HALFWAY HOUSE: TRAINERS ON THE MOVE: It’s halfway house in the Flat season. Who’s doing best? Today Daqman looks at the trainers with the best strike rates; tomorrow, the riders jockeying for top positions.
DAQMAN NAP LAUNCHES FOUR MEETINGS: Ayr, Killarney, Ripon and Windsor. Daqman has something to say about four meetings split between afternoon and evening. His first bet is his nap at Ripon.
WINNERS ELEMENTARY, WATSON
Ballydoyle has a black eye from the boys in blue. At the halfway house for the season, Godolphin is the team on the up, with Charlie Appleby the big improver among trainers of winners in England.
Already, Charlie has almost matched his 2016 total of 67 and is ahead of schedule to beat last year’s 100, with his strike-rate increased to an impressive 30%.
Despite boosting their totals in the last two seasons, John Gosden and Mark Johnston are on the up yet again this season.
The star find is Archie Watson, who has already passed last season’s total wins, maintaining his strike rate despite a bigger intake to his yard, which means more two-year-old runners.
Aidan O’Brien’s record in England has plunged down the hit parade, with a low, low 9% rate of success for Ballydoyle.
The top 10 trainers on percentage strike-rate (with O’Brien added for comparison) are, read across: total wins this year to date, trainer, last two years, percentage decrease or increase.
60 CHARLIE APPLEBY (100/67 totals last two years), 28%>30%
10 JEREMY NOSEDA (26/16 in last two years) 26%>27%
85 JOHN GOSDEN (130/128 in last two years), 23%>26%
62 WILLIAM HAGGAS (149/130 in last two years), 26%>22%
33 SAEED BIN SUROOR (60/57 in last two years), 23%>21%
50 ARCHIE WATSON (47 last year only), 21%>20%
143 MARK JOHNSTON (212/183 in last two seasons), 16%>19%
33 SIR MICHAEL STOUTE (82/109 in last two years), 22%>17%
58 ANDREW BALDING (91/104 in last two years), 15%>15%
108 RICHARD FAHEY (191/189 in last two years), 12%>14%
12 AIDAN O’BRIEN (32/28 in last two years) 21%>9%
HERE’S A NAP TO NOTE AT RIPON
3.50 Ripon Pipers Note, a winner six times at Ripon, has his best chance for some time, and the market speaks strongly in his favour (2.72 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write this morning).
He’s 9lb lower than for his last success, and holds Reputation and Gin In The Inn on form.
Flying Pursuit needs rain; Dubai One has never scored on turf; and Buccaneers Vault had to drop two grades lower than this to win at Thirsk in June.
HANDICAPPER’S HELP FOR KENT
4.05 Ayr High numbers in the draw win this every year, and three-year-olds have a 75% record. There’s no perfect match from the stats but they have two black marks for Presidential from the one stall.
Presidential also has two big plus marks: he has won three times since April and trainer Roger Fell, who picked up the Bunbury Cup on Saturday, currently has a 50% strike rate (3-6).
However, Presidential’s form figures beyond 7f are 023 in a very busy season so far of eight races, in which he’s been placed seven times.
Brother McGonagall has won three times since the first of June but his 10lb overall rise has taken him from class 5 to class 4 and now into class 2.
Though he’s used to this grade and ran eighth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, the handicapper has dropped Vale Of Kent back 6lb for the Mark Johnston team, currently striking at 24%.
Johnston also saddles Poet’s Society with a 7lb claimer trying to keep his weight down after three wins in five starts. His record in class 2 in the last two years is 00000000.
Mythical Madness, is raised 7lb for his return to form 10 days ago after 18 straight defeats.
Crownthorpe appeals more. He ran a cracker in the Ayr Silver Bowl and, sticking with the three-year-olds (they’ve won two of the last three runnings), I took 5.9 Vale Of Kent and 6.0 Crownthorpe, though their draws keep my stakes down.
NOSEDA IS TIPPED TWO WINS..
6.20 and 8.20 Windsor Jeremy Noseda, who is currently striking at 50% (2-4), has Jamie Spencer up on Garrus (6.20 novice stakes), who has been working well. The Noseda-Spencer combination is 29% on this course.
Two years ago, Tis Marvellous went on from this race to win the Robert Papin, and last season’s scorer was subsequent 2,000 Guineas runner-up, Tip Two Win.
Noseda returns Jus Pires to the CD of his success at Windsor last October. His reappearance run here prompts the application of blinkers but it was in a higher grade.
Know Your Limit is still a maiden and Twenty Times needs rain, so that Jus Pires rates an even-money chance here (strictly 1.95 on BETDAQ as I write).
Good saver for Garrus (9.0 offers), if you want some insurance. I never play a saver place bet with Noseda’s horses (except in big handicaps); he tends to win or lose; no in-between.
NULIFE IS TONIGHT’S OUTSIDER
7.30 Killarney Denis Gerard Hogan has farmed this race recently. He had three winners in a row in 2012-14, with form figures in the last six years of 1113-0.
He had three left in today but two have been declared reserves. That leaves us relying on Nulife (15.5 BETDAQ offers as I write) but ready to have a saver should one of the two others get into the race.
Nulife was only a length and a half off Bay Hill (winner of this in 2014) when they met at levels last Spring.
8.50 Windsor It’s worth staying for an intriguing getting-out stakes at Windsor. Can you resist a royal runner at this venue?
The Queen, who bred tonight’s filly, has some subtle names for her horses but for once I am baffled. Sharp Practice (2.78 on BETDAQ) is by Redoute’s Choice out of Momentary (Redoute was a French water colourist).
I’m guessing the name was booked for her and she finally gave up finding something to fit. I would have called it Spur Of The Moment.
Regina Pacis could be well in for her first handicap, and Hollydaze will try to play catch-me, but the money was for a hats-off finale.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.50 Ripon (win 20)
BET 11pts win (nap) PIPER’S NOTE
4.05 Ayr (each to win 20)
BET 5pts win CROWNTHORPE
BET 5pts win VALE OF KENT
6.20 Windsor (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win GARRUS
7.30 Killarney (win 20)
BET 1.25pts win and place NULIFE
8.20 Windsor (win 10)
BET 10pts win JUS PIRES
8.50 Windsor (win 20)
BET 11pts win SHARP PRACTICE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
