the last 10 naps, 64 up this year, and hits for 17 Fortune Cookies with more to come at Goodwood this week.
Sunday Profit: 37.25 points
WON 5-2 ASTAPOR (nap)
WON 11-10 ELITE STATUS (Fortune Cookie)
WON 5-4 POKER FACE
TODAY: In the wake of Auguste Rodin’s shock defeat in Saturday’s King George, Daqman discovers a deteriorating Derby since the days of Golden Horn. Auguste Rodin’s flop was simply par for the course!
TOMORROW: The opening day of Glorious Goodwood.
THE DERBY DROPS LIKE A STONE
THERE is a greater shock than the demise of Auguste Rodin at Ascot. It is the dearth of Epsom Derby champions over the last eight years.
We’re talking about winners 7lb-20lb inferior to Golden Horn’s final rating of 130 after he won the Arc de Triomphe of 2015. The ratings at left are career finals (or the current figures in the case of the last three winners).
121 Harzand (2016) Beat a 108-rated runner-up at Epsom. Flopped in the Irish Champion Stakes and Arc de Triomphe the following year.
119 Wings of Eagles (2017) Beat a 107–rated in the Epsom Derby; only third to 113 winner in the Irish Derby.
117 Masar (2018) Beat 110-rated at Epsom. Out of the frame twice the following year at Group-2 level.
122 Anthony Van Dyck (2019) Beat a 113-rated at Epsom. Form afterwards: 203302012P, winning only a Group 2.
110 Serpentine (2020) made all, beating 99-rated runner-up. Form afterwards 4400000002020.
120 Adayar (2021) beat unrated colt at Epsom but won the King George; however, declined afterwards, taking a three-horse class 2 conditions race and a five-runner Group 3.
123 Desert Crown (2022) fragile sort; almost a year off after beating 105-rated at Epsom, until ran Hukum to half a length in a Group 3 in May; not seen since.
123 August Rodin (2023) talked up as Triple Crown horse, flopped in the Guineas and trailed in last in the King George, with the then 101-rated he beat at Epsom, King Of Steel, failing to stay, only third.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Fears about the form of this year’s Derby have proved justified, with even Hukum, though he beat the Derby one-two, pitched as big as 8-1 for the Arc de Triomphe.
Equinox (Japan), who easily beat Saturday’s King George head second, Westover, at Meydan, may not even go to Paris; bigger prizes could lure him to the Breeders Cup.
France now seizes the initiative: Chantilly Derby winner, Ace Impact, leads their pack but Feed The Flame has already beaten both the Irish Derby runner-up and the Epsom Oaks winner in a grand prix, and the Chantilly Oaks heroine Blue Rose Cen is as short as even money for the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood this week.
*TOMORROW: Goodwood preview and first day.
SONGO TOPS THE CHARTS
⭕ 2.10 Newton Abbot Songo won very easily over course and distance on his hurdling debut last month and has been found an easy opportunity to follow up by trainer Milton Harris.
A multiple winner on the flat, Songo started odds-on for his first start over timber and despite some patchy jumping had far too much class and won easily by 11 lengths. He should come on for that run and whilst the race he won wasn’t that competitive I’m not sure this one is either.
Form figures don’t always tell the full story. Chief rival Donnie Azoff has finished second and third in his last two races but they were two and three runner races! Connections will be hoping the switch back to the smaller obstacles will conjure up some improvement.
CONTIGO LOOKS CONTAGEOUS
⭕ 5.52 Lingfield It’s very hard to get away from Bailar Contigo in the opener at Lingfield. The Stuart Williams trained filly is seeking a hat-trick tonight and the trainer has wisely run her again quickly before the handicapper has his say.
She won with such ease at Bath last week to suggest she is surely ahead of the handicapper and despite her statutory 6lb penalty incurred for the win can go in again.
She again gets the quick ground she seems to relish and has a very relaxed style to her racing – setting a strong pace and travels well. With the trainer remaining in good form she can account for the frustrating Coloane who remains a maiden after 11 starts despite several podium finishes. She was beaten at odds on at Wolverhampton last time out but has been pushed up a pound in the weights for that defeat.
This race shouldn’t take much winning and looks at the mercy of Bailar Contigo with perhaps the biggest danger coming from the lightly raced Storm Valley trained by Andrew Balding. This one ran better on her handicap debut at Epsom earlier this month and might be seen to better effect now she is dropped slightly in distance. She is one of the very few that you could consider progressive types in this handicap.
TEAM WILLIAMS AGAIN
⭕ 8.32 Lingfield I am sticking with Stuart Williams in the finale too. His runner here Arbaawi looks a value alternative to the strong Betdaq Betting Exchange favourite Morning Colours.
Arbaawi remains open to further improvement, especially over this longer trip which he tackles for the first time. He didn’t get the clearest of runs here a couple of weeks ago but was staying on strongly at the end of the six furlongs suggesting this extra furlong should prove more optimal.
Morning Colours finished second in the same race but I’m not certain will confirm that form over this trip. She lost ground at the start that day and will need to be more on her toes if she is going to reward short price favourite backers.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
2.10 Newton Abbot (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win SONGO
5.53 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 6.6pts win BAILAR CONTIGO
8.32 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win ARBAAWI
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