WELL DONE, HURRICANE! BUT THERE’S A SPRINTER ON YOUR TAIL: Daqman reckons that Sprinter Sacre could make it 12 Grade-1 wins by the end of the season and put himself in line to challenge Hurricane Fly’s world record, achieved at Punchestown yesterday.
BANKER AT PLUMPTON TODAY: Daqman finds two good offers about horses that are likely to be wound up for their reappearance run, hoping one of them will pay for a maximum-stakes banker nap.
SIRE CHELTENHAM SLIP PUTS THE CHAMPION ON TOP OF THE WORLD
Sprinter Sacre could Fly past the world record. Currently on 10 wins in a row – seven Grade 1 – the Champion Chase winner at both Cheltenham and Punchestown is still only seven, going on eight.
It’s hard to see what can stop another Grade-1 five-timer, starting in the Tingle Creek at Sandown next month, which would take him within sight of Hurricane Fly’s new world record 17 in 2014-15, with a season in hand.
The latest hyped challenger to his two-mile crown bit the dust at Cheltenham yesterday, when Sire De Grugy was put in his place by Kid Cassidy.
I don’t begrudge the Kid his win under yet another inspired ride by Tony McCoy, but Sire De Grugy was never at the races as a potential champion.
Sire De Grugy had landed a hat-trick and was talked up in the Press and, notably, on Channel-4, as the next big thing.
But, for me, he was no odds-on shot in yesterday’s Shloer Chase, even in the small but not very select field. Here was my reasoning.
He’d been beaten more than 25 lengths at Aintree by Special Tiara, who was behind him in the betting yesterday, although 5lb better off.
The race that set him up as a ‘star’ was the Celebration Chase he won at Sandown but it was a poor result for a 2m speed test on good ground, since the next four home were aged 10 (three of them) and 11, and they collectively failed in five races after.
Sire De Grugy completed his hat-trick by beating a horse that finished 51 lengths behind the winner in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Kid Cassidy had been a clear second in the Grand Annual at the same festival meeting (with another of yesterday’s rivals, Oiseau De Nuit, behind) but, notably kinky in the Spring, had had a wind operation in the close season.
Nicky Henderson knew something was wrong. Quite what, he wasn’t sure. But the op, and one or two other adjustments, have straightened out the wayward Kid.
As the horse once electrocuted in the Newbury-parade-ring fiasco, and near death again after an horrific fall at Lingfield, he was entitled to be a bit mental.
But Tony McCoy could not have had him quite so far out of his ground yesterday, if there wasn’t some considerable confidence behind the Henderson cures.
Yes, the race was a good example of the McCoy stealth and tactics but the great champion, not merely out of typical modesty, was quick to transfer the credit to Kid Cassidy, who did it smooth as you like, jumping well and going past the favourite up the hill without turning a hair.
Admittedly he was getting 10lb from the winner. But I am not going to bet on a turn-around in form at level weights. I am going to bet that the Kid goes from strength to strength now and that Sire De Grugy is not, nor ever was, 169 to 150 superior, as official ratings suggested before they lined up yesterday.
Yes, I was a coward – I’d been out of form – and I didn’t lay Sire De Grugy or back up (with the nap) any new-found belief in Kid Cassidy. But I’m heartened to get something right.
The only thing that worries me about the Kid is that he now faces the same intolerable kind of hype, as the horse that loves Cheltenham, the kinky one who bounced back and beat the ‘new star’ Sire De Grugy.
Worries? Intolerable? Maybe not. For, from such hype are odds-on shots born and, in odds-on shots, we have the perfect lays.
Don’t believe what you don’t see with your own eyes or know from your own understanding of the game. Don’t doff your cap to any racing pundit and call him Sire! Not even me.
TODAY’S RACING: THOMAS AND GOOCHY CAN GO IN FIRST TIME BACK
2.40 Leicester Lightly-raced lightweights like Dell’Arca yesterday are meat and drink to the shrewd punter but exposed horses low down a more moderate affair like this are usually duffers.
No winner carried less than 10st 11lb in the last nine seasons, and only one was over the age of six. So we’re looking for youth and a bit of class in the top half of this class-3 handicap.
It will be a tricky day on the undulating Leicester track, with rain sweeping down the country on to firm ground at the Oadby venue.
Pippa Greene is nine now, and the Kid Cassidy yard needs to work another miracle. Zafranagar seemed back to form at Wetherby and Canadian Diamond was happy with hill country at Cheltenham.
But the one I like for a pound is Santo Thomas, from Venetia William’s stable in form and with an excellent strike rate at Leicester.
Santo Thomas is a horse that doesn’t stand much training and has to be ‘got up’ for a one-off, which tactics have succeeded the last twice. He won at Southwell after two months’ off and Towcester following a year away.
You have to go for it and get it right first time with such a horse, and I was glad to take 9.2 on BETDAQ this morning, as one of my first positions on the day.
2.50 Plumpton A similar situation, with all three winners of this since its inception in 2010 youngsters winning from the top half of the handicap, none over the age of six, and all set between 11st 5lb and 11st 9lb.
Our Phyli Vera has been frightened of hurdles so far and gave ‘Choc’ Thornton that injury fall but confidence in her training programme since has taken her to the front of the market for this.
Hoever, she is still only four, and she hasn’t been out since April, so I’m not convinced that today is the day.
If the rains have not arrived by the time of this race, CD-winner Superciliary could play a part. On the other hand, if it rains, Definite Lady’s chance is improved.
But the mare Goochypoochyprader seems to act on any going and improved nearly a stone inside a month in three races in the Spring. More importantly for today, she started her run of success with a win won on this course first time back after 10 months off.
Banker bet Uxizandre’s mistake at Plumpton was a one-off and before that, and since then, he’s jumped superbly at home.
But that error, and the return to form of Funny Star after a wind op, meant that I could get the equivalent of 4-5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Since Uxizandre (1.20 Plumpton) was a Graded-level hurdler, I take him to pitch me back into the rough and tumble and find my feet again after a none-too-happy Cheltenham Open Meeting. I can’t see Funny Star being strong enough to take on McCoy and Uxizandre.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) UXIZANDRE (1.20 Plumpton)
BET 2.5pts win SANTO THOMAS (2.40 Leicester)
BET 5pts win GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER (2.50 Plumpton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win double and 1pt win treble UXIZANDRE (1.20 Plumpton), SANTO THOMAS (2.40 Leicester) and GOOCHYPOOCHYPRADER (2.50 Plumpton)
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