20-1, 12-1 AND 10-1 ALL PAY OFF FOR FEARLESS DAQMAN: Daqman was right there at the last with 20-1 shot Mon Lino in the Leinster National at Naas on Sunday. Three bulls-eye bets in two days, all win-and-place, all in the frame at big prices, all picks from ‘nowhere’ form, were a warning of Daqman’s intentions over the four days of Cheltenham, starting tomorrow.
WON 12-1 ASSIMILATION (from 18.5 BETDAQ) Pulled up the last day
3RD 20-1 MON LINO Form figures: 040
3RD 10-1 MARIE’S DIAMOND Pulled up the last day
CHELTENHAM: ON THE BRINK OF 1,000 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman is now 544 points ahead of Pricewise, with 327 points from separate stakes on his bull’s-eye bets and 114 from his naps, giving him a total of 985 points plus 11 from his Fortune Cookies. So on the very brink of 1,000 points profit for the season on the eve of Cheltenham.
THE GOLD CUP LOOKS STRONG WITH AN A-TEAM OF EIGHT: Daqman’s usual ABC Guide to Friday’s Gold Cup becomes rare analysis of an ‘A’ team of eight contenders, all satisfying the main stats. There’s a ratings dead-heat at the top, closely followed by an improver, a plus horse who should go close. Such quality in quantity of young horses makes for a very strong race.
PHOTO FINISH IN GOLD RUSH
⚠️ HEADS UP: Here’s the ‘A’ team for Friday’s Gold Cup in ratings order. ALL those in black type fit the stats, each stat applicable 90 to 100% of the time in the decade: Grade-1 winners with course form, aged between seven and nine, with at least one chase win at 3m or more.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Cheltenham Gold Cup)
🏇 175 AL BOUM PHOTO (Willie Mullins) The 2019 winner had a rating of only 159 for his prep race and lined up for the Gold Cup off 164 with half a dozen in front of him in the market, Willie Mullins admitting afterwards he was ‘only third or fourth in the stable pecking order’ for the race.
Paul Townend got him into a good galloping rhythm but critics will point out that the placed horses, Anibale Fly and Bristol de Mai, have failed to score since and the fourth, Native River, though a winner twice, has been dropped 5lb to 168.
🏇 175 KEMBOY (Willie Mullins) A four-timer in 2018, launched at the Punchestown Spring Festival, was completed in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown in the December, but the sequence was interrupted on the big day when he fell at the first in the 2019 Gold Cup, a shorter price than the winner.
He got straight back on track at Aintree (Bowl) and Punchestown (Gold Cup) but fluffed his lines on his Christmas return when favourite for a Savills repeat. Closed down the same winner, Delta Work, when second in the Irish Gold Cup but the handicapper docked him 2lb for those two defeats.
🏇 171+ DELTA WORK (Gordon Elliott) Resisted Kemboy’s strong pressure to win the Irish Gold Cup in hood and tongue-tie, improving on his Savills success but helped by Kemboy’s jumping errors.
RSA third and Punchestown Champion Novice in 2019, he’s won six of eight chase starts, steadily improving a few pounds every time he’s run since coming to prominence in the Drinmore of 2018.
The only one in the race who deserves a ‘plus’ on his rating, which almost certainly equates to the 173 or 175 of his nearest rivals.
🏇 173 CLAN DES OBEAUX Fifth to Al Boum Photo in the 2019 Gold Cup, fell out of favour after subsequent defeats at Aintree (beaten nine lengths by Kemboy in the Bowl) and Down Royal (Ladbrokes Champion Chase runner-up, beaten favourite).
Belied his drop of 4lb in the ratings by trouncing the flavour of the month, 5-4 favourite, Cyrname, 21 lengths on Boxing Day to land back-to-back wins in the King George, storming clear as a seeming stronger horse than the previous year, when he had pipped Thistlecrack.
🏇 173 Lostintranslation Beat Defi Du Seuil on part of the Gold Cup course on New Year’s Day, 2019, and has been first or second since (still standing), the only real blot on his CV when pulled up with a breathing problem in the King George on Boxing Day.
He had landed a treble when taking the Lancashire Chase at Haydock in a duel with Bristol de Mai, who was trying to complete a hat-trick in the race.
🏇 171 Santini RSA runner-up a year ago showed the benefit of wind surgery when staying on well to assert over Bristol De Mai in the Cotswold Chase over 3m 1.5f of the Gold Cup course in January.
🏇 170 Bristol De Mai Kept his 170 rating after failing little more than three lengths to stop Santini, giving him 2lb, but the handicapper – and the Nicky Henderson Press partisans – felt obliged to deify Santini, who has had more wind surgery since and has to prove that he stays and deserves to be a gold-club member.
🏇 166 Presenting Percy Pertemps Final winner and RSA winner, a notable Cheltenham double, but did not go on from there. Gold Cup eighth and beaten by Delta Work in his last two chases.
ALSO: 🏇 168 Monalee not won a 3m chase; 🏇 165 Chris’s Dream, 🏇 164 Real Steel and 🏇 161 Elegant Escape have not won at Grade-1 level.
WISE UP TO WISDOM
⭕ 2.10 Stratford The meeting is well attended as the crowds for nearly Cheltenham can’t resist some bonus action.
Elysian Flame can get the week off to a good start by winning the opener. The Mick Easterby trained runner ran a cracker on his jumping debut when finishing third to Botox Has at Cheltenham and was then sent off a 6/1 chance for a Grade 1 at Chepstow next time out.
He looked outclassed there, beaten 26 lengths, but wasn’t disgraced and needless to say this is a far easier and possibly more realistic target.
The ground shouldn’t be a problem as he was twice a winner on the flat on heavy at Haydock and Hamilton and showed some class too at York when runner-up in a class 2 handicap.
Ga Law made a winning start in France but the race didn’t look to amount to much and he has to give weight away here as does The Pink’n who hasn’t really progressed since winning a hurdle at Newton Abbot on good ground and there are going concerns with him.
⭕ 3.10 Plumpton Just the four runners now in this class 3 with the defection of Good And Hardy.
The emphasis will totally be on stamina over the 3m 1f trip on heavy ground and it’s no surprise to see the two course and distance winners Age Of Wisdom and Tambura disputing favouritism.
Dealing with the two other runners first.
Minella Daddy hasn’t raced since June 2019 and his record coming back after a 100+ day break is:
🗓️ 200 days Beaten 56 lengths
🗓️ 390 days Beaten 61 lengths
🗓️ 139 days Beaten 2 1/2 lengths
🗓️ 139 days Beaten 11 1/2 lengths
So, after a 269 day break you would have to assume he may need the run.
Puppet Warrior has yet to win in 14 career starts but was still in contention in the race won by Age Of Wisdom over course and distance last month. The handicapper has kept him on the same mark and Tabitha Worsley rides again.
Age Of Wisdom’s win in the end was comfortable enough, suggesting the 5lb hike in the weights can be contained as connections look to press the repeat button. That was his first effort over this longer trip and the form was given a boost when third placed Little Boy Boru was beaten a short head into second at Huntingdon last week.
That leaves Tambura as our biggest danger. He ran well over course and distance in January and Bryony Frost rides for the first time today. His course and distance win came when racing off today’s mark of 120 and he has a clear chance but I think the form of Age Of Wisdom is slightly stronger and he might be a little more sprightly, given he is three years younger than Tambura.
⭕ 7.40 Wolverhampton (Ladbrokes Handicap) Rocketeer has struggled for a first win and I was taken by the performance of Gmasha last time out at Lingfield.
Despite starting at 25/1 she showed her first signs of ability and doesn’t look too harshly treated here on her handicap debut.
Will go for a WIN 10 return in both the win and place markets.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 5.0pts win ELYSIAN FLAME (2.10 Stratford)
BET 5.4pts win (nap) AGE OF WISDOM (3.10 Plumpton)
BET 2.0pts win and 6.2pts place GMASHA (7.40 Wolverhampton)
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