THREE MORE HITS FOR DAQMAN: Three more winners for Daqman yesterday, including Sioux Nation (WON 2-1) in the big two-year-old test, the Phoenix Stakes, at The Curragh, where he opened with another juvenile winner. His three were:
WON 2-1 SIOUX NATION
WON 5-4 MENDELSSOHN
WON 1-1 BOREAGH LASS
SO, ANOTHER PRICEWISE SCALP: Sioux Nation took yet another Pricewise scalp, bringing the scores to 68-12 with Daqman 307 points clear of his value-betting rival to single-unit stakes.
PLAY THE FIELD FOR PROFIT YIELD
Bet to win the race! That’s my advice at this time of the year. Do it by using the full arsenal of weapons that win you money ONLY on BETDAQ.
Reserve a top-odds tilt for the big-field major races, like Saturday’s Great St Wilfrid, but, in the bread-and-butter races, set yourself an attainable target profit and use the simple skills available in your BETDAQ tools (see the many explanations in Betdaq Tips), backing or laying more than one horse to your overall fixed-profit yield.
Open your strategy by taking a position on something which seems value in the morning. It doesn’t have to be a big price. It could be fairly short, like the 27-10 on offer about Mendelssohn yesterday. The SP was half that.
I thought it might be. I used what I call ‘advance hindsight’ .. You imagine what the result might be and work backwards to the offers, comparing them with your envisaged SP. It’s an instant ‘pricing up.’
Had Mendelssohn been odds on in the morning, would you have backed it? As it was, supposed strong opposition set up his 27-10 offers for us, thankyou very much.
Thunder Snow also looked ‘huge’ at Deauville, as I put it, at 5.9 (that’s 49-10). He was, indeed ‘huge’, beaten a short head and a neck at 17-10 favourite.
My point here is that, as he closed right down in price, the winner and second, Al Wukair (4-1 SP) and Inns Of Court (151-10), became eminently backable. If you’d been on Thunder Snow early, you could have played the race, knowing you had ‘overs’ the favourite.
You know you are in a punter-friendly race if the odds add up to an overround of 110% or less. Since that’s most of the time with BETDAQ, you know you are getting value very time when playing the offers.
I strongly advice playing like this in races of quality, where the horses run to their mark or are showing improvement (class 3 or better, the old class C). I never used to bet big below C level (I might drown!)
One word of advice about early-mouse offers. I may use a bit of hyperbole in calling something like 5.9 Thunder Snow ‘huge.’
If his price really had been huge, beyond all reason, I would have opposed him. Godolphin are often bigger than you’d expect (like Thunder Snow), because not a gambling outfit.
So be careful. If something looks ‘too big’ or is on the slide, steer clear early. With your ‘advance hindsight’, think to yourself ‘that 16-1 can’t be right for that stable; it wouldn’t start bigger than 10-1 (unless he’s a hidden horse on this occasion, form disguised)’.
Or as I would put it in my column: ‘Drifted like a lonely dog on a raft’ (totally friendless) and ‘went well over my betting weir’ (beyond the point where I think it value and worth a positional bet).
CULLING WORTH A BET
3.30 Ripon The best race at Ripon this afternoon is down to a field of just five after the defection of the probable favourite Eagle Creek.
Fujaira Bridge won his maiden over course and distance but has struggled since and is getting no respite from the handicapper who has kept the Roger Varian trained runner on a mark of 81, despite him finishing a 15 length last of six at Bath last time out.
It might not be fast enough for Helovaplan who seems to want it rattling quick to show his best and he has taken a big hike in the weights.
La Casa Tarifa is another course and distance winner but seems to have gone backwards since her win in April. She has failed to beat a single horse home in two subsequent starts at Nottingham and Goodwood and it’s a leap of faith to expect her to bounce back to form here.
With so many question marks around it might be worth relying on Richard Fahey’s class dropper Cullingworth who was a winner over this trip at Musselburgh in April and has since been campaigned at a higher level.
Although 7th of 12 in an Ascot handicap last time out he was beaten less than five lengths and wasn’t beaten far in previous starts either at Newmarket and York.
He’s been dropped a pound and his recent form is much better than his form figures would suggest at first glance.
5.50 Wolverhampton A three runner claimer wouldn’t normally be on my betting radar but when I think the prices are wrong I’m stepping in.
At 11.15am, BETDAQ prices it up as:
2.22 Funkadelic
2.98 Christmas Night
4.6 Sandama
Funkadelic looks a favourite to take on. He was particularly disappointing at York last time out when last of nine and didn’t get competitive at any stage. This is also his debut on the all-weather surface.
In contrast Christmas Night seems to be getting better and open to further improvement. He was a runner-up in a Leicester seller last time over six furlongs and should be suited by this drop back in trip.
Sandama was third in a Thirsk seller last time out over six but I’m not so convinced the step back in trip will suit her as much.
7.40 Windsor The Sir Mark Prescott trained Codicil bids for a hat-trick but has only scrambled home in both starts and his ‘sequence horses’ usually win with a bit up their sleeves.
Noble Manners won at Newmarket last time and will appreciate this longer trip and might prove a tough nut to crack.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points)
BET 8.8pts win (nap) CULLINGWORTH (3.30 Ripon)
BET 10.0pts win CHRISTMAS NIGHT (5.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 4.6pts win NOBLE MANNERS (7.40 Windsor)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
