11-2 DAQMAN WINNER: Daqman paid for the day yesterday, as planned, with Greek Canyon (WON 11-2). Today he looks at the big race at Chantilly, after a near-miss Sunday nap in the Grand Prix at Longchamp.
BETDAQ RACES TONIGHT: There are strong pointers from the stats for each of the three BETDAQ-sponsored races at Windsor tonight. But will the stats work out? Daqman decides in his race-by-race analysis.
IT LOOKS A PRESTIGE JEAN PRAT
A tantalising Group 1 in the mud. John Gosden’s Prix Jean Prat winner, Torrential (1995), seems an appropriate name for the wet weather that has condemned this year’s race to be run at Chantilly on heavy ground.
Gosden tries a belated follow-up 19 years on with Muwaary who, when he won at Newbury in April, was thought Classic material but runners from the race all proved to be handicappers, some of them losing handicappers at that.
However, Muwaary was a cut above them, several notches in fact: he went on to run a creditable fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas and was runner-up to Mustajeeb (same ownership) in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Racereaders said he needed top of the ground. Racereaders said he would return to a mile. Gosden’s sending him to Chantilly today over a mile on heavy, suggesting they were only half right but a bet is risky.
Prestige Vendome, knocked back by a wide draw in the French Derby, finished nearer to their Guineas winner than did Muwaary, closing him down on a previous first-time-out run behind the same horse.
The Prix Djebel winner, Charm Spirit, was fifth to Night Of Thunder, Kingman and Australia in the Newmarket Guineas but noticeably was unable to quicken in last autumn’s Grand Criterium, his only race on the soft.
The line to the English raiders – suggesting there is not much between them – is Shifting Power, just ahead of Charm Spirit when fourth in the Newmarket Guineas and then splitting Kingman and Mustajeeb in the Curragh version.
Mustajeeb had run about 5lb better than Muwaary in the Jersey Stakes, whereas he was around 4lb better than Shifting Power in the Irish Guineas.
On the ground, I fancy Prestige Vendome (1.50 Chantilly), whose trainer targets today’s race and has won it three times before.
Probably unlucky not to win the French Guineas (almost got back up), then drawn out on the chateau lawn and no chance in the French Derby.
MOORE MAGIC ON BETDAQ WINDSOR CARD
7.30 Windsor (Betdaq £25 No Lose Free Bet EBF Stallion Maiden Stakes)
High numbers won both sprints (stalls 11 and 13) at the BETDAQ Windsor meeting last Monday and, in this race last year, 10 beat 8 and 9 (11 ran). However, this time around, the ones coming out of those stalls are all at big prices and are likely to struggle in this, despite this looking like a relatively weak maiden.
Heartbreak Hero is the most obvious choice having finished second behind Belardo at Yarmouth last time out. Belardo then went on to finish fourth behind Ivawood in the July Stakes at Newmarket last week so the form looks to be solid enough and he will be hard to beat for Ryan Moore and William Haggas.
Of the others, there is very little form to go on with so many newcomers. Richard Hannon’s Crafty Choice is likely to well primed for a good effort here first time out and having cost 70,000gns he is likely to be fit enough for this one.
Likewise for Accra Beach who represents Roger Charlton and is a half brother to six winners.
They will all need to be decent enough to be able to catch Heartbreak Hero though and he is the likely victor in the opening BETDAQ race on the card.
8.00 Windsor (Betdaq 3% Commission Fillies’ Handicap)
Three-year-olds are going for a five-timer over the older horses in this. Joys of Spring, Tullia and Rayoumti look to hold the key to this one, all 3 year olds.
Joys of Spring was introduced on a handicap mark of 74 after finishing second behind Abseil in a Yarmouth Maiden in April. Although that looked like very strong form after Abseil won impressively at Epsom, he failed to follow up on his two subsequent runs, when upped in class, at Royal Ascot and Newmarket. So I would have a slight question mark over the form.
Tullia is another that could be a little unexposed however, there is a big reservation on whether or not she will like the quicker ground. All of her best runs have come on soft and when faced with Good to firm ground, she could only finish sixth behind Token of Love in a Newmarket Handicap. She may be able to sneak into a place however.
My selection will go to Rayoumti. A course and distance winner two weeks ago in a Class 5 Handicap, she steps in slightly in class this evening. When faced with Class 4 rivals previously, it was on soft ground and that can be discounted. Martin Harley takes the ride for George Margarson and could have more to give in today’s conditions running off bottom and with a nice draw.
8.30 Windsor (Betdaq The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap)
William Muir has dominated this race since its inception, with two wins out of two, neither of them favourite. He runs Avocadeau in this year’s renewal who looked like a step up in trip should suit after his last run at Yarmouth. He is raised in grade here and could struggle against the top three who looked the classiest of the six.
Tears of the Sun ran out of room in a decent contest at Chester last time out and was eased heavily to finish fifth. She has won twice already with one win coming over a mile a half so the step back up from a mile and two should suit and this could be good compensation for an unlucky defeat last time out.
Ganges and Solidarity both have strong chances in what could prove to be a tactical race with no true front runner.
Tears of the Sun may just have a little more class dropping back in grade and can win the final BETDAQ race on the card.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet is staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.3pts win PRESTIGE VENDOME (1.50 Chantilly
BET 19.6pts win (Nap) HEARTBREAK HERO (7.30 Royal Windsor)
BET 2.9pts win and place RAYOUMTI (8.00 Royal Windsor)
BET 8.9pts win TEARS OF THE SUN (8.30 Royal Windsor)
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