SPOTLIGHT ON CHELTENHAM OUTSIDERS: Daqman yesterday previewed the challenge of the festival favourites (Gold Cup Saves Cheltenham). Now today he’s checking out which races with which trainers the winning outsiders have come from.
29 POINTS OF ANTE-POST OVERS: Ante-post bets try to get prices and offers bigger than they reduce to during the countdown to the races and on the day. He already has 15.0 about a 6.0 offer and 34.0 about one now trading at an average of 12-1. That’s 29 points to play with.
CHELTENHAM STATS: Don’t forget to check out Daqman’s day by day, race by race stats pointers to Cheltenham (click below)
DAQMAN’S DOING HANDSTANDS
CHELTENHAM ante-post bets: Handstands in the Baring Bingham and Il Etait Temps in the Arkle have produced big ‘overs’ for Daqman.
Declared runners with betting movement (BETDAQ Sportsbook prices or Exchange offers taken, at left):
15.0 IL ETAIT TEMPS (now 6.0 on BETDAQ) Arkle Trophy tomorrow
34.0 HANDSTANDS (now 12-1 average) Baring Bingham on Wednesday
17.0 BROADWAY BOY (now 10-1 average) Brown Advisory, Wednesday
14.0 QUEBECOLS (now 12-1 average) Champion Bumper, Wednesday
14.0 ARGENTO BOY (now 12-1 average) Champion Bumper, Wednesday
11.0 NOBLE YEATS (now 9-1 average) Stayers Hurdle, Thursday
7.8 KING OF KINGSFIELD (now 6-1 average) County Hurdle, Friday
17.0 GENTLEMANSGAME (now 18-1 average) Gold Cup, Friday
12.0 DINOBLUE (now 1-1) Mares Chase, Friday; but switched from the Champion Chase.
Races for outsiders (13-year survey at SP):
Albert Bartlett 50-1, 33-1, 18-1, 16-1, 14-1
Arkle Novices Chase 33-1, 16-1
Baring Bingham 14-1
Boodles Juvenile Hurdle 80-1, 40-1; 33-1, 25-1 (twice), 18-1
Champion Bumper 25-1, 20-1
Champion Chase 11-1
Coral Cup 50-1, 28-1, 16-1, 14-1, 12-1
Champion Hurdle 16-1, 12-1
County Hurdle 33-1 (three times), 25-1, 20-1, 12-1, 11-1, 10-1 (twice)
Cross Country 16-1
Gold Cup 12-1
Grand Annual 28-1 (twice), 22-1, 20-1, 16-1, 14-1
Hunters Chase 25-1 and 16-1
Mares Hurdle 18-1, 11-1, 10-1
Mares Novices Hurdle 50-1
Martin Pipe 16-1, 14-1 (twice), 12-1 (twice) and 11-1
NH Challenge Cup 16-1, 14-1, 12-1
Pertemps Final 25-1, 10-1
Plate 14-1 and 12-1
Stayers Hurdle 33-1, 12-1 (twice), 10-1
Supreme Novices Hurdle 25-1
Triumph Hurdle 20-1, 12-1, 10-1
Turners Novices Chase 20-1
Ultima 14-1, 12-1, 11-1, 10-1 (twice)
Winning trainers of outsiders (10-1 or more SP in the 13-year survey): Gordon Elliott 14 wins, Willie Mullins 13, Paul Nicholls 10, Nicky Henderson 7, Henry De Bromhead 4, Tony Martin 4, Jonjo O’Neill 4, Dan Skelton 4, Gavin Cromwell 3, Noel Meade 3, Ben Pauling 3.
TAUNTON FIRST, THEN CHELTENHAM
⭕ 3.40 Taunton It’s always been a one of life’s unexplained mysteries why there is so much jumps racing on Cheltenham eve?
It’s not as if plenty of the jockeys have got to head to the Cotswolds and the last thing any jockey would want would be to pick up an injury 24 hours before the big meeting.
Answers on postcards please.
We have racing (jumps!) from Taunton, Plumpton and Stratford on Monday and I have bets from all three venues but it will be no surprise that I am keeping stakes to a modest level given the quality of racing on offer and this week very much being a marathon not a sprint.
However, cliché time I know, but a 6/4 winner at Taunton pays the same as a 6/4 winner at Cheltenham last time I checked so eyes down on today’s action.
This 3m 4f handicap chase will take some getting on the soft ground.
Broken Halo was heading the morning Betdaq Betting Exchange market for Paul Nicholls but is a hard one to evaluate. Whilst he has winning form on heavy he might be better suited by soft or even quicker ground.
However he was beginning to lose his way this season (form FPU) before finishing second in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup at Sandown last month. I say second, there were only two finishers and I wouldn’t want to get too carried away about his form being resurgent.
Nicholls also saddles Enrillo who is arguably in better form than his stablemate and arrives on the back of finishing second in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh.
This might be best left to the David Pipe trained grey First Lord De Cuet who has strung together two solid runs in class 3 level and for that fact alone puts him in front of most of his rivals.
Pipe is also heading to Cheltenham in good form with five winners from his last 18 runners.
MEANS BUSINESS
⭕ 3.50 Stratford Doyouknowwhatimean is up 10lb after a ridiculously easy success on heavy ground at Lingfield last time out and is napped to follow up for the Skeltons.
He travelled well throughout and won in a canter – he gets the same ground today and surely is still ahead of the handicapper despite then hike?
Force De Frap bids for a hat-trick after wins at Bangor and Ludlow but is up another 4lb for what was only a short head success last time out.
TIGER TO GO THREE UNDER PAR
⭕ 4.30 Plumpton Nordic Tiger can make a bold bid for the hat-trick despite the hike in the weights.
The step back up to two and half miles looks a positive and he can see off the likely warm favourite Colours On Canvas who was an easy winner of what looked a weak course and distance race last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.40 Taunton (win 10)
BET 2.0pts win FIRST LORD DE CUET
3.50 Stratford (win 10, nap)
BET 7.7pts win DOYOUKNOWWHATIMEAN
4.30 Plumpton (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win NORDIC TIGER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
